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Start
05.04.2026 19:30 UTC
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05.04.2026 19:30 UTC
Finished
Primera División
Concepción - Colo Colo
0
:
1
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Colo Colo — 51%
Model estimate: win Concepción 22.6%, draw 26.4%, win Colo Colo 50.9%. Model favourite — Colo Colo.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Concepción - Colo Colo April 5, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Colo Colo.
Strongest: Colo Colo - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.07 / X 3.50 / 2 1.76
- 1X2 market: Concepción 22.4% / X 26.0% / Colo Colo 51.6%
- Glicko: Concepción 22.6% / X 26.4% / Colo Colo 50.9%
- Total 2.5: over probability 13.6%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 10.0%
1
22.3%
X
26.0%
2
51.7%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.4%
Over 2.5
50.0%
Under 2.5
50.0%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 2
Main outcome
Agreement
4/4
Confidence
51.5%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
0:1
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Colo Colo 51%
💹 Market
Colo Colo 5162%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Concepción - Colo Colo
Concepción: Win 3.40 Concepción: Draw 3.40 Colo Win: 1.95 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Concepción bolshe 0.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov Concepción menshe 0.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov Co…
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
0:1
Events
0
Statistics
24
Lineups
11
Metric
Concepción
Colo Colo
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.19
0.67
final
Zablokirovannye udary
2
1
final
Shots off target
5
3
final
Shots on target
1
4
final
Udary vsego
8
8
final
Fouls soversheno
8
8
final
Zheltye kartochki
4
3
final
Offsides
2
0
final
Concepción
#1 F. De Paul, #2 J. Villagra, #5 V. Méndez, #6 T. Alarcon, #22 C. Aquino, #23 A. Vidal
Colo Colo
#21 N. Rodríguez, #22 M. Dávila
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
M. Dávila
Colo Colo
football.player.assists
0
M. Dávila
Colo Colo
Dribling popytki
3
M. Dávila
Colo Colo
Dribling uspeshno
1
M. Dávila
Colo Colo
Edinoborstva vyigrano
4
M. Dávila
Colo Colo
Fouls soversheno
1
M. Dávila
Colo Colo
Conceded golov
1
M. Dávila
Colo Colo
Seyvy
0
M. Dávila
Colo Colo
football.player.minutes_played
90
M. Dávila
Colo Colo
Klyuchevye pasy
13
M. Dávila
Colo Colo
Reyting (staryy)
6.7
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Concepción
22.5%
22.6%
Draw
25.6%
26.4%
draw risk
Colo Colo
51.9%
50.9%
market and model agree
xG
-
0.89 : 1.47
Total 2.5
Over 13.6%
-
Under 86.4%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.01
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
22.6% / 26.4% / 50.9%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,422 / 1,596
Concepción / Colo Colo
RD
137 / 120
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.76
market consensus · no value · model 50.9%
X
3.50
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
4.07
market consensus · no value · model 22.6%
Double chance
X2
1.19
market consensus · no value · model 77.4%
12
1.26
market consensus · no value · model 73.6%
1X
1.93
market consensus · no value · model 49.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.24
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.02
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
1.80
market consensus · line only
2 +1
2.45
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.88
market consensus · no value · model 13.6%
Under 2.5
1.88
market consensus · weak value +62.5% · model 86.4%
Both teams to score
No
1.93
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.77
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betfair | Marathonbet | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.14 24.2% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.10 24.4% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.15 24.1% | 4.00 25.0% | |
| X | 3.64 27.5% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.64 27.5% | 3.30 30.3% |
| 1.80 55.6% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.78 56.2% | 1.75 57.1% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Marathonbet | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.94 51.6% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.92 52.1% | 1.95 51.3% |
| yes | 1.77 56.5% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.77 56.5% | 1.75 57.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betfair | Marathonbet | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.19 84.0% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.20 83.3% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.29 77.5% |
| home_draw | 1.94 51.6% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.94 51.6% | 1.95 51.3% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 1xBet |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 0.75 | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 1.0 | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.25 | 1.12 89.3% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.24 80.7% |
| Over 1.75 | 1.30 76.9% |
| Over 2.0 | 1.40 71.4% |
| Over 2.25 | 1.62 61.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.88 53.2% |
| Over 2.75 | 2.07 48.3% |
| Over 3.0 | 2.48 40.3% |
| Over 3.25 | 2.77 36.1% |
| Over 3.5 | 3.08 32.5% |
| Over 3.75 | 3.80 26.3% |
| Over 4.0 | 5.15 19.4% |
| Over 4.25 | 5.50 18.2% |
| Over 4.5 | 5.90 17.0% |
| Over 5.0 | 9.30 10.8% |
Match center
Concepción
Founded
1966
Colo Colo
Founded
1925
Match center
Full head-to-head historyConcepción - Colo Colo
Concepción
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form