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Serie A
Serie A Italy
28.10.2025 19:45 UTC Match prediction
28.10.2025 19:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Atalanta - AC Milan

Italy Football
Atalanta
Atalanta
1 : 1
Finished
AC Milan
AC Milan

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atalanta - AC Milan October 28, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AC Milan.

Line favourite market consensus: AC Milan. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.70 / X 3.23 / 2 2.68
  • 1X2 market: Atalanta 35.1% / X 29.4% / AC Milan 35.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 35.2%
X 29.4%
2 35.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.3%
Over 2.5 48.2%
Under 2.5 51.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 28.10.2025 19:45 UTC
Match center

Atalanta - AC Milan

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.68 market consensus · line only
X 3.24 market consensus · line only
1 2.71 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.47 market consensus · line only
12 1.35 market consensus · line only
1X 1.47 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.49 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.18 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.60 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.55 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.99 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.85 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.06 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.77 36.1%
X 3.33 30.0%
2.73 36.6%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.62 38.2% 2.78 36.0% 2.79 35.8% 2.63 38.0% 2.62 38.2% 2.72 36.8%
X 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.32 30.1% 3.10 32.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.25 30.8%
2.68 37.3% 2.66 37.6% 2.80 35.7% 2.63 38.0% 2.75 36.4% 2.67 37.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.00 50.0% 2.13 47.0% 2.04 49.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.03 49.3% 2.21 45.3%
yes 1.73 57.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.71 58.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.48 67.6% 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.49 67.1%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.37 73.0%
home_draw 1.42 70.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7%
Match center
Atalanta
D D D D W
25.10 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 CremoneseCremonese
19.10 16:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 0:0 LazioLazio
04.10 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 ComoComo
27.09 16:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 JuventusJuventus
21.09 13:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 3:0 TorinoTorino
1 Wins
4 Draws
0 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.6 Conceded
7 Points
AC Milan
D W D W W
24.10 18:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 2:2 PisaPisa
19.10 18:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 2:1 FiorentinaFiorentina
05.10 18:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 0:0 JuventusJuventus
28.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 2:1 NapoliNapoli
20.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 3:0 UdineseUdinese
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.8 Scored
0.8 Conceded
11 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtalanta - AC Milan

Atalanta
1 matches total
AC Milan
Atalanta: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
AC Milan: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Atalanta 1:0 (20.04 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (1:0, 20.04 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 1

Match history

20.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta
1:0
AC Milan