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Serie A
Serie A Italy
14.09.2025 13:00 UTC Match prediction
14.09.2025 13:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Atalanta - Lecce

Italy Football
Atalanta
Atalanta
4 : 1
Finished
Lecce
Lecce

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atalanta - Lecce September 14, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atalanta.

Line favourite market consensus: Atalanta. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.37 / X 4.78 / 2 8.99
  • 1X2 market: Atalanta 69.4% / X 19.9% / Lecce 10.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 69.5%
X 19.9%
2 10.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5 53.4%
Under 2.5 46.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 14.09.2025 13:00 UTC
Match center

Atalanta - Lecce

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 9.00 market consensus · line only
X 4.79 market consensus · line only
1 1.37 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.05 market consensus · line only
12 1.18 market consensus · line only
1X 1.08 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.15 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.40 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 7.40 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.37 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.79 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.05 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.71 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.08 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.39 71.9%
X 4.85 20.6%
9.23 10.8%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.36 73.5% 1.35 74.1% 1.42 70.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4%
X 4.85 20.6% 4.95 20.2% 4.96 20.2% 4.50 22.2% 4.75 21.1% 4.90 20.4%
8.60 11.6% 10.00 10.0% 9.05 11.1% 8.50 11.8% 9.50 10.5% 9.25 10.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Dafabet Marathonbet
no 1.67 59.9% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.76 56.8% 1.68 59.5%
yes 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.06 48.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.08 48.1% 2.06 48.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Dafabet
draw_away 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 2.70 37.0%
home_away 1.13 88.5% 1.21 82.6% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8% 1.19 84.0%
home_draw 1.06 94.3% 1.08 92.6% 1.08 92.6% 1.07 93.5% 1.09 91.7% 1.10 90.9%
Match center
Atalanta
D D L W W
30.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 ParmaParma
24.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 PisaPisa
25.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:3 ParmaParma
17.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 3:2 GenoaGenoa
12.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:1 AS RomaAS Roma
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.6 Conceded
8 Points
Lecce
L D W W D
29.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:2 AC MilanAC Milan
23.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:0 GenoaGenoa
25.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:0 LazioLazio
18.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:0 TorinoTorino
11.05 13:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:1 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
0.6 Scored
0.6 Conceded
8 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtalanta - Lecce

Atalanta
1 matches total
Lecce
Atalanta: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Lecce: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 27.04 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (27.04 18:45 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

27.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta
1:1
Lecce