Match center
Start
28.09.2025 18:45 UTC
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28.09.2025 18:45 UTC
Finished
Serie A
AC Milan - Napoli
2
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction AC Milan - Napoli September 28, 2025
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AC Milan.
Line favourite market consensus: AC Milan. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.90 / X 3.45 / 2 4.23
- 1X2 market: AC Milan 50.0% / X 27.6% / Napoli 22.5%
- Total 2.5: over probability 53.5%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 5.3%
1
50.0%
X
27.5%
2
22.5%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5
46.6%
Under 2.5
53.4%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
AC Milan - Napoli
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.24
market consensus · line only
X
3.45
market consensus · line only
1
1.90
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.90
market consensus · line only
12
1.31
market consensus · line only
1X
1.23
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.98
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.47
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
4.00
market consensus · line only
2 +1
7.83
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.05
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.79
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.89
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.87
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 1.92 52.1% | |
| X | 3.54 28.3% |
| 4.40 22.7% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.87 53.5% | 1.86 53.8% | 1.94 51.6% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.95 51.3% | |
| X | 3.45 29.0% | 3.55 28.2% | 3.59 27.9% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.55 28.2% |
| 4.20 23.8% | 4.50 22.2% | 4.19 23.9% | 4.20 23.8% | 4.33 23.1% | 4.35 23.0% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.85 54.1% | 1.92 52.1% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.94 51.6% |
| yes | 1.85 54.1% | 1.89 52.9% | 1.81 55.3% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.92 52.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.90 52.6% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.91 52.4% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.33 75.2% |
| home_draw | 1.22 82.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.24 80.7% |
Match center
AC Milan
W
W
W
L
W
20.09 18:45 UTC
Serie A
AC Milan
3:0
Udinese
Udinese
14.09 18:45 UTC
Serie A
AC Milan
1:0
Bologna
Bologna
29.08 18:45 UTC
Serie A
AC Milan
2:0
Lecce
Lecce
23.08 18:45 UTC
Serie A
AC Milan
1:2
Cremonese
Cremonese
24.05 18:45 UTC
Serie A
AC Milan
2:0
Monza
4
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
1.8
Scored
0.4
Conceded
12
Points
Napoli
W
W
W
W
W
22.09 18:45 UTC
Serie A
Napoli
3:2
Pisa
Pisa
13.09 18:45 UTC
Serie A
Napoli
3:1
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
30.08 18:45 UTC
Serie A
Napoli
1:0
Cagliari
Cagliari
23.08 16:30 UTC
Serie A
Napoli
2:0
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
23.05 18:45 UTC
Serie A
Napoli
2:0
Cagliari
Cagliari
5
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
2.2
Scored
0.6
Conceded
15
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAC Milan - Napoli
AC Milan
1
matches total
AC Milan: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Napoli: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
Napoli 0:2 (29.10 19:45 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
2 goals (0:2, 29.10 19:45 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
29.10 19:45 UTC
Serie A
Serie A
AC Milan
0:2
Napoli
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