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Serie A
Serie A Italy
12.05.2025 18:45 UTC Match prediction
12.05.2025 18:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Atalanta - AS Roma

Italy Football
Atalanta
Atalanta
2 : 1
Finished
AS Roma
AS Roma

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atalanta - AS Roma May 12, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atalanta.

Line favourite market consensus: Atalanta. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.23 / X 3.48 / 2 3.41
  • 1X2 market: Atalanta 43.6% / X 27.9% / AS Roma 28.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 2.9%
1 43.6%
X 27.9%
2 28.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.2%
Over 2.5 53.8%
Under 2.5 46.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 12.05.2025 18:45 UTC
Match center

Atalanta - AS Roma

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.41 market consensus · line only
X 3.48 market consensus · line only
1 2.23 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.72 market consensus · line only
12 1.34 market consensus · line only
1X 1.36 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.10 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.23 44.8%
X 3.48 28.7%
3.41 29.3%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.72 58.1%
home_away 1.34 74.6%
home_draw 1.36 73.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 2.5 1.80 55.6%
Under 2.5 2.10 47.6%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.60 62.5%
2.45 40.8%
Match center
Atalanta
W D W W L
04.05 13:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 4:0 Monza
27.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 LecceLecce
20.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:0 AC MilanAC Milan
13.04 10:30 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:0 BolognaBologna
06.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 0:1 LazioLazio
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.4 Conceded
10 Points
AS Roma
W W W D D
04.05 16:00 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 1:0 FiorentinaFiorentina
27.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 1:0 InterInter
19.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 1:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
13.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 1:1 LazioLazio
06.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 1:1 JuventusJuventus
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.4 Conceded
11 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtalanta - AS Roma

Atalanta
0 matches total
AS Roma
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history