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Serie A
Serie A Italy
20.03.2026 17:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction
20.03.2026 17:30 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Cagliari - Napoli

Italy Futbol
Stadium Unipol Domus
Referee Maurizio Mariani
Capacity 16 416
Cagliari
Cagliari
0 : 1
Finished
Napoli
Napoli
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Napoli — 52%

1 · Cagliari21.5%
X · draw26.3%
2 · Napoli52.2%

Model estimate: win Cagliari 21.5%, draw 26.3%, win Napoli 52.2%. Model favourite — Napoli.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cagliari - Napoli 20 марта 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Strongest: Napoli - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.31 / X 3.40 / 2 1.75
  • 1X2 market: Cagliari 17.9% / X 27.9% / Napoli 54.2%
  • Glicko: Cagliari 21.5% / X 26.3% / Napoli 52.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 26.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 17.9%
X 27.9%
2 54.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 39.3%
Under 2.5 60.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П2

Main outcome П2
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 53.4%
Total ТМ 2.5
Score 0:1

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: 100 RUB

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Match center
Start 20.03.2026 17:30 UTC
Stadium Unipol Domus (Cagliari)
Referee Maurizio Mariani
Capacity 16,416

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Napoli 52%
💹 Market Napoli 5418%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Cagliari - Napoli

Cagliari: Победа 5.59 Cagliari: Ничья 3.46 Napoli Победа: 1.78 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 2.43 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 1.61 Индивидуальный тотал голов Cagliari больше 0.5: 1.79 Индивидуальный тотал голов Cagliari меньше 0.5: 2.09 Индивидуальный тотал голов Napoli больше…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 3
Statistics 24
Lineups 39
min Event Player Team
2' 2' Normal Goal | Scott McTominay K. Ajer Napoli
17' 17' Yellow Card | Stanislav Lobotka Napoli
35' 35' Yellow Card | Zé Pedro Cagliari
Metric Cagliari Napoli SStats
Ожидаемые голы (xG) 0.33 1.74 final
Заблокированные удары 0 8 final
Удары мимо 7 4 final
Удары в створ 0 5 final
Удары всего 7 17 final
Фолы совершено 12 16 final
Желтые карточки 2 2 final
Офсайды 0 2 final
Cagliari #1 E. Caprile, #2 M. Palestra, #8 M. Adopo, #10 G. Gaetano, #22 Alberto Dossena, #25 I. Sulemana, #26 Y. Mina, #32 Zé Pedro, #90 M. Folorunsho, #94 S. Esposito
Napoli #3 Miguel Gutiérrez, #4 A. Buongiorno, #6 B. Gilmour, #8 S. McTominay, #11 K. De Bruyne, #17 M. Olivera, #19 Rasmus Højlund, #21 M. Politano, #31 Sam Beukema, #32 V. Milinkovic-Savic, #68 S. Lobotka
Player Team Metric SStats
J. Liteta Сейвы 0
A. Buongiorno Napoli football.player.assists 0
A. Buongiorno Napoli Дриблинг попытки 4
A. Buongiorno Napoli Единоборства всего 1
A. Buongiorno Napoli Единоборства выиграно 7
A. Buongiorno Napoli Сейвы 0
A. Buongiorno Napoli football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Buongiorno Napoli Ключевые пасы 75
A. Buongiorno Napoli Пасы всего 1
A. Buongiorno Napoli Рейтинг (старый) 7.2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Cagliari 17.4% 21.5%
Draw 28.2% 26.3% draw risk
Napoli 54.3% 52.2% market and model agree
xG - 0.85 : 1.49
Total 2.5 Over 26.8% - Under 73.2%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 21.5% / 26.3% / 52.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,452 / 1,644 Cagliari / Napoli
RD 74 / 78 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.74 market consensus · no value · model 52.2%
X 3.43 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 5.37 market consensus · no value · model 21.5%
Double chance
X2 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 78.5%
12 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 73.7%
1X 2.08 market consensus · no value · model 47.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.15 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.72 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.44 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 4.98 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.42 market consensus · no value · model 26.8%
Under 2.5 1.57 market consensus · value +15.0% · model 73.2%
Both teams to score
No 1.62 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.22 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 6.11 16.4%
Х 3.87 25.8%
П2 1.62 61.7%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
П1 5.40 18.5% 5.20 19.2% 5.45 18.4% 5.00 20.0% 5.00 20.0% 5.70 17.5%
Х 3.30 30.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.52 28.4% 3.30 30.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.50 28.6%
П2 1.71 58.5% 1.77 56.5% 1.83 54.6% 1.73 57.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.78 56.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5%
yes 2.20 45.5% 2.22 45.1% 2.19 45.7% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5% 2.19 45.7%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.14 87.7% 1.19 84.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.11 90.1%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 2.05 48.8% 2.09 47.9% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.12 47.2% 2.10 47.6%
Match center
Cagliari
Founded 1920
Napoli
Founded 1904
Match center
Cagliari
AB A. Belotti Knee Injury
GB G. Borrelli Thigh Injury
Napoli
DN David Neres Ankle Injury
AR Amir Rrahmani Injury
Cagliari Founded: 1920
Napoli Founded: 1904
Match center
Cagliari
L L D D L
15.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:3 PisaPisa
07.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:2 ComoComo
27.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:1 ParmaParma
21.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 0:0 LazioLazio
16.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 0:2 LecceLecce
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
2 Points
Napoli
W W W L D
14.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:1 LecceLecce
06.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:1 TorinoTorino
28.02 17:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:1 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
22.02 14:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 1:2 AtalantaAtalanta
15.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:2 AS RomaAS Roma
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCagliari - Napoli

Cagliari
3 matches total
Napoli
Cagliari: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Napoli: 3 (100%)
Biggest win Napoli 0:4 (15.09 16:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (0:4, 15.09 16:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 7
7 Goals conceded 0

Match history

30.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari
0:1
Napoli
23.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari
0:2
Napoli
15.09 16:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari
0:4
Napoli
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.