Post-match / SStats
Score
3:0
Events
15
Statistics
24
Lineups
45
min
Event
Player
Team
3'
3' Normal Goal | D. Malen
AS Roma
21'
21' Yellow Card | I. Touré
Pisa
43'
43' Normal Goal | D. Malen | assist/sub out: D. Rensch
AS Roma
46'
46' Substitution 2 | L. Pellegrini | assist/sub out: S. El Shaarawy
G. Vicario
AS Roma
50'
50' Yellow Card | Z. Çelik
K. Wätjen
AS Roma
52'
52' Normal Goal | D. Malen | assist/sub out: M. Soulé
AS Roma
54'
54' Substitution 1 | M. Højholt | assist/sub out: E. Akinsanmiro
Vadim Konovchuk
Pisa
54'
54' Substitution 2 | I. Touré | assist/sub out: G. Piccinini
Pisa
Metric
AS Roma
Pisa
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.53
1.26
final
Zablokirovannye udary
2
1
final
Shots off target
3
3
final
Shots on target
3
5
final
Udary vsego
8
9
final
Fouls soversheno
11
12
final
Zheltye kartochki
1
1
final
Offsides
0
3
final
AS Roma
#2 Devyne Rensch, #4 B. Cristante, #5 E. Ndicka, #14 Donyell Malen, #18 Matías Soulé, #19 Zeki Çelik, #22 Mario Hermoso, #61 N. Pisilli, #87 Daniele Ghilardi, #99 Mile Svilar
Pisa
#1 Adrian Šemper, #3 Samuele Angori, #4 A. Caracciolo, #5 Simone Canestrelli, #7 Mehdi Léris, #8 Malthe Højholt, #10 M. Tramoni, #15 Idrissa Touré, #20 M. Aebischer, #32 Stefano Moreo, #33 Arturo Calabresi
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
AngeliG±o
AS Roma
football.player.assists
0
AngeliG±o
AS Roma
Dribling popytki
1
AngeliG±o
AS Roma
Edinoborstva vyigrano
2
AngeliG±o
AS Roma
Seyvy
0
AngeliG±o
AS Roma
football.player.minutes_played
12
AngeliG±o
AS Roma
Klyuchevye pasy
10
AngeliG±o
AS Roma
Reyting (staryy)
6.6
AngeliG±o
AS Roma
Shots on target
1
AngeliG±o
AS Roma
Bloki
1
AngeliG±o
AS Roma
Otbory vsego
10
Market and Glicko
Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
AS Roma
71.4%
68.3%
market and model agree
Draw
19.0%
19.8%
draw risk
Pisa
9.5%
12.0%
xG
-
2.02 : 0.70
Total 2.5
Over 31.4%
-
Under 68.7%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.03
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
68.3% / 19.8% / 12.0%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,607 / 1,390
AS Roma / Pisa
RD
74 / 77
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value:
no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
9.34
market consensus · no value · model 12.0%
X
4.99
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.35
market consensus · no value · model 68.3%
Double chance
X2
3.22
market consensus · no value · model 31.7%
12
1.17
market consensus · no value · model 80.2%
1X
1.06
market consensus · no value · model 88.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5
3.29
market consensus · line only
2 -1
2.51
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
7.00
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.32
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.83
market consensus · no value · model 31.4%
Under 2.5
2.00
market consensus · value +37.3% · model 68.7%
Both teams to score
No
1.62
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.20
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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