Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Spartak Moscow — 49%
Pure model vs market (2 · Spartak Moscow): model 42% · market 49% Δ −7 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Akhmat 25.3%, draw 26.1%, win Spartak Moscow 48.6%. Model favourite — Spartak Moscow.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.98 50.5% | 2.02 49.5% |
| yes | 1.78 56.2% | 1.80 55.6% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.31 76.3% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.30 76.9% |
| 1x | 1.87 53.5% | 1.88 53.2% | 1.85 54.1% |
| x2 | 1.27 78.7% | 1.26 79.4% | 1.28 78.1% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 4.34 23.0% | |
| X | 2.23 44.8% |
| 2.49 40.2% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.80 55.6% |
| Under 1 | 1.95 51.3% |
Akhmat
Spartak Moscow
Full head-to-head historyAkhmat - Spartak Moscow
The Akhmat - Spartak Moscow breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
