Match center
Start
05.04.2026 00:30 UTC
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05.04.2026 00:30 UTC
Finished
Primera A
Deportes Tolima - Santa Fe
2
:
2
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Deportes Tolima — 44%
Model estimate: win Deportes Tolima 43.7%, draw 29.3%, win Santa Fe 27.0%. Model favourite — Deportes Tolima.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Deportes Tolima - Santa Fe April 5, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Deportes Tolima.
Strongest: Deportes Tolima - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.21 / X 3.01 / 2 3.37
- 1X2 market: Deportes Tolima 41.9% / X 30.7% / Santa Fe 27.4%
- Glicko: Deportes Tolima 43.7% / X 29.3% / Santa Fe 27.0%
- Total 2.5: over probability 9.5%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.1%
1
41.8%
X
30.7%
2
27.4%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 8.3%
Over 2.5
36.3%
Under 2.5
63.7%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
42.8%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
0:0
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Deportes Tolima 44%
💹 Market
Deportes Tolima 4186%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Deportes Tolima - Santa Fe
Deportes Tolima: Win 1.73 Deportes Tolima: Draw 3.60 Santa Fe Win: 5.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.65 Individualnyy total golov Deportes Tolima bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Deportes Tolima menshe 1.5: 1.62 Individual…
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
2:2
Events
22
Statistics
26
Lineups
30
min
Event
Player
Team
5'
5' Normal Goal
Deportes Tolima
13'
13' Substitution 1 | M. Puerta | assist/sub out: Jeison Angulo
Santa Fe
19'
19' Normal Goal | H. Rodallega
Santa Fe
40'
40' Normal Goal | O. Fernández
Santa Fe
42'
42' Goal confirmed | O. Fernández
Santa Fe
44'
44' Yellow Card | J. Torres
Deportes Tolima
50'
50' Yellow Card | D. Pedrozo
Deportes Tolima
57'
57' Substitution 2 | C. Arrieta | assist/sub out: J. Mosquera
Pagani D / Ratti L
Deportes Tolima
Metric
Deportes Tolima
Santa Fe
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.27
1.25
final
Zablokirovannye udary
3
2
final
Shots off target
8
10
final
Shots on target
4
6
final
Udary vsego
15
18
final
Fouls soversheno
8
6
final
Red cards
1
0
final
Zheltye kartochki
4
2
final
Deportes Tolima
#2 Juan Quintero, #6 K. Toscano, #8 O. Fernández, #11 H. Rodallega, #12 W. Asprilla, #13 H. Palacios, #14 L. Palacios, #15 I. Scarpeta, #16 D. Torres, #20 Y. Velásquez
Santa Fe
#1 Neto Volpi, #4 D. Pedrozo, #5 J. Mera, #7 J. González, #9 L. Sandoval, #10 J. Torres, #17 C. Arrieta, #24 A. Parra, #32 S. Guzmán, #80 B. Rovira
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Martin Palacios
Seyvy
0
A. Parra
Santa Fe
football.player.assists
0
A. Parra
Santa Fe
Dribling popytki
2
A. Parra
Santa Fe
Edinoborstva vyigrano
4
A. Parra
Santa Fe
Seyvy
0
A. Parra
Santa Fe
football.player.minutes_played
90
A. Parra
Santa Fe
Klyuchevye pasy
13
A. Parra
Santa Fe
Pasy vsego
1
A. Parra
Santa Fe
Reyting (staryy)
6.3
A. Parra
Santa Fe
Shots on target
2
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Deportes Tolima
42.2%
43.7%
market and model agree
Draw
30.7%
29.3%
draw risk
Santa Fe
27.1%
27.0%
xG
-
1.22 : 0.89
Total 2.5
Over 9.5%
-
Under 90.5%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.02
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
43.7% / 29.3% / 27.0%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,621 / 1,516
Deportes Tolima / Santa Fe
RD
97 / 94
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.37
market consensus · no value · model 27.0%
X
3.01
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.21
market consensus · no value · model 43.7%
Double chance
X2
1.62
market consensus · no value · model 56.3%
12
1.35
market consensus · no value · model 70.7%
1X
1.30
market consensus · no value · model 73.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.67
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
2.20
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.54
market consensus · no value · model 9.5%
Under 2.5
1.45
market consensus · value +31.2% · model 90.5%
Both teams to score
No
1.67
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.12
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.22 45.1% | 2.22 45.1% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.20 45.5% | |
| X | 3.05 32.8% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.00 33.3% |
| 3.45 29.0% | 3.34 29.9% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.40 29.4% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport |
|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.65 60.6% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.67 59.9% |
| yes | 2.15 46.5% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.10 47.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.62 61.7% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.62 61.7% |
| home_away | 1.30 76.9% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% |
| home_draw | 1.30 76.9% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.30 76.9% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.10 90.9% | 1.10 90.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.53 65.4% | 1.50 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.62 38.2% | 2.50 40.0% |
| Over 3.5 | 5.25 19.1% | 5.00 20.0% |
| Over 4.5 | 10.00 10.0% | 11.00 9.1% |
| Over 5.5 | — | 29.00 3.5% |
| Under 0.5 | 6.50 15.4% | 6.50 15.4% |
| Under 1.5 | 2.45 40.8% | 2.45 40.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.48 67.6% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.15 87.0% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.04 96.2% | — |
Match center
Deportes Tolima
Founded
1954
Santa Fe
Founded
1941
Match center
Full head-to-head historyDeportes Tolima - Santa Fe
Deportes Tolima
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form