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Serie A
Serie A Italy
13.12.2025 19:45 UTC Match prediction
13.12.2025 19:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Atalanta - Cagliari

Italy Football
Atalanta
Atalanta
2 : 1
Finished
Cagliari
Cagliari

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atalanta - Cagliari December 13, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atalanta.

Line favourite market consensus: Atalanta. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.35 / X 5.11 / 2 8.99
  • 1X2 market: Atalanta 70.7% / X 18.7% / Cagliari 10.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 57.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 70.7%
X 18.7%
2 10.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 57.1%
Under 2.5 42.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 13.12.2025 19:45 UTC
Match center

Atalanta - Cagliari

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 9.04 market consensus · line only
X 5.13 market consensus · line only
1 1.35 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.24 market consensus · line only
12 1.18 market consensus · line only
1X 1.08 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.26 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.54 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 7.03 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.34 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.67 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.22 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.77 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.98 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.34 74.6%
X 5.44 18.4%
9.79 10.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.34 74.6% 1.35 74.1% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.40 71.4%
X 4.80 20.8% 5.20 19.2% 5.33 18.8% 4.80 20.8% 5.25 19.1% 5.20 19.2%
9.40 10.6% 9.00 11.1% 9.55 10.5% 8.00 12.5% 8.50 11.8% 8.75 11.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.80 55.6% 1.76 56.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.80 55.6% 1.74 57.5% 1.81 55.3%
yes 1.95 51.3% 2.08 48.1% 1.98 50.5% 1.85 54.1% 2.00 50.0% 1.98 50.5% 1.95 51.3% 1.98 50.5% 2.08 48.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.15 31.8% 3.32 30.1%
home_away 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.18 84.8%
home_draw 1.05 95.2% 1.07 93.5% 1.08 92.6% 1.08 92.6% 1.10 90.9% 1.08 92.6%
Match center
Atalanta
L W L L L
06.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:3 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
30.11 17:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:0 FiorentinaFiorentina
22.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:3 NapoliNapoli
09.11 11:30 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 0:3 SassuoloSassuolo
01.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 0:1 UdineseUdinese
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.8 Scored
2.0 Conceded
3 Points
Cagliari
W L D D L
07.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:0 AS RomaAS Roma
29.11 17:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:2 JuventusJuventus
22.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 3:3 GenoaGenoa
08.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 0:0 ComoComo
03.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 0:2 LazioLazio
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtalanta - Cagliari

Atalanta
0 matches total
Cagliari
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history