Scotland. Premier League
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 St Johnstone — 44%
Pure model vs market (1 · St Johnstone): model 52% · market 43% Δ +9 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win St Johnstone 44.0%, draw 27.4%, win Kilmarnock 28.6%. Model favourite — St Johnstone.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.10 47.6% |
| yes | 1.68 59.5% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.27 78.7% | 1.29 77.5% |
| 1x | 1.29 77.5% | 1.30 76.9% |
| x2 | 1.62 61.7% | 1.65 60.6% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.74 36.5% | |
| X | 2.30 43.5% |
| 3.70 27.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.71 58.5% |
| Under 1 | 2.06 48.5% |
St Johnstone
Kilmarnock
Full head-to-head historySt Johnstone - Kilmarnock
The St Johnstone - Kilmarnock breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
