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Segunda Liga
Segunda Liga Portugal
05.04.2026 14:30 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 14:30 UTC
Finished

Segunda Liga

Portugal

União de Leiria - Lusitânia Lourosa

Portugal Football
Stadium Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa
Capacity 23 888
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
0 : 0
Finished
Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 União de Leiria — 50%

1 · União de Leiria50.4%
X · draw25.1%
2 · Lusitânia Lourosa24.6%

Model estimate: win União de Leiria 50.4%, draw 25.1%, win Lusitânia Lourosa 24.6%. Model favourite — União de Leiria.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction União de Leiria - Lusitânia Lourosa April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like União de Leiria.

Strongest: União de Leiria - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.84 / X 3.46 / 2 3.86
  • 1X2 market: União de Leiria 49.7% / X 26.5% / Lusitânia Lourosa 23.8%
  • Glicko: União de Leiria 50.4% / X 25.1% / Lusitânia Lourosa 24.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 14.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.2%
1 49.8%
X 26.5%
2 23.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.4%
Over 2.5 52.5%
Under 2.5 47.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 50.3%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 14:30 UTC
Stadium Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa (Leiria)
Capacity 23,888

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model União de Leiria 50%
💹 Market União de Leiria 4971%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

União de Leiria - Lusitânia Lourosa

União de Leiria: Win 1.73 União de Leiria: Draw 3.30 Lusitânia Lourosa Win: 4.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov União de Leiria bolshe 1.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov União de Leiria menshe 1.5: 1.80 I…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:0
Events 17
Statistics 22
Lineups 1
min Event Player Team
6' 6' Yellow Card | Marcelo União de Leiria
12' 12' Yellow Card União de Leiria
26' 26' Yellow Card Lusitânia Lourosa
37' 37' Yellow Card | R. Martins Lusitânia Lourosa
51' 51' Yellow Card Lusitânia Lourosa
59' 59' Substitution 4 | B. Faria | assist/sub out: Silverio Lusitânia Lourosa
59' 59' Substitution 5 | R. Martins | assist/sub out: J. Silva Lusitânia Lourosa
61' 61' Yellow Card | M. Pires União de Leiria
Metric União de Leiria Lusitânia Lourosa SStats
Zablokirovannye udary 6 1 final
Shots off target 11 3 final
Shots on target 9 1 final
Udary vsego 26 5 final
Fouls soversheno 14 15 final
Zheltye kartochki 4 3 final
Offsides 3 0 final
Ball possession, % 53 47 final
União de Leiria #21 M. Pires
Player Team Metric SStats
M. Pires União de Leiria football.player.assists 0
M. Pires União de Leiria Dribling popytki 3
M. Pires União de Leiria Edinoborstva vyigrano 8
M. Pires União de Leiria Fouls soversheno 1
M. Pires União de Leiria Seyvy 0
M. Pires União de Leiria football.player.minutes_played 90
M. Pires União de Leiria Tochnost pasov % 3
M. Pires União de Leiria Klyuchevye pasy 38
M. Pires União de Leiria Pasy vsego 1
M. Pires União de Leiria Reyting (staryy) 7
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
União de Leiria 50.1% 50.4% market and model agree
Draw 26.1% 25.1% draw risk
Lusitânia Lourosa 23.8% 24.6%
xG - 1.59 : 1.03
Total 2.5 Over 14.4% - Under 85.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 50.4% / 25.1% / 24.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,540 / 1,463 União de Leiria / Lusitânia Lourosa
RD 75 / 77 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.86 market consensus · no value · model 24.6%
X 3.46 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.84 market consensus · no value · model 50.4%
Double chance
X2 1.85 market consensus · no value · model 49.6%
12 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 74.9%
1X 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 75.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.93 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.48 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.90 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.10 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.79 market consensus · no value · model 14.4%
Under 2.5 1.98 market consensus · weak value +69.5% · model 85.6%
Both teams to score
No 2.07 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.68 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
1.83 54.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.80 55.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1%
X 3.65 27.4% 3.48 28.7% 3.25 30.8% 3.45 29.0% 3.60 27.8% 3.48 28.7%
3.60 27.8% 3.98 25.1% 4.00 25.0% 3.95 25.3% 3.80 26.3% 3.98 25.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet William Hill
no 2.03 49.3% 2.08 48.1% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8%
yes 1.73 57.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet William Hill
draw_away 1.86 53.8% 1.83 54.6% 1.93 51.8% 1.83 54.6% 1.86 53.8% 1.80 55.6%
home_away 1.27 78.7% 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5% 1.22 82.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.21 82.6% 1.20 83.3% 1.27 78.7% 1.20 83.3% 1.21 82.6% 1.25 80.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.12 89.3%
Over 1.5 — 1.22 82.0%
Over 1.75 — 1.27 78.7%
Over 2.0 — 1.35 74.1%
Over 2.25 — 1.55 64.5%
Over 2.5 1.81 55.3% 1.79 55.9%
Over 2.75 — 1.93 51.8%
Over 3.0 — 2.24 44.6%
Over 3.25 — 2.52 39.7%
Over 3.5 — 2.74 36.5%
Over 3.75 — 3.28 30.5%
Over 4.0 — 4.40 22.7%
Over 4.25 — 4.70 21.3%
Under 2.5 1.97 50.8% —
Match center
União de Leiria
Founded 1966
Lusitânia Lourosa
Founded 1924
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.