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Serie A
Serie A Italy
27.04.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction
27.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Cagliari - Atalanta

Italy Football
Stadium Unipol Domus
Capacity 16 416
Cagliari
Cagliari
3 : 2
Finished
Atalanta
Atalanta
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Atalanta — 55%

1 · Cagliari19.7%
X · draw25.1%
2 · Atalanta ✓ Pick55.3%

Model estimate: win Cagliari 19.7%, draw 25.1%, win Atalanta 55.3%. Model favourite — Atalanta.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cagliari - Atalanta April 27, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atalanta.

Strongest: Atalanta - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.62 / X 3.73 / 2 1.73
  • 1X2 market: Cagliari 20.4% / X 25.3% / Atalanta 54.4%
  • Glicko: Cagliari 19.7% / X 25.1% / Atalanta 55.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 78.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%
1 20.4%
X 25.2%
2 ✓ Pick 54.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 49.1%
Under 2.5 50.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 55.6%
Total Over 2.5
Score 1:2

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 27.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Stadium Unipol Domus (Cagliari)
Capacity 16,416

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Atalanta 55%
💹 Market Atalanta 5439%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Cagliari - Atalanta

Cagliari: Win 4.75 Cagliari: Draw 3.50 Atalanta Win: 1.73 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Cagliari bolshe 0.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Cagliari menshe 0.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov Atalanta bo…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:2
Events 15
Statistics 22
Lineups 43
min Event Player Team
1' 1' Normal Goal | Paul Mendy | assist/sub out: Michel Adopo Cagliari
8' 8' Normal Goal | Paul Mendy Cagliari
40' 40' Normal Goal | G. Scamacca Atalanta
45' 45' Normal Goal | G. Scamacca | assist/sub out: G. Scalvini Atalanta
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Paul Mendy | assist/sub out: G. Borrelli Cagliari
47' 47' Normal Goal | G. Borrelli Cagliari
56' 56' Substitution 5 | Raoul Bellanova | assist/sub out: N. Krstović Atalanta
56' 56' Substitution 6 | Davide Zappacosta | assist/sub out: N. Zalewski V. Grifo Atalanta
Metric Cagliari Atalanta SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.56 1.18 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 3 final
Shots off target 3 3 final
Shots on target 4 6 final
Udary vsego 9 12 final
Fouls soversheno 8 11 final
Offsides 0 3 final
Ball possession, % 27 73 final
Cagliari #1 E. Caprile, #8 M. Adopo, #10 G. Gaetano, #14 A. Deiola, #26 Y. Mina, #31 P. Mendy, #32 Zé Pedro, #33 A. Obert, #90 M. Folorunsho, #94 S. Esposito
Atalanta #8 M. Pasalic, #9 G. Scamacca, #15 Marten de Roon, #16 R. Bellanova, #17 C. De Ketelaere, #18 G. Raspadori, #19 B. Djimsiti, #23 S. Kolasinac, #29 M. Carnesecchi, #42 G. Scalvini, #77 D. Zappacosta
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Albarracín Cagliari Seyvy 0
A. Belotti Cagliari football.player.assists 0
A. Belotti Cagliari Dribling popytki 1
A. Belotti Cagliari Dribling uspeshno 2
A. Belotti Cagliari Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Belotti Cagliari Edinoborstva vyigrano 4
A. Belotti Cagliari Seyvy 0
A. Belotti Cagliari football.player.minutes_played 13
A. Belotti Cagliari Klyuchevye pasy 1
A. Belotti Cagliari Reyting (staryy) 6.3
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Cagliari 19.4% 19.7%
Draw 24.9% 25.1% draw risk
Atalanta 55.7% 55.3% market and model agree
xG - 0.84 : 1.59
Total 2.5 Over 78.7% - Under 21.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.00
The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.00

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 19.7% / 25.1% / 55.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,447 / 1,608 Cagliari / Atalanta
RD 72 / 72 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.73 market consensus · no value · model 55.3%
X 3.73 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 4.62 market consensus · no value · model 19.7%
Double chance
X2 1.19 market consensus · no value · model 80.4%
12 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 74.9%
1X 2.08 market consensus · no value · model 44.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.18 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.02 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.70 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.33 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.94 market consensus · weak value +52.7% · model 78.7%
Under 2.5 1.87 market consensus · no value · model 21.3%
Both teams to score
No 1.90 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.84 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
4.75 21.1% 4.65 21.5% 4.40 22.7% 4.75 21.1% 4.50 22.2% 4.75 21.1%
X 3.75 26.7% 4.04 24.8% 3.60 27.8% 3.50 28.6% 3.90 25.6% 3.80 26.3%
1.69 59.2% 1.81 55.3% 1.73 57.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.67 59.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.90 52.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.85 54.1% 1.86 53.8% 1.93 51.8%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.84 54.4% 1.81 55.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.18 84.8% 1.23 81.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.23 81.3% 1.14 87.7%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 2.10 47.6% 2.11 47.4% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.12 47.2% 2.00 50.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — 1.15 87.0%
Over 1.5 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1%
Over 1.75 — 1.35 74.1%
Over 2.0 — 1.46 68.5%
Over 2.25 — 1.70 58.8%
Over 2.5 1.93 51.8% —
Over 3.5 3.35 29.9% —
Over 4.5 6.50 15.4% —
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5% —
Under 1.5 3.45 29.0% —
Under 2.5 1.85 54.1% —
Under 3.5 1.30 76.9% —
Under 4.5 1.10 90.9% —
Match center
Cagliari
Founded 1920
Atalanta
Founded 1907
Match center
Cagliari
L W L L L
17.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 0:3 InterInter
11.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:0 CremoneseCremonese
04.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:2 SassuoloSassuolo
20.03 17:30 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 0:1 NapoliNapoli
15.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:3 PisaPisa
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.8 Conceded
3 Points
Atalanta
D L W W D
18.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 AS RomaAS Roma
11.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 0:1 JuventusJuventus
06.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 3:0 LecceLecce
22.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
14.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 InterInter
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.6 Conceded
8 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCagliari - Atalanta

Cagliari
1 matches total
Atalanta
Cagliari: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Atalanta: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Atalanta 1:2 (13.12 19:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 13.12 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

13.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari
1:2
Atalanta
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.