Post-match / SStats
Score
0:2
Events
15
Statistics
24
Lineups
45
min
Event
Player
Team
7'
7' Normal Goal | Donyell Malen | assist/sub out: Neil El Aynaoui
AS Roma
45+1'
45+1' Normal Goal | Neil El Aynaoui | assist/sub out: Donyell Malen
AS Roma
46'
46' Substitution 1 | Zeki Çelik | assist/sub out: Devyne Rensch
K. Wätjen
AS Roma
46'
46' Yellow Card | Mario Hermoso
D. Cissé
AS Roma
46'
46' Substitution 1 | Juan Miranda | assist/sub out: Nadir Zortea
Bologna
46'
46' Substitution 2 | Santiago Castro | assist/sub out: Jens Odgaard
Bologna
61'
61' Substitution 2 | Mario Hermoso | assist/sub out: Daniele Ghilardi
D. Cissé
AS Roma
61'
61' Substitution 3 | Matías Soulé | assist/sub out: Robinio Vaz
AS Roma
Metric
Bologna
AS Roma
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.5
2.13
final
Zablokirovannye udary
4
3
final
Shots off target
4
2
final
Shots on target
2
2
final
Udary vsego
10
7
final
Fouls soversheno
10
16
final
Zheltye kartochki
0
3
final
Offsides
2
3
final
Bologna
#4 B. Cristante, #5 E. Ndicka, #8 N. El Aynaoui, #14 Donyell Malen, #18 Matías Soulé, #19 Zeki Çelik, #22 Mario Hermoso, #23 G. Mancini, #43 Wesley, #61 N. Pisilli, #99 Mile Svilar
AS Roma
#5 E. Helland, #7 R. Orsolini, #8 R. Freuler, #9 S. Castro, #11 J. Rowe, #13 F. Ravaglia, #14 T. Heggem, #17 João Mário, #19 L. Ferguson, #26 J. Lucumi, #33 Juan Miranda
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
B. Domínguez
AS Roma
Seyvy
0
C. Lykogiannis
AS Roma
Seyvy
0
E. Helland
AS Roma
football.player.assists
0
E. Helland
AS Roma
Dribling popytki
4
E. Helland
AS Roma
Edinoborstva vsego
1
E. Helland
AS Roma
Edinoborstva vyigrano
4
E. Helland
AS Roma
Seyvy
0
E. Helland
AS Roma
football.player.minutes_played
77
E. Helland
AS Roma
Klyuchevye pasy
64
E. Helland
AS Roma
Reyting (staryy)
6.6
Market and Glicko
Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Bologna
31.5%
31.9%
Draw
29.2%
27.9%
draw risk
AS Roma
39.3%
40.3%
market and model agree
xG
-
1.09 : 1.26
Total 2.5
Over 40.4%
-
Under 59.6%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.01
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
31.9% / 27.9% / 40.3%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,518 / 1,610
Bologna / AS Roma
RD
71 / 73
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value:
no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.42
market consensus · no value · model 40.3%
X
3.21
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.99
market consensus · no value · model 31.9%
Double chance
X2
1.38
market consensus · no value · model 68.1%
12
1.33
market consensus · no value · model 72.2%
1X
1.54
market consensus · no value · model 59.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.40
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.13
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
2.37
market consensus · line only
2 +1
3.97
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.10
market consensus · no value · model 40.4%
Under 2.5
1.74
market consensus · weak value +3.8% · model 59.6%
Both teams to score
No
1.94
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.81
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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Como