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Serie A
Serie A Italy
11.04.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction
11.04.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

AC Milan - Udinese

Italy Futbol
Stadium Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Capacity 80 018
AC Milan
AC Milan
0 : 3
Finished
Udinese
Udinese
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 AC Milan — 58%

1 · AC Milan ✓ Прогноз58.2%
market67%
X · draw24.4%
market21%
2 · Udinese17.5%
market12%

Model estimate: win AC Milan 58.2%, draw 24.4%, win Udinese 17.5%. Model favourite — AC Milan.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction AC Milan - Udinese 11 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AC Milan.

Strongest: AC Milan - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.43 / X 4.52 / 2 7.68
  • 1X2 market: AC Milan 66.5% / X 21.1% / Udinese 12.5%
  • Glicko: AC Milan 58.2% / X 24.4% / Udinese 17.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 39.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 ✓ Прогноз 66.6%
X 21.1%
2 12.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.3%
Over 2.5 51.8%
Under 2.5 48.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 62.7%
Total ТМ 2.5
Score 1:0

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: 100 RUB

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Match center
Start 11.04.2026 16:00 UTC
Stadium Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (Milan)
Capacity 80,018

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model AC Milan 58%
💹 Market AC Milan 6645%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

AC Milan - Udinese

AC Milan: Победа 1.45 AC Milan: Ничья 4.33 Udinese Победа: 7.50 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 1.80 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 2.00 Индивидуальный тотал голов AC Milan больше 1.5: 1.57 Индивидуальный тотал голов AC Milan меньше 1.5: 2.25 Индивидуальный тотал голов Udinese боль…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:3
Events 14
Statistics 24
Lineups 47
min Event Player Team
16' 16' Yellow Card | Rafael Leão S. Bamba AC Milan
27' 27' Own Goal | Davide Bartesaghi Udinese
37' 37' Normal Goal | Jürgen Ekkelenkamp A. Mosquera Udinese
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Zachary Athekame | assist/sub out: Niclas Füllkrug AC Milan
46' 46' Yellow Card | Thomas Kristensen Udinese
60' 60' Substitution 2 | Samuele Ricci | assist/sub out: Youssouf Fofana AC Milan
66' 66' Substitution 1 | Nicolò Zaniolo | assist/sub out: Jakub Piotrowski D. Spence Udinese
71' 71' Normal Goal | Arthur Atta Udinese
Metric AC Milan Udinese SStats
Ожидаемые голы (xG) 1.78 1.19 final
Заблокированные удары 9 2 final
Удары мимо 8 4 final
Удары в створ 3 6 final
Удары всего 20 12 final
Фолы совершено 9 14 final
Желтые карточки 1 1 final
Офсайды 0 0 final
AC Milan #4 Samuele Ricci, #5 K. De Winter, #10 R. Leao, #11 Christian Pulišić, #12 A. Rabiot, #14 L. Modric, #16 M. Maignan, #24 Zachary Athekame, #31 S. Pavlovic, #33 D. Bartesaghi, #56 A. Saelemaekers
Udinese #8 Jesper Karlström, #9 Keinan Davis, #10 N. Zaniolo, #11 H. Kamara, #14 Arthur Atta, #19 Kingsley Ehizibue, #27 Christian Kabasele, #28 Oumar Solet, #31 Thomas Kristensen, #32 J. Ekkelenkamp, #40 Maduka Okoye
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Jashari AC Milan football.player.assists 0
A. Jashari AC Milan Единоборства выиграно 2
A. Jashari AC Milan Сейвы 0
A. Jashari AC Milan football.player.minutes_played 18
A. Jashari AC Milan Ключевые пасы 15
A. Jashari AC Milan Рейтинг (старый) 6.3
A. Jashari AC Milan Отборы всего 11
A. Jashari AC Milan Жёлтые карточки 1
A. Rabiot AC Milan football.player.assists 0
A. Rabiot AC Milan Дриблинг попытки 10
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
AC Milan 66.4% 58.2% market and model agree
Draw 21.6% 24.4% draw risk
Udinese 12.0% 17.5%
xG - 1.65 : 0.78
Total 2.5 Over 39.1% - Under 61.0%
Model check - - Difference 0.08
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.08

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 58.2% / 24.4% / 17.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,661 / 1,511 AC Milan / Udinese
RD 76 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.68 market consensus · no value · model 17.5%
X 4.52 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.43 market consensus · no value · model 58.2%
Double chance
X2 2.78 market consensus · no value · model 41.8%
12 1.19 market consensus · no value · model 75.6%
1X 1.09 market consensus · no value · model 82.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.82 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.15 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 6.55 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.41 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.85 market consensus · no value · model 39.1%
Under 2.5 1.99 market consensus · value +21.3% · model 61.0%
Both teams to score
No 1.73 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.03 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
П1 1.41 70.9% 1.42 70.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.45 69.0% 1.45 69.0% 1.40 71.4%
Х 4.30 23.3% 4.85 20.6% 4.80 20.8% 4.33 23.1% 4.50 22.2% 4.60 21.7%
П2 8.00 12.5% 7.70 13.0% 7.14 14.0% 7.50 13.3% 9.00 11.1% 8.50 11.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.77 56.5% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.68 59.5% 1.72 58.1%
yes 2.00 50.0% 2.16 46.3% 2.06 48.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.06 48.5% 2.04 49.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 2.80 35.7% 2.79 35.8% 2.62 38.2% 2.90 34.5% 2.88 34.7% 2.75 36.4%
home_away 1.17 85.5% 1.22 82.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.21 82.6% 1.17 85.5% 1.13 88.5%
home_draw 1.07 93.5% 1.12 89.3% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9% 1.06 94.3% 1.10 90.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
ТБ 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.00 100.0%
ТБ 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
ТБ 1.0 — — 1.02 98.0%
ТБ 1.25 — — 1.13 88.5%
ТБ 1.5 1.25 80.0% — —
ТБ 2.5 1.80 55.6% 1.88 53.2% —
ТБ 2.75 — 2.06 48.5% —
ТБ 3.5 3.00 33.3% — —
ТБ 4.5 5.50 18.2% — —
ТМ 0.5 9.50 10.5% — —
ТМ 1.5 3.70 27.0% — —
ТМ 2.5 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5% —
ТМ 2.75 — 1.84 54.4% —
ТМ 3.5 1.38 72.5% — —
ТМ 4.5 1.14 87.7% — —
Match center
AC Milan
Founded 1899
Udinese
Founded 1896
Match center
AC Milan

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Udinese
JZ J. Zemura Muscle Injury
AB A. Buksa Calf Injury
AC Milan Founded: 1899
Udinese Founded: 1896
Match center
AC Milan
L W L W W
06.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 0:1 NapoliNapoli
21.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 3:2 TorinoTorino
15.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 0:1 LazioLazio
08.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 1:0 InterInter
01.03 11:30 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 2:0 CremoneseCremonese
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
9 Points
Udinese
D W L D W
06.04 10:30 UTC Serie A
Udinese 0:0 ComoComo
20.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Udinese 2:0 GenoaGenoa
14.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Udinese 0:1 JuventusJuventus
07.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Udinese 2:2 AtalantaAtalanta
02.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Udinese 3:0 FiorentinaFiorentina
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.6 Conceded
8 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAC Milan - Udinese

AC Milan
3 matches total
Udinese
AC Milan: 3 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Udinese: 0 (0%)
Biggest win AC Milan 4:0 (11.04 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (4:0, 11.04 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

8 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 8

Match history

20.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan
3:0
Udinese
11.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan
4:0
Udinese
19.10 16:00 UTC Serie A
AC Milan
1:0
Udinese
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.