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Serie A Italy

35 round 04.05.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction Prediction

04.05.2026 18:45 UTC 35 round

Finished

Serie A

AS Roma - Fiorentina

Italy Football

Stadium Stadio Olimpiko

Referee L. Zufferli

AS Roma

4 : 0

Finished

Fiorentina

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 AS Roma — 56%

1 · AS Roma ✓ Pick56.2%

X · draw24.9%

2 · Fiorentina18.9%

Model estimate: win AS Roma 56.2%, draw 24.9%, win Fiorentina 18.9%. Model favourite — AS Roma.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction AS Roma - Fiorentina May 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AS Roma.

Strongest: AS Roma - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.53 / X 4.16 / 2 6.23
1X2 market: AS Roma 61.9% / X 22.8% / Fiorentina 15.3%
Glicko: AS Roma 56.2% / X 24.9% / Fiorentina 18.9%
Total 2.5: over probability 35.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%

1 ✓ Pick 62.0%

X 22.8%

2 15.2%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%

Over 2.5 52.1%

Under 2.5 47.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 5/5

Confidence 59.5%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Olimpiko (Rim, Italy), 61 307 zriteley (89% pri vmestimosti 68 530)

Referee Luka Tsufferli

Start 04.05.2026 18:45 UTC

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model AS Roma 56%

💹 Market AS Roma 6191%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

AS Roma - Fiorentina

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Roma - Fiorentina, 4 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Italy po futbolu (Seriya A) 2025-2026, 35 round. Roma - Fiorentina, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 4:0

Events 18

Statistics 24

Lineups 44

min Event Player Team

13' 13' Normal Goal | G. Mancini G. Mancini AS Roma

17' 17' Normal Goal | Wesley Franca Wesley AS Roma

25' 25' Yellow Card | M. Pongracic M. Pongracic Fiorentina

34' 34' Normal Goal | M. Hermoso | assist/sub out: M. Kone Mario Hermoso AS Roma

46' 46' Substitution 1 | M. Pongracic | assist/sub out: P. Comuzzo M. Pongracic Fiorentina

46' 46' Substitution 2 | J. Harrison | assist/sub out: R. Braschi J. Harrison Fiorentina

46' 46' Substitution 3 | A. Gudmundsson | assist/sub out: F. Parisi A. GuG°mundsson Fiorentina

48' 48' Yellow Card | M. Hermoso Mario Hermoso AS Roma

Metric AS Roma Fiorentina SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.24 0.14 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 0 final

Shots off target 3 3 final

Shots on target 7 1 final

Udary vsego 14 4 final

Fouls soversheno 12 10 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 2 final

Offsides 1 0 final

AS Roma #4 B. Cristante, #14 Donyell Malen, #22 Mario Hermoso, #43 Wesley, #99 Mile Svilar, #5 E. Ndicka, #17 M. Kone, #18 Matías Soulé, #23 G. Mancini, #61 N. Pisilli, #19 Zeki Çelik

Fiorentina #19 M. Solomon, #21 R. Gosens, #27 C. Ndour, #43 David de Gea, #6 L. Ranieri, #10 A. GuG°mundsson, #44 N. Fagioli, #4 M. Brescianini, #5 M. Pongracic, #17 J. Harrison, #2 DodGґ

Player Team Metric SStats

AngeliG±o AS Roma Seyvy 0

B. Cristante AS Roma football.player.assists 0

B. Cristante AS Roma Dribling popytki 3

B. Cristante AS Roma Dribling uspeshno 1

B. Cristante AS Roma Edinoborstva vyigrano 7

B. Cristante AS Roma Seyvy 0

B. Cristante AS Roma football.player.minutes_played 90

B. Cristante AS Roma Klyuchevye pasy 59

B. Cristante AS Roma Reyting (staryy) 6.7

B. Cristante AS Roma Bloki 2

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

AS Roma 60.9% 56.2% market and model agree

Draw 22.6% 24.9% draw risk

Fiorentina 16.5% 18.9%

xG - 1.61 : 0.81

Total 2.5 Over 35.0% - Under 65.0%

Model check - - Difference 0.05

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 56.2% / 24.9% / 18.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,621 / 1,501 AS Roma / Fiorentina

RD 72 / 71 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 6.23 market consensus · no value · model 18.9%

X 4.16 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.53 market consensus · no value · model 56.2%

Double chance

X2 2.48 market consensus · no value · model 43.8%

12 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 75.1%

1X 1.12 market consensus · no value · model 81.1%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.51 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.93 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 5.43 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.52 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.83 market consensus · no value · model 35.0%

Under 2.5 1.99 market consensus · value +29.3% · model 65.0%

Both teams to score

No 1.84 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.88 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.54 64.9%	1.54 64.9%	1.50 66.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.57 63.7%	1.50 66.7%
X	4.20 23.8%	4.32 23.2%	3.90 25.6%	4.33 23.1%	4.30 23.3%	4.00 25.0%
	5.60 17.9%	7.31 13.7%	6.00 16.7%	5.75 17.4%	6.30 15.9%	6.00 16.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.80 55.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.85 54.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.83 54.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.89 52.9%
yes	1.93 51.8%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.87 53.5%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%	1.86 53.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.40 41.7%	2.64 37.9%	2.45 40.8%	2.38 42.0%	2.50 40.0%	2.50 40.0%
home_away	1.18 84.8%	1.26 79.4%	1.25 80.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.22 82.0%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	1.12 89.3%	1.12 89.3%	1.11 90.1%	1.14 87.7%	1.15 87.0%	1.08 92.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.13 88.5%
Over 1.5	1.28 78.1%	1.24 80.7%
Over 1.75	—	1.30 76.9%
Over 2.0	—	1.37 73.0%
Over 2.25	—	1.66 60.2%
Over 2.5	1.85 54.1%	—
Over 3.5	3.10 32.3%	—
Over 4.5	6.00 16.7%	—
Under 0.5	9.50 10.5%	—
Under 1.5	3.65 27.4%	—
Under 2.5	1.93 51.8%	—
Under 3.5	1.35 74.1%	—
Under 4.5	1.12 89.3%	—

Match center

AS Roma

Founded 1927

Fiorentina

Founded 1926

Match center

AS Roma

LP L. Pellegrini Thigh Injury

AD A. Dovbyk Groin Injury

Fiorentina

MK M. Kean Calf Injury

FP F. Parisi Inactive

Evan Fergyuson Artem Dovbik Lorentso Pellegrini Travmirovannye Abdelkhamid Sabiri Nikkolo Fortini Roberto Pikkoli Diskvalifitsirovannye Neyl El-Aynaui CHAMP

AS Roma Founded: 1927

Fiorentina Founded: 1926

Match center

AS Roma

W D W L W

25.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 2:0 Bologna

18.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 1:1 Atalanta

10.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 3:0 Pisa

05.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 2:5 Inter

22.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

AS Roma 1:0 Lecce

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.8 Scored

1.2 Conceded

10 Points

Fiorentina

D D W W D

26.04 10:30 UTC Serie A

Fiorentina 0:0 Sassuolo

20.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Fiorentina 1:1 Lecce

13.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Fiorentina 1:0 Lazio

04.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Fiorentina 1:0 Hellas Verona

22.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Fiorentina 1:1 Inter

2 Wins

3 Draws

0 Losses

0.8 Scored

0.4 Conceded

9 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAS Roma - Fiorentina

AS Roma

3 matches total

Fiorentina

AS Roma: 2 (66.7%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Fiorentina: 1 (33.3%)

Biggest win Fiorentina 1:5 (27.10 19:45 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 6 goals (1:5, 27.10 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 6

6 Goals conceded 4

Match history

05.10 13:00 UTC

Serie A

AS Roma

2:1

Fiorentina

04.05 16:00 UTC

Serie A

AS Roma

1:0

Fiorentina

27.10 19:45 UTC

Serie A

AS Roma

1:5

Fiorentina

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 AS Roma

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Fiorentina

34 Games 34

19 Wins 8

4 Draws 13

11 Losses 13

48 Scored 38

29 Conceded 45

61 Points 37

114.9 Attacks 91.12

54.68 Dangerous attacks 41.21

0 Big chances 0

12.65 Shots on goal 12.62

4.38 Shots on target 3.59

niya 0.06 Goly Dzhanluka Manchini Nikkolo Pizilli 1:0 13' Uesli Fransa Mario Ermoso 2:0 17' Mario Ermoso Manu Kone 3:0 34' Nikkolo Pizilli Doniell Malen 4:0 58' Nakazaniya Marin Pongrachich 25' Mario Ermoso 48' Fabyano Parizi 66' Stefan El-Shaaravi 90+2'

Roma Fiorentina 34 Games 34 19 Wins 8 4 Draws 13 11 Losses 13 48 Scored 38 29 Conceded 45 61 Points 37 114.9 Attacks 91.12 54.68 Dangerous attacks 41.21 0 Big chances 0 12.65 Shots on goal 12.62 4.38 Udary v stvor 3.59 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.06 Uglovye 4.56 1.68 Offsaydy 1.65 14 Foly 12.59 55.88 % vladeniya myachom 51.71 1.85 Warnings 2.26 0.06 Sendoffs 0.06 Goly Dzhanluka Manchini Nikkolo Pizilli 1:0 13' Uesli Fransa Mario Ermoso 2:0 17' Mario Ermoso Manu Kone 3:0 34' Nikkolo Pizilli Doniell Malen 4:0 58' Nakazaniya Marin Pongrachich 25' Mario Ermoso 48' Fabyano Parizi 66' Stefan El-Shaaravi 90+2'