PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
Serie A
Serie A Italy
12.04.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction
12.04.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Bologna - Lecce

Italy Football
Stadium Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
Capacity 39 279
Bologna
Bologna
2 : 0
Finished
Lecce
Lecce
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Bologna — 52%

1 · Bologna51.7%
X · draw27.0%
2 · Lecce21.3%

Model estimate: win Bologna 51.7%, draw 27.0%, win Lecce 21.3%. Model favourite — Bologna.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bologna - Lecce April 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bologna.

Strongest: Bologna - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.82 / X 3.34 / 2 4.97
  • 1X2 market: Bologna 52.3% / X 28.5% / Lecce 19.2%
  • Glicko: Bologna 51.7% / X 27.0% / Lecce 21.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 40.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 52.3%
X 28.5%
2 19.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5 42.7%
Under 2.5 57.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 52.6%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 12.04.2026 16:00 UTC
Stadium Stadio Renato Dall'Ara (Bologna)
Capacity 39,279

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ?????  ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Bologna 52%
💹 Market Bologna 5228%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Bologna - Lecce

Bologna: Win 1.80 Bologna: Draw 3.40 Lecce Win: 4.75 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Bologna bolshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Bologna menshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Lecce bolshe 0.5: …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:0
Events 14
Statistics 24
Lineups 43
min Event Player Team
26' 26' Normal Goal | Remo Freuler B. Ozer Bologna
36' 36' Yellow Card | Oumar Ngom Lecce
38' 38' Yellow Card | Jamil Siebert Lecce
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Corrie Ndaba | assist/sub out: Antonino Gallo Kaj Quirijns Lecce
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Oumar Ngom | assist/sub out: Omri Gandelman Lecce
64' 64' Substitution 3 | Nikola Štulić | assist/sub out: Walid Cheddira Lecce
64' 64' Substitution 4 | Lameck Banda | assist/sub out: Konan N'Dri Lecce
66' 66' Substitution 1 | João Mário | assist/sub out: Nadir Zortea Bologna
Metric Bologna Lecce SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.16 0.32 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 2 final
Shots off target 5 3 final
Shots on target 4 1 final
Udary vsego 12 6 final
Fouls soversheno 15 19 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 2 final
Offsides 4 0 final
Bologna #6 N. Moro, #7 R. Orsolini, #8 R. Freuler, #9 S. Castro, #16 N. Casale, #17 João Mário, #23 S. Sohm, #25 M. Pessina, #26 J. Lucumi, #28 N. Cambiaghi, #33 Juan Miranda
Lecce #3 C. Ndaba, #5 J. Siebert, #9 N. Stulic, #17 Danilo Veiga, #19 Lameck Banda, #20 Y. Ramadani, #29 Lassana Coulibaly, #30 Wladimiro Falcone, #44 Tiago Gabriel, #50 Santiago Pierotti, #79 O. Ngom
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Sala Lecce football.player.assists 0
A. Sala Lecce Edinoborstva vyigrano 1
A. Sala Lecce Seyvy 0
A. Sala Lecce football.player.minutes_played 12
A. Sala Lecce Klyuchevye pasy 2
A. Sala Lecce Reyting (staryy) 6.5
A. Sala Lecce Otbory vsego 2
A. Sala Lecce Yellow cards 1
Antonino Gallo Lecce football.player.assists 0
Antonino Gallo Lecce Dribling popytki 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Bologna 53.0% 51.7% market and model agree
Draw 28.5% 27.0% draw risk
Lecce 18.5% 21.3%
xG - 1.44 : 0.81
Total 2.5 Over 40.2% - Under 59.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 51.7% / 27.0% / 21.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,516 / 1,432 Bologna / Lecce
RD 72 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.97 market consensus · no value · model 21.3%
X 3.34 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.82 market consensus · no value · model 51.7%
Double chance
X2 1.98 market consensus · no value · model 48.3%
12 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 73.0%
1X 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 78.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.03 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.53 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.67 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.60 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.23 market consensus · no value · model 40.2%
Under 2.5 1.66 market consensus · no value · model 59.8%
Both teams to score
No 1.75 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.01 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.76 56.8% 1.84 54.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.35 29.9% 3.45 29.0% 3.30 30.3% 3.45 29.0% 3.30 30.3%
5.10 19.6% 4.95 20.2% 5.00 20.0% 4.75 21.1% 5.20 19.2% 5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.71 58.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.69 59.2% 1.71 58.5%
yes 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5% 2.04 49.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 2.04 49.0% 2.06 48.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 2.02 49.5% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.36 73.5% 1.30 76.9% 1.31 76.3% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.15 87.0% 1.21 82.6% 1.18 84.8% 1.20 83.3% 1.17 85.5% 1.18 84.8%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.08 92.6% — 1.04 96.2%
Over 0.75 — — 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.0 — — 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.25 — — 1.22 82.0%
Over 1.5 1.40 71.4% — 1.36 73.5%
Over 1.75 — — 1.47 68.0%
Over 2.25 — 1.99 50.3% —
Over 2.5 2.20 45.5% — —
Over 3.5 4.00 25.0% — —
Over 4.5 8.00 12.5% — —
Under 0.5 7.50 13.3% — —
Under 1.5 2.90 34.5% — —
Under 2.25 — 1.91 52.4% —
Under 2.5 1.65 60.6% — —
Under 3.5 1.22 82.0% — —
Under 4.5 1.07 93.5% — —
Match center
Bologna
Founded 1909
Lecce
Founded 1908
Match center
Bologna
ŁS Ł. Skorupski Muscle Injury
CL C. Lykogiannis Thigh Injury
Lecce
RS R. Sottil Back Injury
KG Kialonda Gaspar Knee Injury
Bologna Founded: 1909
Lecce Founded: 1908
Match center
Bologna
W L W L W
05.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 2:1 CremoneseCremonese
22.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 0:2 LazioLazio
15.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 1:0 SassuoloSassuolo
08.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 1:2 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
02.03 17:30 UTC Serie A
Bologna 1:0 PisaPisa
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Lecce
L L L W L
06.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:3 AtalantaAtalanta
22.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:1 AS RomaAS Roma
14.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:2 NapoliNapoli
08.03 11:30 UTC Serie A
Lecce 2:1 CremoneseCremonese
28.02 14:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:3 ComoComo
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.8 Scored
2.0 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBologna - Lecce

Bologna
1 matches total
Lecce
Bologna: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Lecce: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 28.09 16:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (28.09 16:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 2

Match history

28.09 16:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna
2:2
Lecce
Match center
? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.