Match center
Start
05.04.2026 20:30 UTC
Sign in to unlock the full prediction
Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
05.04.2026 20:30 UTC
Finished
Serie A
Atletico-MG - Atletico Paranaense
2
:
1
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Atletico-MG — 48%
Model estimate: win Atletico-MG 47.7%, draw 26.3%, win Atletico Paranaense 26.0%. Model favourite — Atletico-MG.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Atletico-MG - Atletico Paranaense April 5, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atletico-MG.
Strongest: Atletico-MG - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.91 / X 3.37 / 2 4.08
- 1X2 market: Atletico-MG 49.1% / X 27.9% / Atletico Paranaense 23.1%
- Glicko: Atletico-MG 47.7% / X 26.3% / Atletico Paranaense 26.0%
- Total 2.5: over probability 81.6%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.5%
1
49.1%
X
27.9%
2
23.0%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.0%
Over 2.5
46.7%
Under 2.5
53.3%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement
4/4
Confidence
48.9%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:1
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Atletico-MG 48%
💹 Market
Atletico-MG 4909%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Atletico-MG - Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG: Win 1.90 Atletico-MG: Draw 3.30 Atletico Paranaense Win: 4.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.08 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Atletico-MG bolshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Atletico-MG menshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy …
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
yes
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
2:1
Events
0
Statistics
24
Lineups
9
Metric
Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.29
0.43
final
Zablokirovannye udary
7
5
final
Shots off target
3
3
final
Shots on target
5
3
final
Udary vsego
15
11
final
Fouls soversheno
9
13
final
Zheltye kartochki
0
1
final
Offsides
3
0
final
Atletico-MG
#9 K. Viveros, #14 Luiz Gustavo, #29 G. Benavídez, #33 J. Aguirre
Atletico Paranaense
#4 Ruan Tressoldi, #16 Renan Lodi
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
G. Benavídez
Atletico-MG
football.player.assists
0
G. Benavídez
Atletico-MG
Dribling popytki
1
G. Benavídez
Atletico-MG
Edinoborstva vsego
2
G. Benavídez
Atletico-MG
Edinoborstva vyigrano
3
G. Benavídez
Atletico-MG
Fouls soversheno
1
G. Benavídez
Atletico-MG
Seyvy
0
G. Benavídez
Atletico-MG
football.player.minutes_played
90
G. Benavídez
Atletico-MG
Tochnost pasov %
3
G. Benavídez
Atletico-MG
Klyuchevye pasy
55
G. Benavídez
Atletico-MG
Reyting (staryy)
6.9
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Atletico-MG
49.7%
47.7%
market and model agree
Draw
28.1%
26.3%
draw risk
Atletico Paranaense
22.1%
26.0%
xG
-
1.46 : 1.01
Total 2.5
Over 81.6%
-
Under 18.4%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
47.7% / 26.3% / 26.0%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,504 / 1,536
Atletico-MG / Atletico Paranaense
RD
111 / 109
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.08
market consensus · no value · model 26.0%
X
3.37
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.91
market consensus · no value · model 47.7%
Double chance
X2
1.84
market consensus · no value · model 52.3%
12
1.29
market consensus · no value · model 73.7%
1X
1.23
market consensus · no value · model 74.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.89
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.43
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
4.00
market consensus · line only
2 +1
7.30
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.02
market consensus · weak value +64.8% · model 81.6%
Under 2.5
1.77
market consensus · no value · model 18.4%
Both teams to score
No
1.87
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.84
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.90 52.6% | 1.98 50.5% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.87 53.5% | |
| X | 3.35 29.9% | 3.42 29.2% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.35 29.9% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.40 29.4% |
| 4.10 24.4% | 4.12 24.3% | 4.33 23.1% | 4.45 22.5% | 3.90 25.6% | 4.10 24.4% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.85 54.1% | 1.88 53.2% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.88 53.2% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.86 53.8% | 1.98 50.5% | 1.85 54.1% |
| yes | 1.83 54.6% | 1.82 55.0% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.82 55.0% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.85 54.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.85 54.1% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.93 51.8% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.83 54.6% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.32 75.8% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.25 80.0% |
| home_draw | 1.22 82.0% | 1.24 80.7% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.23 81.3% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.22 82.0% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.07 93.5% | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 0.75 | — | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 1.0 | — | 1.05 95.2% |
| Over 1.25 | — | 1.17 85.5% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.35 74.1% | 1.29 77.5% |
| Over 1.75 | — | 1.37 73.0% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.50 66.7% |
| Over 2.25 | — | 1.74 57.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.00 50.0% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.60 27.8% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 7.00 14.3% | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.00 12.5% | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.10 32.3% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.77 56.5% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.28 78.1% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.09 91.7% | — |
Match center
Atletico-MG
Founded
1908
Atletico Paranaense
Founded
1924
Match center
Atletico-MG
M
Maycon
Calf Injury
ÁP
Ángelo Preciado
Inactive
Atletico Paranaense
No away-team absences found in the prematch data.
Atletico-MG
Founded: 1908
Atletico Paranaense
Founded: 1924
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAtletico-MG - Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
Unlock the full match prediction
The Atletico-MG - Atletico Paranaense breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form