Match center
Start
05.04.2026 19:00 UTC
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05.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished
Serie A
Chapecoense-sc - Vitoria
1
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Chapecoense-sc - Vitoria April 5, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Chapecoense-sc.
Line favourite market consensus: Chapecoense-sc. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.40 / X 3.22 / 2 2.93
- 1X2 market: Chapecoense-sc 39.0% / X 29.1% / Vitoria 32.0%
- Glicko: Chapecoense-sc - / X 100.0% / Vitoria -
- Total 2.5: over probability 80.5%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.9%
1
39.0%
X
29.1%
2
31.9%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.0%
Over 2.5
44.5%
Under 2.5
55.5%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
4/4
Confidence
60.9%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:2
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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Match center
Chapecoense-sc - Vitoria
Chapecoense-sc: Win 2.50 Chapecoense-sc: Draw 3.20 Vitoria Win: 2.88 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.10 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.70 Individualnyy total golov Chapecoense-sc bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Chapecoense-sc menshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy …
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
yes
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:1
Events
20
Statistics
26
Lineups
4
min
Event
Player
Team
0'
0' Yellow Card | Everton
Chapecoense-sc
18'
18' Substitution 1 | Everton | assist/sub out: Marcos Vinicius
Chapecoense-sc
37'
37' Yellow Card | Edenilson
Vitoria
38'
38' Red Card | Edenilson
Vitoria
45'
45' Yellow Card | Camutanga
Vitoria
46'
46' Substitution 8 | Bruno Pacheco | assist/sub out: W. Clar
Kauan Lindes
Chapecoense-sc
46'
46' Substitution 4 | Renato Kayzer | assist/sub out: Rene
A. Martin
Vitoria
46'
46' Substitution 5 | Ronald Lopes | assist/sub out: Nathan Mendes
Vitoria
Metric
Chapecoense-sc
Vitoria
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
2.15
1.45
final
Zablokirovannye udary
8
4
final
Shots off target
11
2
final
Shots on target
6
9
final
Udary vsego
25
15
final
Fouls soversheno
16
14
final
Red cards
0
1
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
3
final
Chapecoense-sc
#91 Bruno Pacheco
Vitoria
#13 Ramon, #25 Cacá
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Bruno Pacheco
Chapecoense-sc
football.player.assists
0
Bruno Pacheco
Chapecoense-sc
Dribling popytki
1
Bruno Pacheco
Chapecoense-sc
Edinoborstva vyigrano
3
Bruno Pacheco
Chapecoense-sc
Fouls soversheno
1
Bruno Pacheco
Chapecoense-sc
Seyvy
0
Bruno Pacheco
Chapecoense-sc
football.player.minutes_played
45
Bruno Pacheco
Chapecoense-sc
Tochnost pasov %
1
Bruno Pacheco
Chapecoense-sc
Klyuchevye pasy
18
Bruno Pacheco
Chapecoense-sc
Reyting (staryy)
6.7
Bruno Pacheco
Chapecoense-sc
Otbory vsego
14
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Chapecoense-sc
39.4%
-
market favourite
Draw
28.6%
100.0%
draw risk
Vitoria
31.9%
-
Total 2.5
Over 80.5%
-
Under 19.5%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.71
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.71
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
Rating
1,403 / 1,467
Chapecoense-sc / Vitoria
RD
130 / 115
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.93
market consensus · line only
X
3.22
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.40
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.54
market consensus · line only
12
1.32
market consensus · line only
1X
1.39
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.56
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.20
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
2.90
market consensus · line only
2 +1
5.47
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.12
market consensus · weak value +70.6% · model 80.5%
Under 2.5
1.70
market consensus · no value · model 19.5%
Both teams to score
No
1.88
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.84
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.40 41.7% | 2.47 40.5% | 2.40 41.7% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.40 41.7% | 2.38 42.0% | |
| X | 3.20 31.3% | 3.25 30.8% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.25 30.8% | 3.25 30.8% | 3.20 31.3% |
| 2.92 34.3% | 3.04 32.9% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.00 33.3% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.90 34.5% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.85 54.1% | 1.86 53.8% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.88 53.2% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.84 54.4% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.85 54.1% |
| yes | 1.85 54.1% | 1.84 54.4% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.84 54.4% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.85 54.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.55 64.5% | 1.56 64.1% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.50 66.7% |
| home_away | 1.28 78.1% | 1.35 74.1% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.30 76.9% |
| home_draw | 1.38 72.5% | 1.39 71.9% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.42 70.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.36 73.5% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.07 93.5% | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.0 | — | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 1.25 | — | 1.18 84.8% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.38 72.5% | 1.32 75.8% |
| Over 1.75 | — | 1.42 70.4% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.57 63.7% |
| Over 2.25 | — | 1.85 54.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.15 46.5% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 4.00 25.0% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 8.00 12.5% | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.00 12.5% | — |
| Under 1.5 | 2.95 33.9% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.67 59.9% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.22 82.0% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.07 93.5% | — |
Match center
Chapecoense-sc
Founded
1973
Vitoria
Founded
1899
Match center
Chapecoense-sc
GA
Giovanni Augusto
Injury
BM
Bruno Matias
Knee Injury
Vitoria
GB
Gabriel Baralhas
Yellow Cards
RK
Renato Kayzer
Inactive
Chapecoense-sc
Founded: 1973
Vitoria
Founded: 1899
Match center
Full head-to-head historyChapecoense-sc - Vitoria
Chapecoense-sc
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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