Russia. League 1. Season 26/27
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Torpedo Moscow — 38%
Pure model vs market (2 · Torpedo Moscow): model 51% · market 37% Δ +14 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Arsenal Tula 32.0%, draw 29.7%, win Torpedo Moscow 38.3%. Model favourite — Torpedo Moscow.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.80 55.6% | 1.80 55.6% |
| yes | 1.95 51.3% | 1.91 52.4% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.32 75.8% | 1.34 74.6% | 1.35 74.1% |
| 1x | 1.47 68.0% | 1.49 67.1% | 1.48 67.6% |
| x2 | 1.36 73.5% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.40 71.4% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.84 26.0% | |
| X | 1.97 50.8% |
| 3.30 30.3% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 2.17 46.1% |
| Under 1 | 1.61 62.1% |
Arsenal Tula
Torpedo Moscow
Full head-to-head historyArsenal Tula - Torpedo Moscow
The Arsenal Tula - Torpedo Moscow breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
