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Segunda Liga
Segunda Liga Portugal
04.04.2026 10:00 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 10:00 UTC
Finished

Segunda Liga

Portugal

Sporting CP B - Penafiel

Portugal Football
Stadium CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira
Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
1 : 2
Finished
Penafiel
Penafiel

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sporting CP B - Penafiel April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sporting CP B.

Line favourite market consensus: Sporting CP B. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.08 / X 3.33 / 2 3.23
  • 1X2 market: Sporting CP B 44.0% / X 27.5% / Penafiel 28.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 55.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.1%
1 44.1%
X 27.5%
2 28.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%
Over 2.5 44.1%
Under 2.5 55.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 10:00 UTC
Match center

Sporting CP B - Penafiel

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.23 market consensus · line only
X 3.33 market consensus · line only
1 2.08 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.68 market consensus · line only
12 1.30 market consensus · line only
1X 1.31 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.71 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.31 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.26 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.33 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.13 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.68 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.82 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.89 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
2.09 47.9% 2.11 47.4% 2.05 48.8% 2.15 46.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.09 47.9%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.20 31.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.25 30.8% 3.40 29.4%
3.15 31.8% 3.27 30.6% 3.20 31.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.26 30.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet William Hill
no 1.78 56.2% 1.84 54.4% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.85 54.1%
yes 1.96 51.0% 1.86 53.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.86 53.8% 1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet William Hill
draw_away 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5% 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25 — 1.18 84.8%
Over 1.5 — 1.32 75.8%
Over 1.75 — 1.42 70.4%
Over 2.0 — 1.56 64.1%
Over 2.25 1.93 51.8% 1.83 54.6%
Over 2.5 — 2.12 47.2%
Over 2.75 — 2.42 41.3%
Over 3.0 — 3.06 32.7%
Over 3.25 — 3.38 29.6%
Over 3.5 — 3.80 26.3%
Over 3.75 — 4.80 20.8%
Over 4.0 — 6.80 14.7%
Over 4.25 — 7.20 13.9%
Under 2.25 1.85 54.1% —
Match center

Full head-to-head historySporting CP B - Penafiel

Sporting CP B
0 matches total
Penafiel
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history