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Serie A Italy

18.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

18.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Finished

Serie A

AS Roma - Atalanta

Italy Football

Stadium Stadio Olimpiko

AS Roma

1 : 1

Finished

Atalanta

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 AS Roma — 38%

1 · AS Roma37.7%

X · draw27.9%

2 · Atalanta34.5%

Model estimate: win AS Roma 37.7%, draw 27.9%, win Atalanta 34.5%. Model favourite — AS Roma.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction AS Roma - Atalanta April 18, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AS Roma.

Strongest: AS Roma - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.45 / X 3.31 / 2 2.90
1X2 market: AS Roma 38.6% / X 28.7% / Atalanta 32.7%
Glicko: AS Roma 37.7% / X 27.9% / Atalanta 34.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 45.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%

1 38.7%

X 28.6%

2 32.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%

Over 2.5 50.5%

Under 2.5 49.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 3/4

Confidence 28.2%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 18.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Stadium Stadio Olimpiko (Rim)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model AS Roma 38%

💹 Market AS Roma 3864%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

AS Roma - Atalanta

AS Roma: Win 2.40 AS Roma: Draw 3.40 Atalanta Win: 2.90 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov AS Roma bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov AS Roma menshe 1.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Atalanta bolshe…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:1

Events 15

Statistics 24

Lineups 42

min Event Player Team

12' 12' Normal Goal | N. Krstovic | assist/sub out: M. De Roon Atalanta

45' 45' Normal Goal | M. Hermoso | assist/sub out: D. Rensch D. Cissé AS Roma

46' 46' Substitution 1 | S. Kolasinac | assist/sub out: H. Ahanor Ángel Ortiz Atalanta

46' 46' Substitution 2 | G. Scalvini | assist/sub out: O. Kossounou Atalanta

46' 46' Substitution 3 | C. De Ketelaere | assist/sub out: N. Zalewski Atalanta

54' 54' Substitution 4 | R. Bellanova | assist/sub out: L. Bernasconi Atalanta

60' 60' Substitution 4 | S. El Shaarawy | assist/sub out: L. Venturino B. Johnson AS Roma

60' 60' Substitution 2 | N. El Aynaoui | assist/sub out: N. Pisilli AS Roma

Metric AS Roma Atalanta SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.07 0.68 final

Zablokirovannye udary 6 3 final

Shots off target 4 3 final

Shots on target 9 2 final

Udary vsego 19 8 final

Fouls soversheno 4 14 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final

Offsides 1 3 final

AS Roma #2 Devyne Rensch, #4 B. Cristante, #5 E. Ndicka, #8 N. El Aynaoui, #14 Donyell Malen, #18 Matías Soulé, #19 Zeki Çelik, #22 Mario Hermoso, #23 G. Mancini, #92 Stephan El Shaarawy, #99 Mile Svilar

Atalanta #15 Marten de Roon, #16 R. Bellanova, #17 C. De Ketelaere, #18 G. Raspadori, #19 B. Djimsiti, #23 S. Kolasinac, #29 M. Carnesecchi, #42 G. Scalvini, #77 D. Zappacosta, #90 N. Krstović

Player Team Metric SStats

AngeliG±o AS Roma Seyvy 0

B. Cristante AS Roma football.player.assists 0

B. Cristante AS Roma Dribling popytki 6

B. Cristante AS Roma Edinoborstva vsego 1

B. Cristante AS Roma Edinoborstva vyigrano 11

B. Cristante AS Roma Fouls soversheno 1

B. Cristante AS Roma Seyvy 0

B. Cristante AS Roma football.player.minutes_played 90

B. Cristante AS Roma Klyuchevye pasy 60

B. Cristante AS Roma Reyting (staryy) 7

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

AS Roma 40.1% 37.7% market and model agree

Draw 29.3% 27.9% draw risk

Atalanta 30.6% 34.5%

xG - 1.22 : 1.15

Total 2.5 Over 45.5% - Under 54.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 37.7% / 27.9% / 34.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,612 / 1,607 AS Roma / Atalanta

RD 74 / 73 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.90 market consensus · no value · model 34.5%

X 3.31 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.45 market consensus · no value · model 37.7%

Double chance

X2 1.53 market consensus · no value · model 62.3%

12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 72.1%

1X 1.41 market consensus · no value · model 65.5%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.55 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.25 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.80 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.93 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.89 market consensus · no value · model 45.5%

Under 2.5 1.93 market consensus · weak value +5.1% · model 54.5%

Both teams to score

No 2.13 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.67 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.50 40.0%	2.28 43.9%	2.56 39.1%	2.45 40.8%	2.40 41.7%	2.47 40.5%
X	3.20 31.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.42 29.2%	3.10 32.3%	3.40 29.4%	3.30 30.3%
	2.80 35.7%	3.35 29.9%	3.01 33.2%	2.75 36.4%	2.90 34.5%	2.92 34.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.00 50.0%	2.13 47.0%	2.13 47.0%	2.15 46.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.15 46.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.11 47.4%
yes	1.75 57.1%	1.72 58.1%	1.65 60.6%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.65 60.6%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.50 66.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.53 65.4%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%	1.32 75.8%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.42 70.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.06 94.3%	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.15 87.0%
Over 1.5	1.33 75.2%	—	1.26 79.4%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.32 75.8%
Over 2.5	2.00 50.0%	2.00 50.0%	—
Over 3.5	3.45 29.0%	—	—
Over 4.5	6.50 15.4%	—	—
Under 0.5	8.50 11.8%	—	—
Under 1.5	3.25 30.8%	—	—
Under 2.5	1.80 55.6%	1.90 52.6%	—
Under 3.5	1.30 76.9%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.10 90.9%	—	—

Match center

AS Roma

Founded 1927

Atalanta

Founded 1907

Match center

AS Roma

EB Edoardo Bove heart problems

Atalanta

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

AS Roma Founded: 1927

Atalanta Founded: 1907

Match center

AS Roma

W L W L L

10.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 3:0 Pisa

05.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 2:5 Inter

22.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 1:0 Lecce

15.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 1:2 Como

08.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 1:2 Genoa

2 Wins

0 Draws

3 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.8 Conceded

6 Points

Atalanta

L W W D D

11.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Atalanta 0:1 Juventus

06.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Atalanta 3:0 Lecce

22.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Atalanta 1:0 Hellas Verona

14.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Atalanta 1:1 Inter

07.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

Atalanta 2:2 Udinese

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.4 Scored

0.8 Conceded

8 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAS Roma - Atalanta

AS Roma

2 matches total

Atalanta

AS Roma: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Atalanta: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Atalanta 0:1 (03.01 19:45 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 12.05 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 3

3 Goals conceded 1

Match history

03.01 19:45 UTC

Serie A

AS Roma

0:1

Atalanta

12.05 18:45 UTC

Serie A

AS Roma

1:2

Atalanta

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.