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Fonbet Russian Cup. Path of the regions. First round
Fonbet Russian Cup. Path of the regions. First round
1-y raund 29.07.2026 12:00 UTC
29.07.2026 12:00 UTC 1-y raund
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Fonbet Russian Cup. Path of the regions. First round

Ilpar - Metallurg Asha

Football
I
Ilpar
- : -
Not started
M
Metallurg Asha
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Ilpar — 37%

Pure model vs market (1 · Ilpar): model 44% · market 36% Δ +8 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Ilpar37.1%
X · draw26.3%
2 · Metallurg Asha36.5%

Model estimate: win Ilpar 37.1%, draw 26.3%, win Metallurg Asha 36.5%. Model favourite — Ilpar.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Ilpar (odds2.50) Score 1:0 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Ilpar: probability 50% vs 40% on the line (odds 2.50)
  • • edge over the line +10 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ilpar - Metallurg Asha July 29, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Metallurg Asha. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.65 / X 3.61 / 2 2.63

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.5%
1 36.5%
X 26.8%
2 36.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Ilpar 1 : 5 Metallurg Asha
12.47
X3.34
22.45

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 29.07.2026 12:00 UTC
Match center

Ilpar - Metallurg Asha

Football, Ilpar - Metallurg A, 29 iyulya 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matches. Vo skolko nachalo matches Ilpar - Metallurg A, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Fonbet Cup Russia 2026/2027, 1 round.

Form 3/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Overview
More needed
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Ilpar 36.7% 37.1% Glicko contrarian
Draw 26.6% 26.3% draw risk
Metallurg Asha 36.7% 36.5% market favourite

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 37.1% / 26.3% / 36.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Ilpar / Metallurg Asha
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.54 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 36.5%
X 3.55 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.55 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 37.1%
Double chance
12 1.24 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 73.7%
1X 1.46 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 63.5%
X2 1.46 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 62.9%
Handicap
2 0 1.87 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.87 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.92 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.82 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.06 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.77 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.06 48.5%
yes 1.77 56.5%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.24 80.7% 1.24 80.7%
1x 1.43 69.9% 1.48 67.6%
x2 1.44 69.4% 1.47 68.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.32 30.1%
X 2.18 45.9%
3.29 30.4%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.88 53.2%
Under 1 1.93 51.8%
Match center
Ilpar
D D D
21.08.2025 Championat
Ilpar 21.08.2025 Fonbet Cup Russia Tyumen 4 : 1 Ilpar 1/128 finala
06.08.2025 Championat
Ilpar 06.08.2025 Fonbet Cup Russia Ilpar 3 : 2 Nosta 1/256 finala
30.07.2024 Championat
Ilpar 30.07.2024 Fonbet Cup Russia Ilpar 0 : 2 Uralets-TS 1/256 finala
0 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
- Scored
- Conceded
0 Points
Metallurg Asha
D D D
02.08.2023 Championat
02.08.2023 Fonbet Cup Russia Ilpar 1 : 3 Torpedo Miass 1/256 finala Metallurg Asha
19.11.2021 Championat
19.11.2021 Russia - Tretiy Division Raspadskaya 1 : 0 Ilpar 7th Place Final. 1-y Round 1 Wins 0 Draws 4 Losses 1 Scored 2 Conceded 6+1 Kartochki +1 +1 0 +3 -1 -3 -1 -3 0 -2 15 30 45 60 75 Metallurg Asha
23.10.2021 Championat
23.10.2021 Russia - Tretiy Division Metallurg A Metallurg Asha
0 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
- Scored
- Conceded
0 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyIlpar - Metallurg Asha

Ilpar
0 matches total
Metallurg Asha
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Ilpar
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Metallurg Asha
Ilpar Team comparison Metallurg Asha
0 Games 0
0 Wins 0
0 Draws 0
0 Losses 0
0 Scored 0
0 Conceded 0
0 Points 0
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
0 Shots on goal 0
0 Udary v stvor 0
0 Games 0
0 Wins 0
0 Draws 0
0 Losses 0
0 Scored 0
0 Conceded 0

Ilpar Metallurg A 0 Games 0 Wins 0 Draws 0 Losses 0 Scored 0 Conceded 0 Points 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0 Glavnye trenery Glavnye trenery Maksim Alekseevich Shumaylov Glavnye trenery Vladimir Mikhaylovich Usin Rezultaty golosovaniya Iskhod v osnovnoe vremya 33% 23% 44% Double chance 28% 38% 34% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1317538' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Fonbet Cup Russia Turnirnaya Standings