Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.6%
3 books
122.2%
X21.7%
256.2%
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
%
Market consensus
Forecast by market
Match result
Timisul Sag
22%
4.42
Draw
22%
4.27
Reshitsa
57%
1.63
Handicap
Timisul Sag (0)
28%
3.30
Reshitsa (0)
72%
1.29
Total
Over 2.5
65%
1.43
Under 2.5
35%
2.65
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
🧮
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Timisul Sag2:1Reshitsa
14.36
X4.15
21.59
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Timisul Sag22.2%24.2%
Draw21.7%21.6%draw risk
Reshitsa56.2%54.2%market and model agree
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P224.2% / 21.6% / 54.2%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating1,704 / 1,500
Timisul Sag / Reshitsa
RD249 / 350
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,207-2,201 / 800-2,200
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
21.62
market consensus · no value · model 54.2%
X4.22
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
14.21
market consensus · no value · model 24.2%
Double chance
121.18
market consensus · no value · model 78.4%
1X2.11
market consensus · no value · model 45.8%
X21.18
market consensus · no value · model 75.8%
Handicap
2 -11.93
market consensus · line only
2 01.29
market consensus · line only
1 +11.77
market consensus · line only
1 03.30
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.51.43
market consensus · line only
Under 2.52.64
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No2.45
market consensus · line only
Yes1.49
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
Outcome
Leon
no
2.4540.8%
yes
1.4967.1%
Double chance
Outcome
Baltbet
Betcity
12
1.1686.2%
1.1984.0%
1x
2.0548.8%
2.1646.3%
x2
1.1686.2%
1.1984.0%
First Half Winner
Outcome
Leon
4.6021.7%
X
2.5938.6%
2.1446.7%
Goals Over/Under First Half
Outcome
Leon
Over 1.5
2.1147.4%
Under 1.5
1.6859.5%
Match center
Odds · 3 bookmakers
Best price: 1 4.3 (Winline) · X 4.2 (Betcity) · 2 1.64 (Liga Stavok)
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