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Serie A
Serie A Italy
27.04.2025 18:45 UTC Match prediction
27.04.2025 18:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Atalanta - Lecce

Italy Football
Atalanta
Atalanta
1 : 1
Finished
Lecce
Lecce

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atalanta - Lecce April 27, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atalanta.

Line favourite market consensus: Atalanta. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.30 / X 5.98 / 2 10.34
  • 1X2 market: Atalanta 74.5% / X 16.2% / Lecce 9.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 59.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.3%
1 74.5%
X 16.2%
2 9.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.1%
Over 2.5 59.9%
Under 2.5 40.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 27.04.2025 18:45 UTC
Match center

Atalanta - Lecce

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
X 5.98 market consensus · line only
1 1.30 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.88 market consensus · line only
12 1.16 market consensus · line only
1X 1.08 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.62 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.42 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.30 76.9%
X 5.98 16.7%
10.34 9.7%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 3.88 25.8%
home_away 1.16 86.2%
home_draw 1.08 92.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 2.5 1.62 61.7%
Under 2.5 2.42 41.3%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.10 90.9%
8.75 11.4%
Match center
Atalanta
W W L W W
20.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:0 AC MilanAC Milan
13.04 10:30 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:0 BolognaBologna
06.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 0:1 LazioLazio
30.10 19:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:0 Monza
26.10 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 6:1 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.2 Scored
0.4 Conceded
12 Points
Lecce
L L D W L
19.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:3 ComoComo
12.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:2 JuventusJuventus
06.04 10:30 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:1 Venezia
29.10 17:30 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
26.10 13:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:1 NapoliNapoli
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.4 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtalanta - Lecce

Atalanta
0 matches total
Lecce
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history