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Serie A
Serie A Italy
21.03.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction
21.03.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

AC Milan - Torino

Italy Football
Stadium Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Referee Francesco Fourneau
Capacity 80 018
AC Milan
AC Milan
3 : 2
Finished
Torino
Torino
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 AC Milan — 60%

1 · AC Milan ✓ Pick60.1%
market70%
X · draw23.6%
market20%
2 · Torino16.3%
market10%

Model estimate: win AC Milan 60.1%, draw 23.6%, win Torino 16.3%. Model favourite — AC Milan.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction AC Milan - Torino March 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AC Milan.

Strongest: AC Milan - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.36 / X 4.83 / 2 9.12
  • 1X2 market: AC Milan 69.9% / X 19.7% / Torino 10.5%
  • Glicko: AC Milan 60.1% / X 23.6% / Torino 16.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 37.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 ✓ Pick 69.9%
X 19.7%
2 10.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 52.4%
Under 2.5 47.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 65.8%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 21.03.2026 17:00 UTC
Stadium Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (Milan)
Referee Francesco Fourneau
Capacity 80,018

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model AC Milan 60%
💹 Market AC Milan 6989%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

AC Milan - Torino

AC Milan: Win 1.38 AC Milan: Draw 4.84 Torino Win: 9.76 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.92 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.99 Individualnyy total golov AC Milan bolshe 1.5: 1.55 Individualnyy total golov AC Milan menshe 1.5: 2.49 Individualnyy total golov Torino bolshe…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:2
Events 19
Statistics 24
Lineups 45
min Event Player Team
9' 9' Yellow Card | F. Tomori Sharath Murari AC Milan
36' 36' Normal Goal | S. Pavlović AC Milan
44' 44' Normal Goal | G. Simeone Torino
46' 46' Substitution 1 | F. Tomori | assist/sub out: Z. Athekame Sharath Murari AC Milan
54' 54' Normal Goal | A. Rabiot | assist/sub out: C. Pulišić AC Milan
56' 56' Normal Goal | Y. Fofana | assist/sub out: Z. Athekame Thomas Dähne AC Milan
64' 64' Substitution 1 | M. Prati | assist/sub out: E. İlkhan Torino
64' 64' Substitution 2 | D. Zapata | assist/sub out: C. Adams D. Peretz Torino
Metric AC Milan Torino SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.49 2.25 final
Zablokirovannye udary 6 3 final
Shots off target 3 9 final
Shots on target 6 7 final
Udary vsego 15 19 final
Fouls soversheno 9 10 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 1 final
Offsides 1 2 final
AC Milan #5 K. De Winter, #9 Niclas Füllkrug, #11 Christian Pulišić, #12 A. Rabiot, #14 L. Modric, #16 M. Maignan, #19 Youssouf Fofana, #23 F. Tomori, #31 S. Pavlovic, #33 D. Bartesaghi, #56 A. Saelemaekers
Torino #1 A. Paleari, #4 M. Prati, #10 N. Vlasic, #16 M. Pedersen, #18 G. Simeone, #23 Saúl Coco, #33 Rafael Obrador, #44 A. Ismajli, #66 G. Gineitis, #77 E. Ebosse, #91 D. Zapata
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Jashari AC Milan Seyvy 0
A. Rabiot AC Milan football.player.assists 0
A. Rabiot AC Milan Dribling popytki 1
A. Rabiot AC Milan Dribling uspeshno 2
A. Rabiot AC Milan Edinoborstva vsego 3
A. Rabiot AC Milan Edinoborstva vyigrano 6
A. Rabiot AC Milan Fouls soversheno 1
A. Rabiot AC Milan football.player.goals 1
A. Rabiot AC Milan Seyvy 0
A. Rabiot AC Milan football.player.minutes_played 90
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
AC Milan 70.7% 60.1% market and model agree
Draw 19.4% 23.6% draw risk
Torino 9.9% 16.3%
xG - 1.71 : 0.76
Total 2.5 Over 37.8% - Under 62.2%
Model check - - Difference 0.11
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.11

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 60.1% / 23.6% / 16.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,670 / 1,477 AC Milan / Torino
RD 77 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 9.09 market consensus · no value · model 16.3%
X 4.87 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.36 market consensus · no value · model 60.1%
Double chance
X2 3.13 market consensus · no value · model 39.9%
12 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 76.4%
1X 1.07 market consensus · no value · model 83.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.19 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.45 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 6.90 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.34 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.82 market consensus · no value · model 37.8%
Under 2.5 2.00 market consensus · value +24.4% · model 62.2%
Both teams to score
No 1.67 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.13 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.36 73.5%
X 5.37 18.6%
8.67 11.5%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.37 73.0% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4%
X 4.70 21.3% 4.95 20.2% 5.09 19.7% 4.50 22.2% 5.00 20.0% 5.00 20.0%
7.70 13.0% 9.70 10.3% 9.65 10.4% 8.50 11.8% 8.50 11.8% 9.25 10.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.64 61.0% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7%
yes 2.10 47.6% 2.14 46.7% 2.14 46.7% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.16 46.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 3.00 33.3% 3.22 31.1% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.15 31.8% 3.10 32.3%
home_away 1.14 87.7% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8% 1.14 87.7%
home_draw 1.07 93.5% 1.08 92.6% 1.08 92.6% 1.08 92.6% 1.09 91.7% 1.05 95.2%
Match center
AC Milan
Founded 1899
Torino
Founded 1906
Match center
AC Milan
RL R. Loftus-Cheek Broken jawbone
RL Rafael Leão Muscle Injury
Torino
ZA Z. Aboukhlal Muscle Injury
ZS Zannetos Savva Knee Injury
AC Milan Founded: 1899
Torino Founded: 1906
Match center
AC Milan
L W W L D
15.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 0:1 LazioLazio
08.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 1:0 InterInter
01.03 11:30 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 2:0 CremoneseCremonese
22.02 17:00 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 0:1 ParmaParma
18.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 1:1 ComoComo
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
0.6 Conceded
7 Points
Torino
W L W L L
13.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Torino 4:1 ParmaParma
06.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Torino 1:2 NapoliNapoli
01.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Torino 2:0 LazioLazio
22.02 11:30 UTC Serie A
Torino 0:3 GenoaGenoa
15.02 17:00 UTC Serie A
Torino 1:2 BolognaBologna
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAC Milan - Torino

AC Milan
1 matches total
Torino
AC Milan: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Torino: 0 (0%)
Biggest win AC Milan 3:2 (08.12 19:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (3:2, 08.12 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 3

Match history

08.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan
3:2
Torino
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.