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Russia. League 1. Season 26/27
Russia. League 1. Season 26/27
01.08.2026 13:00 UTC
01.08.2026 13:00 UTC
Not started

Russia. League 1. Season 26/27

Volga Ulyanovsk - Chelyabinsk

Football
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
- : -
Not started
Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Volga Ulyanovsk — 39%

Pure model vs market (1 · Volga Ulyanovsk): model 36% · market 38% Δ −2 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Volga Ulyanovsk38.6%
X · draw29.0%
2 · Chelyabinsk32.4%

Model estimate: win Volga Ulyanovsk 38.6%, draw 29.0%, win Chelyabinsk 32.4%. Model favourite — Volga Ulyanovsk.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds3.19) Score 1:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 31% on the line (odds 3.19)
  • • edge over the line +19 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Volga Ulyanovsk - Chelyabinsk August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Volga Ulyanovsk. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.45 / X 3.20 / 2 2.90

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.5%
1 38.3%
X 29.3%
2 32.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 2.45 → 2.45
1X2 X 3.20 → 3.20
1X2 P2 2.90 → 2.90

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 13:00 UTC
Market 1 38.3% @ 2.45 / X 29.3% @ 3.20 / 2 32.4% @ 2.90
Match center

Volga Ulyanovsk - Chelyabinsk

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Volga Ulyanovsk 38.7% 38.6% market and model agree
Draw 29.4% 29.0% draw risk
Chelyabinsk 31.9% 32.4%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 38.6% / 29.0% / 32.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,409 / 1,560 Volga Ulyanovsk / Chelyabinsk
RD 224 / 239 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 962-1,857 / 1,083-2,038 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.90 Fonbet · no value · model 32.4%
X 3.20 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.45 Fonbet · no value · model 38.6%
Double chance
12 1.33 Fonbet · no value · model 71.0%
1X 1.40 Fonbet · no value · model 67.6%
X2 1.52 Fonbet · no value · model 61.4%
Handicap
2 -1 1.19 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 5.20 Fonbet · line only
2 0 2.00 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 4.00 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.18 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.82 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.92 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6%
yes 1.92 52.1% 1.88 53.2%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.31 76.3% 1.32 75.8% 1.33 75.2%
1x 1.34 74.6% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4%
x2 1.51 66.2% 1.53 65.4% 1.52 65.8%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.24 30.9%
X 2.04 49.0%
3.69 27.1%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 2.09 47.9%
Under 1 1.66 60.2%
Match center
Volga Ulyanovsk
W L L D L
2026-07-25 1. Liga 26/27
Volga Ulyanovsk Volga Ulyanovsk 2:0 Neftekhimik
2026-07-19 1. Liga 26/27
Volga Ulyanovsk Torpedo Moscow 3:1 Volga Ulyanovsk
2026-07-11 1. Liga 26/27
Volga Ulyanovsk Volga Ulyanovsk 1:2 Yenisey
2026-06-28 Club Friendly Games 2026
Volga Ulyanovsk Spartak Kostroma 1:1 Volga Ulyanovsk
2026-06-22 Club Friendly Games 2026
Volga Ulyanovsk Torpedo Moscow 1:0 Volga Ulyanovsk
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
4 Points
Chelyabinsk
L L W D L
2026-07-25 1. Liga 26/27
Chelyabinsk 1:2 Nizhny Novgorod Chelyabinsk
2026-07-19 1. Liga 26/27
Veles Moscow 1:0 Chelyabinsk Chelyabinsk
2026-07-13 1. Liga 26/27
Chelyabinsk 3:1 SKA Khabarovsk Chelyabinsk
2026-05-16 1. Liga 25/26
Chelyabinsk 2:2 Shinnik Chelyabinsk
2026-05-08 1. Liga 25/26
Rodina Moscow 2:0 Chelyabinsk Chelyabinsk
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.6 Conceded
4 Points