Russia. League 2. Division B. Group 2
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Tver — 38%
Pure model vs market (1 · Tver): model 47% · market 37% Δ +10 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Tver 38.0%, draw 31.0%, win Cherepovets 31.0%. Model favourite — Tver.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.30 76.9% | 1.36 73.5% |
| 1x | 1.29 77.5% | 1.36 73.5% |
| x2 | 1.42 70.4% | 1.49 67.1% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.69 59.2% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.71 58.5% | |
| 2.00 50.0% | 2.03 49.3% | 2.03 49.3% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1.88 53.2% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.90 52.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.78 56.2% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.80 55.6% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.40 41.7% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.52 39.7% | |
| X | 2.85 35.1% | 2.90 34.5% | 2.99 33.4% |
| 2.90 34.5% | 2.90 34.5% | 3.04 32.9% |
Full head-to-head historyTver - Cherepovets
The Tver - Cherepovets breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
