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Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27
Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27
01.08.2026 15:15 UTC
01.08.2026 15:15 UTC
Not started

Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27

Krasnodar - Fakel

Football
Krasnodar
Krasnodar
- : -
Not started
F
Fakel
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Krasnodar — 71%

Pure model vs market (1 · Krasnodar): model 60% · market 72% Δ −12 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Krasnodar ✓ Pick71.2%
market72%
X · draw18.3%
market18%
2 · Fakel10.4%
market10%

Model estimate: win Krasnodar 71.2%, draw 18.3%, win Fakel 10.4%. Model favourite — Krasnodar.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Krasnodar (odds1.33) Score 2:1 Over 2.5 (odds1.83) Handicap H2 +1.5 (odds1.82) confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Krasnodar: probability 50% vs 75% on the line (odds 1.33)
  • • no edge over the line (-25 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1
  • • Total: Over 2.5: model expects a total of ~3 goals
  • • at line 2.5 (odds 1.83)
  • • Handicap F2 +1.5: score forecast 2:1 (diff +1) covers the line (odds 1.82).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Krasnodar - Fakel August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Krasnodar. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.33 / X 5.20 / 2 9.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%
1 ✓ Pick 71.6%
X 18.3%
2 10.0%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 1.33 → 1.33
1X2 X 5.20 → 5.20
1X2 P2 9.50 → 9.50

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 15:15 UTC
Market 1 71.6% @ 1.33 / X 18.3% @ 5.20 / 2 10.0% @ 9.50
Match center

Krasnodar - Fakel

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Krasnodar 72.0% 71.2% market and model agree
Draw 18.2% 18.3% draw risk
Fakel 9.8% 10.4%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 71.2% / 18.3% / 10.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,700 / 1,374 Krasnodar / Fakel
RD 291 / 291 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,118-2,283 / 791-1,956 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 9.50 Fonbet · no value · model 10.4%
X 5.20 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.33 Fonbet · no value · model 71.2%
Double chance
12 1.18 Fonbet · no value · model 81.7%
1X 1.07 Fonbet · no value · model 89.6%
X2 3.35 Fonbet · no value · model 28.8%
Handicap
2 -1 2.50 Fonbet · line only
2 0 6.20 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.50 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.07 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.83 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.97 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.60 Fonbet · line only
Yes 2.25 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.60 62.5% 1.64 61.0%
yes 2.25 44.4% 2.27 44.1%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.15 87.0% 1.16 86.2% 1.18 84.8%
1x 1.04 96.2% 1.06 94.3% 1.07 93.5%
x2 3.36 29.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.35 29.9%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.78 56.2%
X 2.47 40.5%
8.80 11.4%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.73 57.8%
Under 1 2.04 49.0%
Match center
Krasnodar
W W D W L
2026-07-26 Premier League 26/27
Krasnodar Rubin 1:3 Krasnodar
2026-06-25 Club Friendly Games 2026
Krasnodar Krasnodar 5:1 PSC Dinskaya
2026-05-24 Russian Cup 25/26, Final
Krasnodar Spartak Moscow 1:1 Krasnodar
2026-05-17 Premier League 25/26
Krasnodar Krasnodar 3:0 Orenburg
2026-05-11 Premier League 25/26
Krasnodar Dynamo Moscow 2:1 Krasnodar
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
10 Points
Fakel
L W D W D
2026-07-25 Premier League 26/27
Fakel 1:2 Dynamo Makhachkala Fakel
2026-05-16 1. Liga 25/26
Volga Ulyanovsk 0:3 Fakel Fakel
2026-05-08 1. Liga 25/26
Fakel 0:0 SKA Khabarovsk Fakel
2026-05-03 1. Liga 25/26
Fakel 2:0 Yenisey Fakel
2026-04-27 1. Liga 25/26
Torpedo Moscow 2:2 Fakel Fakel
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.8 Conceded
8 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyKrasnodar - Fakel

Krasnodar
0 matches total
Fakel
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history