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Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage
Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage
Group D. 1-y Round 04.08.2026 17:45 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
04.08.2026 17:45 UTC Group D. 1-y Round
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Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage

Lokomotiv Moscow - CSKA Moscow

Football
Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow
- : -
Not started
CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow

Lokomotiv Moscow face CSKA Moscow on August 4, 2026 in the Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage.

Recent form (W-D-L): Lokomotiv Moscow 1-2-2, CSKA Moscow 1-2-2. These sides have met 2 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 CSKA Moscow — 37%

Pure model vs market (2 · CSKA Moscow): model 42% · market 35% Δ +7 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Lokomotiv Moscow36.4%
X · draw27.1%
2 · CSKA Moscow36.6%

Model estimate: win Lokomotiv Moscow 36.4%, draw 27.1%, win CSKA Moscow 36.6%. Model favourite — CSKA Moscow.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2CSKA Moscow (odds2.62) Score 0:1 Under 2.5 (odds2.00) Handicap H2 +-0 (odds1.90) confidence 50%
  • • Model backs TsSKA: probability 50% vs 38% on the line (odds 2.62)
  • • edge over the line +12 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 0:1
  • • Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~1 goals
  • • at line 2.5 (odds 2.00)
  • • Handicap F2 +0: score forecast 0:1 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 1.90).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lokomotiv Moscow - CSKA Moscow August 4, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Lokomotiv Moscow. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.55 / X 3.50 / 2 2.85

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.8% 4 books · best price +2.1%
1 37.4%
X 27.3%
2 35.3%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 2.60 ↑ 2.70
1X2 X 3.55 ↓ 3.50
1X2 P2 2.60 ↑ 2.70

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Cup
Best price across 6 books
1 2.66 Marathonbet
X 3.46 Marathonbet
2 2.67 Marathonbet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Lokomotiv Moscow
W-D-L 5-2-3 Scored 1.69 Conceded 1.33 xG 1.53 xGA 1.21 Corners 5.0
CSKA Moscow
W-D-L 5-2-3 Scored 1.61 Conceded 1.33 xG 1.46 xGA 1.20 Corners 7.0

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Lokomotiv Moscow
Rating 1699 xG 1.25 Win 34%
CSKA Moscow
Rating 1695 xG 1.35 Win 39%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Lokomotiv Moscow 2 : 1 CSKA Moscow
12.67
X3.48
22.66

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated03.08.2026 18:29 UTC
1 33%
X 34% ✓ favourite
2 33%
Score1:1 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:Yes Bet:X
Per AI data H2H: 1-0
Claude updated03.08.2026 18:34 UTC
1 35% ✓ favourite
X 30%
2 35%
Score1:1 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Under 2.5 golov za ~2.00

AI consensus:1

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 33% 34% 33% 1:1 Under 2.5 Yes X
Claude 35% 30% 35% 1:1 Under 2.5 No Under 2.5 golov za ~2.00

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Participant opinions
512 predictions Choose an outcome
1 21% 22
X 38% 40
2 40% 42
match_qualify match_qualify:w2 1.90 (35) - match_qualify:w1 1.90 (13)
Double chance X2 1.51 (6) - 12 1.33 (2)
Total TB 2.5 1.81 (114) - TM 2.5 2.02 (24) - TB 3.5 2.90 (5)
Both teams to score BTTS yes 1.60 (28) - BTTS no 2.19 (4)
Match center
Start 04.08.2026 17:45 UTC
Market 1 38.1% @ 2.55 / X 27.8% @ 3.50 / 2 34.1% @ 2.85
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community CSKA Moscow 40%
🤖 7 AI models Lokomotiv Moscow 34%
📐 Math model CSKA Moscow 37%
⚡ Humans and machines disagree
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Lokomotiv Moscow - CSKA Moscow

football, Lokomotiv M - TsSKA, 4 avgusta 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matcha. Vo skolko nachalo matcha Lokomotiv M - TsSKA, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Fonbet Cup Russia 2026/2027, Group D. 1-y Round.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Player opinions Stavka.tv 104 combined layer without duplicates
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lokomotiv Moscow 36.4% 36.4% market favourite
Draw 27.4% 27.1% draw risk
CSKA Moscow 36.2% 36.6% Glicko contrarian
xG - 1.25 : 1.35

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 36.4% / 27.1% / 36.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,429 / 1,600 Lokomotiv Moscow / CSKA Moscow
RD 254 / 291 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 920-1,937 / 1,017-2,182 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.85 Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 36.6%
X 3.50 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.55 Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 36.4%
Double chance
12 1.33 Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 72.9%
1X 1.45 Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 63.4%
X2 1.55 Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 63.6%
Handicap
2 -1 1.25 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 4.30 Fonbet · line only
2 0 2.02 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 3.95 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.78 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.05 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.25 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.63 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.25 44.4% 2.26 44.3%
yes 1.63 61.4% 1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.29 77.5% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2%
1x 1.48 67.6% 1.50 66.7% 1.45 69.0%
x2 1.48 67.6% 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.00 33.3%
X 2.27 44.1%
3.43 29.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.73 57.8%
Under 1 2.12 47.2%
Match center
Lokomotiv Moscow
L D W D L
2026-08-01 Premier League 26/27
Lokomotiv Moscow Dynamo Makhachkala 2:1 Lokomotiv Moscow
2026-07-26 Premier League 26/27
Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1:1 Akhmat
2026-07-14 Club Friendly Games 2026
Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1:0 CSKA Moscow
2026-06-27 Club Friendly Games 2026
Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0:0 Rodina Moscow
2026-05-17 Premier League 25/26
Lokomotiv Moscow CSKA Moscow 3:1 Lokomotiv Moscow
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.2 Conceded
5 Points
CSKA Moscow
D W L L D
2026-08-01 Premier League 26/27
CSKA Moscow 1:1 Krylia Sovetov CSKA Moscow
2026-07-24 Premier League 26/27
CSKA Moscow 2:1 Baltika CSKA Moscow
2026-07-18 Club Friendly Games 2026
Dynamo Moscow 5:2 CSKA Moscow CSKA Moscow
2026-07-14 Club Friendly Games 2026
Lokomotiv Moscow 1:0 CSKA Moscow CSKA Moscow
2026-07-04 Club Friendly Games 2026
CSKA Moscow 1:1 Arsenal Tula CSKA Moscow
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.8 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLokomotiv Moscow - CSKA Moscow

Lokomotiv Moscow
2 matches total
CSKA Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow: 1 (50%)
Draws:0 (0%)
CSKA Moscow: 1 (50%)
Biggest win CSKA Moscow 3:1 (2026-05-17) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (3:1, 2026-05-17) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 2

Match history

2026-07-14 Club Friendly Games 2026
Lokomotiv Moscow 1:0 CSKA Moscow
2026-05-17 Premier League 25/26
CSKA Moscow 3:1 Lokomotiv Moscow
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Lokomotiv Moscow
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 CSKA Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow Team comparison CSKA Moscow
0 Games 0
0 Wins 0
0 Draws 0
0 Losses 0
0 Scored 0
0 Conceded 0
0 Points 0
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
0 Shots on goal 0
0 Udary v stvor 0
0 Games 0
0 Wins 0
0 Draws 0
0 Losses 0
0 Scored 0
0 Conceded 0

Lokomotiv M CSKA 0 Games 0 Wins 0 Draws 0 Losses 0 Scored 0 Conceded 0 Points 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0 Glavnye trenery Glavnye trenery Mikhail Mikhaylovich Galaktionov Glavnye trenery Dmitriy Igorevich Igdisamov 0' Superfinala teper ne budet, a esche est izmeneniya v stadii playoff Cup Russia vozvraschaetsya! Vse o turnire — ot novogo reglamenta do sostava grupp 0' Privetstvuem vsekh lyubiteley futbola! Rady predlozhit vashemu vnimaniyu tekstovuyu onlayn-translyatsiyu matches pervogo tura gruppovogo etapa Kubka Russia — 2026/2027: «Lokomotiv» — CSKA. Eto soperniki po gruppe D. Nachalo moskovskogo derbi zaplanirovano na 20:45 po moskovskomu vremeni. Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 28% 20% 52% Double chance 24% 40% 36% Materialy po prognozam Pora vozvraschatsya domoy! Kto vyigraet RPL-2026/2027? Kto stanet luchshim klubom Moskvy v novom sezone RPL? CSKA and «Spartak» spasayut sezon, «Zenit» and «Krasnodar» — protiv! Talalaev otomstit «Zenitu», proverka ambitsiy Karsedo. Chego zhdat ot matches Kubka Russia Posled