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Serie A
Serie A Italy
09.11.2025 14:00 UTC Match prediction
09.11.2025 14:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Bologna - Napoli

Italy Football
Bologna
Bologna
2 : 0
Finished
Napoli
Napoli

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bologna - Napoli November 9, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Line favourite market consensus: Napoli. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.05 / X 2.97 / 2 2.57
  • 1X2 market: Bologna 31.1% / X 31.9% / Napoli 37.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 62.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 31.1%
X 32.0%
2 36.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%
Over 2.5 37.1%
Under 2.5 62.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 09.11.2025 14:00 UTC
Match center

Bologna - Napoli

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.57 market consensus · line only
X 2.98 market consensus · line only
1 3.06 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.38 market consensus · line only
12 1.39 market consensus · line only
1X 1.52 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.40 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.12 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.53 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.52 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.56 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.51 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.73 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.04 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.13 32.0%
X 3.04 32.9%
2.64 37.9%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.15 31.8% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.05 32.8%
X 2.94 34.0% 3.00 33.3% 3.09 32.4% 2.90 34.5% 2.90 34.5% 2.95 33.9%
2.52 39.7% 2.58 38.8% 2.67 37.5% 2.50 40.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.60 38.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.73 57.8% 1.74 57.5% 1.71 58.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.69 59.2% 1.78 56.2%
yes 2.00 50.0% 2.10 47.6% 2.04 49.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.02 49.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.04 49.0% 2.11 47.4%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.36 73.5% 1.41 70.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.41 70.9%
home_away 1.35 74.1% 1.42 70.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.38 72.5% 1.42 70.4%
home_draw 1.50 66.7% 1.54 64.9% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.52 65.8% 1.53 65.4%
Match center
Bologna
W D D W W
02.11 17:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 3:1 ParmaParma
29.10 19:45 UTC Serie A
Bologna 0:0 TorinoTorino
26.10 17:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 2:2 FiorentinaFiorentina
19.10 13:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 2:0 CagliariCagliari
05.10 13:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 4:0 PisaPisa
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
2.2 Scored
0.6 Conceded
11 Points
Napoli
D W W L W
01.11 17:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:0 ComoComo
28.10 17:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli 1:0 LecceLecce
25.10 16:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 3:1 InterInter
18.10 16:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:1 TorinoTorino
05.10 16:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:1 GenoaGenoa
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.6 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBologna - Napoli

Bologna
1 matches total
Napoli
Bologna: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Napoli: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 07.04 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (07.04 18:45 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

07.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Bologna
1:1
Napoli