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Serie A Italy

11.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

11.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Finished

Serie A

Atalanta - Juventus

Italy Football

Stadium Gewiss Stadium

Capacity 21 300

Atalanta

0 : 1

Finished

Juventus

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Juventus — 42%

1 · Atalanta30.9%

X · draw27.4%

2 · Juventus41.7%

Model estimate: win Atalanta 30.9%, draw 27.4%, win Juventus 41.7%. Model favourite — Juventus.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atalanta - Juventus April 11, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Juventus.

Strongest: Juventus - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.18 / X 3.42 / 2 2.25
1X2 market: Atalanta 29.9% / X 27.8% / Juventus 42.3%
Glicko: Atalanta 30.9% / X 27.4% / Juventus 41.7%
Total 2.5: over probability 28.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%

1 29.9%

X 27.8%

2 42.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%

Over 2.5 54.9%

Under 2.5 45.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 42.4%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 11.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Stadium Gewiss Stadium (Bergamo)

Capacity 21,300

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Juventus 42%

💹 Market Juventus 4231%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Atalanta - Juventus

Atalanta: Win 3.25 Atalanta: Draw 3.40 Juventus Win: 2.20 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.73 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Atalanta bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Atalanta menshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Juventus bo…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:1

Events 0

Statistics 24

Lineups 40

Metric Atalanta Juventus SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.68 0.61 final

Zablokirovannye udary 8 2 final

Shots off target 11 3 final

Shots on target 3 2 final

Udary vsego 22 7 final

Fouls soversheno 7 11 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final

Offsides 3 1 final

Atalanta #2 E. Holm, #3 Bremer, #5 M. Locatelli, #6 L. Kelly, #7 F. Conceicao, #10 Kenan Yıldız, #13 J. Boga, #15 P. Kalulu, #16 M. Di Gregorio, #19 K. Thuram, #27 A. Cambiaso

Juventus #15 Marten de Roon, #17 C. De Ketelaere, #19 B. Djimsiti, #23 S. Kolasinac, #29 M. Carnesecchi, #42 G. Scalvini, #47 L. Bernasconi, #59 N. Zalewski, #77 D. Zappacosta, #90 N. Krstović

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Cambiaso Atalanta football.player.assists 0

A. Cambiaso Atalanta Dribling popytki 5

A. Cambiaso Atalanta Dribling uspeshno 2

A. Cambiaso Atalanta Edinoborstva vsego 3

A. Cambiaso Atalanta Edinoborstva vyigrano 11

A. Cambiaso Atalanta Fouls soversheno 2

A. Cambiaso Atalanta Fouls na igroke 1

A. Cambiaso Atalanta Seyvy 0

A. Cambiaso Atalanta football.player.minutes_played 79

A. Cambiaso Atalanta Klyuchevye pasy 49

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Atalanta 29.8% 30.9%

Draw 27.5% 27.4% draw risk

Juventus 42.7% 41.7% market and model agree

xG - 1.09 : 1.31

Total 2.5 Over 28.0% - Under 72.0%

Model check - - Difference 0.01

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 30.9% / 27.4% / 41.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,617 / 1,642 Atalanta / Juventus

RD 74 / 74 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.25 market consensus · no value · model 41.7%

X 3.42 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 3.18 market consensus · no value · model 30.9%

Double chance

X2 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 69.1%

12 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 72.6%

1X 1.64 market consensus · no value · model 58.3%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.36 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.12 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.20 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.31 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.74 market consensus · no value · model 28.0%

Under 2.5 2.12 market consensus · weak value +52.7% · model 72.0%

Both teams to score

No 2.29 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.58 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	3.05 32.8%	3.20 31.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.20 31.3%	3.25 30.8%
X	3.30 30.3%	3.50 28.6%	3.58 27.9%	3.40 29.4%	3.40 29.4%	3.40 29.4%
	2.28 43.9%	2.25 44.4%	2.30 43.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.25 44.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.20 45.5%	2.44 41.0%	2.30 43.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.35 42.6%	2.30 43.5%	2.38 42.0%	2.27 44.1%	2.25 44.4%
yes	1.62 61.7%	1.56 64.1%	1.56 64.1%	1.62 61.7%	1.55 64.5%	1.57 63.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.56 64.1%	1.60 62.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	1.36 73.5%	1.38 72.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.38 72.5%	1.30 76.9%	1.33 75.2%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.34 74.6%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%	1.25 80.0%	1.29 77.5%
home_draw	1.60 62.5%	1.69 59.2%	1.57 63.7%	1.67 59.9%	1.62 61.7%	1.60 62.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	—
Over 1.5	1.25 80.0%	—
Over 2.25	—	1.68 59.5%
Over 2.5	1.80 55.6%	1.85 54.1%
Over 2.75	—	1.90 52.6%
Over 3.0	—	2.31 43.3%
Over 3.5	3.00 33.3%	—
Over 4.5	5.50 18.2%	—
Under 0.5	9.00 11.1%	—
Under 1.5	3.70 27.0%	—
Under 2.25	—	2.22 45.1%
Under 2.5	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%
Under 2.75	—	2.00 50.0%
Under 3.0	—	1.59 62.9%
Under 3.5	1.38 72.5%	—
Under 4.5	1.14 87.7%	—

Match center

Atalanta

Founded 1907

Juventus

Founded 1897

Match center

Atalanta

GS G. Scamacca Muscle Injury

IH I. Hien Thigh Injury

Juventus

WM W. McKennie Yellow Cards

MP M. Perin Injury

Atalanta Founded: 1907

Juventus Founded: 1897

Match center

Atalanta

W W D D L

06.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Atalanta 3:0 Lecce

22.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Atalanta 1:0 Hellas Verona

14.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Atalanta 1:1 Inter

07.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

Atalanta 2:2 Udinese

01.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Atalanta 1:2 Sassuolo

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.0 Conceded

8 Points

Juventus

W D W W D

06.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Juventus 2:0 Genoa

21.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Juventus 1:1 Sassuolo

14.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Juventus 1:0 Udinese

07.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Juventus 4:0 Pisa

01.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Juventus 3:3 AS Roma

3 Wins

2 Draws

0 Losses

2.2 Scored

0.8 Conceded

11 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtalanta - Juventus

Atalanta

1 matches total

Juventus

Atalanta: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Juventus: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 27.09 16:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (27.09 16:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

27.09 16:00 UTC

Serie A

Atalanta

1:1

Juventus

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.