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Serie A
Serie A Italy
11.04.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction
11.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Cagliari - Cremonese

Italy Football
Stadium Unipol Domus
Capacity 16 416
Cagliari
Cagliari
1 : 0
Finished
Cremonese
Cremonese
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Cagliari — 41%

1 · Cagliari41.2%
X · draw28.4%
2 · Cremonese30.4%

Model estimate: win Cagliari 41.2%, draw 28.4%, win Cremonese 30.4%. Model favourite — Cagliari.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cagliari - Cremonese April 11, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Cagliari.

Strongest: Cagliari - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.08 / X 3.13 / 2 3.94
  • 1X2 market: Cagliari 45.6% / X 30.3% / Cremonese 24.1%
  • Glicko: Cagliari 41.2% / X 28.4% / Cremonese 30.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 38.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 45.6%
X 30.3%
2 24.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 40.1%
Under 2.5 59.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 43.3%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 11.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Stadium Unipol Domus (Cagliari)
Capacity 16,416

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Cagliari 41%
💹 Market Cagliari 4559%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Cagliari - Cremonese

Cagliari: Win 2.15 Cagliari: Draw 3.10 Cremonese Win: 3.60 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.30 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Cagliari bolshe 1.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov Cagliari menshe 1.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Cremonese …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 13
Statistics 24
Lineups 44
min Event Player Team
4' 4' Yellow Card | Filippo Terracciano Cremonese
31' 31' Substitution 1 | Luca Mazzitelli | assist/sub out: Michel Adopo Cagliari
61' 61' Substitution 2 | Michael Folorunsho | assist/sub out: Zé Pedro Cagliari
61' 61' Substitution 3 | Gennaro Borrelli | assist/sub out: Paul Mendy Cagliari
62' 62' Yellow Card | Michel Adopo Cagliari
63' 63' Normal Goal | Sebastiano Esposito | assist/sub out: Zé Pedro Cagliari
68' 68' Substitution 1 | Romano Floriani Mussolini | assist/sub out: Antonio Sanabria Cremonese
68' 68' Substitution 2 | Jari Vandeputte | assist/sub out: Martín Payero Cremonese
Metric Cagliari Cremonese SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.17 0.28 final
Zablokirovannye udary 5 1 final
Shots off target 7 2 final
Shots on target 5 2 final
Udary vsego 17 5 final
Fouls soversheno 9 17 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 1 final
Offsides 1 1 final
Cagliari #1 E. Caprile, #2 M. Palestra, #4 L. Mazzitelli, #10 G. Gaetano, #14 A. Deiola, #26 Y. Mina, #29 G. Borrelli, #33 A. Obert, #90 M. Folorunsho, #94 S. Esposito
Cremonese #1 Emil Audero, #3 Giuseppe Pezzella, #5 Sebastiano Luperto, #6 F. Baschirotto, #22 Romano Floriani Mussolini, #24 Filippo Terracciano, #27 Jari Vandeputte, #33 Alberto Grassi, #38 W. Bondo, #77 David Okereke, #90 Federico Bonazzoli
Player Team Metric SStats
Alberto Grassi Cremonese football.player.assists 0
Alberto Grassi Cremonese Dribling popytki 1
Alberto Grassi Cremonese Edinoborstva vsego 1
Alberto Grassi Cremonese Edinoborstva vyigrano 4
Alberto Grassi Cremonese Seyvy 0
Alberto Grassi Cremonese football.player.minutes_played 90
Alberto Grassi Cremonese Klyuchevye pasy 58
Alberto Grassi Cremonese Reyting (staryy) 7.2
Alberto Grassi Cremonese Bloki 1
Alberto Grassi Cremonese Perekhvaty 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Cagliari 44.0% 41.2% market and model agree
Draw 30.6% 28.4% draw risk
Cremonese 25.5% 30.4%
xG - 1.24 : 1.03
Total 2.5 Over 38.0% - Under 62.0%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 41.2% / 28.4% / 30.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,444 / 1,417 Cagliari / Cremonese
RD 73 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.94 market consensus · no value · model 30.4%
X 3.13 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.08 market consensus · no value · model 41.2%
Double chance
X2 1.74 market consensus · no value · model 58.9%
12 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 71.6%
1X 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 69.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.77 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.33 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.79 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.80 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.38 market consensus · no value · model 38.0%
Under 2.5 1.59 market consensus · no value · model 62.0%
Both teams to score
No 1.75 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.00 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.16 46.3% 2.08 48.1% 2.13 47.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6%
X 3.10 32.3% 3.15 31.8% 3.24 30.9% 3.20 31.3% 3.15 31.8% 3.10 32.3%
3.55 28.2% 4.10 24.4% 4.18 23.9% 3.90 25.6% 3.90 25.6% 4.10 24.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.72 58.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.71 58.5% 1.73 57.8%
yes 1.95 51.3% 2.02 49.5% 2.02 49.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5% 2.04 49.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.67 59.9% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.39 71.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.34 74.6% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.28 78.1% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.09 91.7% — 1.05 95.2%
Over 0.75 — — 1.07 93.5%
Over 1.0 — — 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.25 — — 1.26 79.4%
Over 1.5 1.42 70.4% — 1.41 70.9%
Over 1.75 — — 1.53 65.4%
Over 2.25 — 2.10 47.6% —
Over 2.5 2.25 44.4% — —
Over 3.5 4.20 23.8% — —
Over 4.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 0.5 7.00 14.3% — —
Under 1.5 2.80 35.7% — —
Under 2.25 — 1.80 55.6% —
Under 2.5 1.62 61.7% — —
Under 3.5 1.22 82.0% — —
Under 4.5 1.06 94.3% — —
Match center
Cagliari
Founded 1920
Cremonese
Founded 1903
Match center
Cagliari
LP L. Pavoletti Injury
MF M. Felici Knee Injury
Cremonese
JV J. Vardy Muscle Injury
MT M. Thorsby Injury
Cagliari Founded: 1920
Cremonese Founded: 1903
Match center
Cagliari
L L L L D
04.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:2 SassuoloSassuolo
20.03 17:30 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 0:1 NapoliNapoli
15.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:3 PisaPisa
07.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:2 ComoComo
27.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:1 ParmaParma
0 Wins
1 Draws
4 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
1 Points
Cremonese
L W L L L
05.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Cremonese 1:2 BolognaBologna
21.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Cremonese 2:0 ParmaParma
16.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Cremonese 1:4 FiorentinaFiorentina
08.03 11:30 UTC Serie A
Cremonese 1:2 LecceLecce
01.03 11:30 UTC Serie A
Cremonese 0:2 AC MilanAC Milan
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCagliari - Cremonese

Cagliari
1 matches total
Cremonese
Cagliari: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Cremonese: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 08.01 17:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (08.01 17:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 2

Match history

08.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Cagliari
2:2
Cremonese
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.