Serie A
Serie A Italy
29.12.2025 19:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

AS Roma - Genoa

Italy Futbol
AS Roma
AS Roma
3 : 1
Finished
Genoa
Genoa

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction AS Roma - Genoa 29 декабря 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AS Roma.

Line favourite market consensus: AS Roma. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.60 / X 3.67 / 2 6.41
  • 1X2 market: AS Roma 59.3% / X 25.9% / Genoa 14.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 58.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 59.3%
X 25.9%
2 14.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5 41.4%
Under 2.5 58.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 29.12.2025 19:45 UTC
Match center

AS Roma - Genoa

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.41 market consensus · line only
X 3.68 market consensus · line only
1 1.60 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.33 market consensus · line only
12 1.28 market consensus · line only
1X 1.13 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.38 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.78 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.73 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.59 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.31 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.63 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.60 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.26 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 1.60 62.5%
Х 3.82 26.2%
П2 6.51 15.4%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
П1 1.58 63.3% 1.59 62.9% 1.66 60.2% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7%
Х 3.70 27.0% 3.75 26.7% 3.80 26.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.70 27.0% 3.80 26.3%
П2 6.50 15.4% 6.70 14.9% 6.71 14.9% 5.75 17.4% 6.50 15.4% 6.70 14.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.60 62.5% 1.58 63.3% 1.62 61.7%
yes 2.20 45.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.23 44.8% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.27 44.1% 2.25 44.4% 2.23 44.8% 2.38 42.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 2.25 44.4% 2.37 42.2% 2.25 44.4% 2.30 43.5% 2.37 42.2% 2.38 42.0%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.31 76.3% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.26 79.4% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.11 90.1% 1.14 87.7% 1.13 88.5% 1.12 89.3% 1.14 87.7% 1.13 88.5%
Match center
AS Roma
L W L L W
20.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 1:2 JuventusJuventus
15.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 1:0 ComoComo
07.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 0:1 CagliariCagliari
30.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 0:1 NapoliNapoli
23.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 3:1 CremoneseCremonese
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
6 Points
Genoa
L L W W D
21.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:1 AtalantaAtalanta
14.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:2 InterInter
08.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 2:1 UdineseUdinese
29.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 2:1 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
22.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 3:3 CagliariCagliari
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAS Roma - Genoa

AS Roma
1 matches total
Genoa
AS Roma: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Genoa: 0 (0%)
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 15.09 10:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (15.09 10:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

15.09 10:30 UTC Serie A
AS Roma
1:1
Genoa