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Serie A
Serie A Italy
08.01.2026 19:45 UTC Match prediction
08.01.2026 19:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

AC Milan - Genoa

Italy Football
AC Milan
AC Milan
1 : 1
Finished
Genoa
Genoa

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction AC Milan - Genoa January 8, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AC Milan.

Line favourite market consensus: AC Milan. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.48 / X 4.09 / 2 7.85
  • 1X2 market: AC Milan 64.4% / X 23.4% / Genoa 12.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 56.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 64.5%
X 23.3%
2 12.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.3%
Over 2.5 43.6%
Under 2.5 56.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 08.01.2026 19:45 UTC
Match center

AC Milan - Genoa

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.87 market consensus · line only
X 4.09 market consensus · line only
1 1.48 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.70 market consensus · line only
12 1.24 market consensus · line only
1X 1.09 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.71 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.99 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 6.88 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.46 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.20 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.70 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.56 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.35 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.50 66.7%
X 4.12 24.3%
8.14 12.3%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.46 68.5% 1.49 67.1% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.44 69.4%
X 4.00 25.0% 4.00 25.0% 4.22 23.7% 4.00 25.0% 4.05 24.7% 4.00 25.0%
7.90 12.7% 8.40 11.9% 7.90 12.7% 7.00 14.3% 8.00 12.5% 8.00 12.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Superbet
no 1.55 64.5% 1.59 62.9% 1.56 64.1% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.60 62.5% 1.54 64.9%
yes 2.35 42.6% 2.37 42.2% 2.29 43.7% 2.38 42.0% 2.32 43.1% 2.30 43.5% 2.29 43.7% 2.45 40.8% 2.45 40.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 2.62 38.2% 2.68 37.3% 2.62 38.2% 2.62 38.2% 2.67 37.5% 2.77 36.1%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.27 78.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.26 79.4% 1.27 78.7%
home_draw 1.08 92.6% 1.11 90.1% 1.10 90.9% 1.11 90.1% 1.10 90.9% 1.11 90.1%
Match center
AC Milan
W W D W W
02.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 1:0 CagliariCagliari
28.12 11:30 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 3:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
14.12 11:30 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 2:2 SassuoloSassuolo
08.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 3:2 TorinoTorino
29.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 1:0 LazioLazio
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
13 Points
Genoa
D L L L W
03.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:1 PisaPisa
29.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:3 AS RomaAS Roma
21.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:1 AtalantaAtalanta
14.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:2 InterInter
08.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 2:1 UdineseUdinese
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.6 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAC Milan - Genoa

AC Milan
1 matches total
Genoa
AC Milan: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Genoa: 0 (0%)
Biggest win AC Milan 2:1 (05.05 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 05.05 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 2

Match history

05.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan
2:1
Genoa