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Serie A
Serie A Italy
03.01.2026 19:45 UTC Match prediction
03.01.2026 19:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Atalanta - AS Roma

Italy Football
Atalanta
Atalanta
1 : 0
Finished
AS Roma
AS Roma

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atalanta - AS Roma January 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atalanta.

Line favourite market consensus: Atalanta. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.34 / X 3.04 / 2 3.41
  • 1X2 market: Atalanta 40.7% / X 31.3% / AS Roma 28.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 57.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 40.7%
X 31.3%
2 27.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.1%
Over 2.5 42.1%
Under 2.5 57.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 03.01.2026 19:45 UTC
Match center

Atalanta - AS Roma

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.42 market consensus · line only
X 3.05 market consensus · line only
1 2.34 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.62 market consensus · line only
12 1.38 market consensus · line only
1X 1.33 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.63 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.26 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.32 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.48 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.28 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.66 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.85 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.91 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.37 42.2%
X 3.11 32.2%
3.51 28.5%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.32 43.1% 2.35 42.6% 2.43 41.2% 2.30 43.5% 2.35 42.6% 2.30 43.5%
X 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.13 32.0% 3.00 33.3% 3.05 32.8% 2.90 34.5%
3.25 30.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.51 28.5% 3.50 28.6% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Superbet
no 1.83 54.6% 1.86 53.8% 1.83 54.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.87 53.5% 1.87 53.5% 1.81 55.3% 1.92 52.1% 1.85 54.1%
yes 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.89 52.9% 1.91 52.4% 1.87 53.5% 1.87 53.5% 1.89 52.9% 1.94 51.6% 1.92 52.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 1.60 62.5% 1.63 61.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.42 70.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.41 70.9% 1.41 70.9%
home_draw 1.33 75.2% 1.35 74.1% 1.28 78.1% 1.34 74.6% 1.34 74.6% 1.34 74.6%
Match center
Atalanta
L W W L W
28.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 0:1 InterInter
21.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:0 GenoaGenoa
13.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:1 CagliariCagliari
06.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:3 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
30.11 17:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:0 FiorentinaFiorentina
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
AS Roma
W L W L L
29.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 3:1 GenoaGenoa
20.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 1:2 JuventusJuventus
15.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 1:0 ComoComo
07.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 0:1 CagliariCagliari
30.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 0:1 NapoliNapoli
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtalanta - AS Roma

Atalanta
1 matches total
AS Roma
Atalanta: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
AS Roma: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Atalanta 2:1 (12.05 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 12.05 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 2

Match history

12.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta
2:1
AS Roma