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Serie A
Serie A Italy
28.12.2025 17:00 UTC Match prediction
28.12.2025 17:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Bologna - Sassuolo

Italy Football
Bologna
Bologna
1 : 1
Finished
Sassuolo
Sassuolo

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bologna - Sassuolo December 28, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bologna.

Line favourite market consensus: Bologna. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.96 / X 3.35 / 2 4.15
  • 1X2 market: Bologna 48.6% / X 28.4% / Sassuolo 23.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 48.6%
X 28.4%
2 23.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.5%
Over 2.5 47.1%
Under 2.5 52.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 28.12.2025 17:00 UTC
Match center

Bologna - Sassuolo

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.16 market consensus · line only
X 3.35 market consensus · line only
1 1.96 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.86 market consensus · line only
12 1.32 market consensus · line only
1X 1.24 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.88 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.45 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.97 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.40 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.03 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.81 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.93 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.82 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.00 50.0%
X 3.36 29.8%
4.31 23.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.94 51.6% 2.00 50.0% 2.01 49.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 2.02 49.5%
X 3.35 29.9% 3.40 29.4% 3.50 28.6% 3.30 30.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4%
4.10 24.4% 4.05 24.7% 4.30 23.3% 3.90 25.6% 4.20 23.8% 4.30 23.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.95 51.3% 1.98 50.5% 1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.88 53.2% 2.02 49.5%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.83 54.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.83 54.6% 1.89 52.9% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.89 52.9%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.32 75.8% 1.35 74.1%
home_draw 1.22 82.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.25 80.0%
Match center
Bologna
L D L W W
14.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Bologna 0:1 JuventusJuventus
07.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 1:1 LazioLazio
01.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Bologna 1:3 CremoneseCremonese
22.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 3:0 UdineseUdinese
09.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 2:0 NapoliNapoli
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
7 Points
Sassuolo
L D W L D
21.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 0:1 TorinoTorino
14.12 11:30 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 2:2 AC MilanAC Milan
06.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 3:1 FiorentinaFiorentina
28.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 0:2 ComoComo
24.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 2:2 PisaPisa
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.6 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBologna - Sassuolo

Bologna
0 matches total
Sassuolo
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history