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Serie A Italy

12.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

12.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Finished

Serie A

Como - Inter

Italy Football

Stadium Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Capacity 13 602

Como

3 : 4

Finished

Inter

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Inter — 47%

1 · Como27.3%

X · draw26.0%

2 · Inter46.7%

Model estimate: win Como 27.3%, draw 26.0%, win Inter 46.7%. Model favourite — Inter.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Como - Inter April 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Inter.

Strongest: Inter - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.11 / X 3.24 / 2 2.39
1X2 market: Como 30.7% / X 29.4% / Inter 39.9%
Glicko: Como 27.3% / X 26.0% / Inter 46.7%
Total 2.5: over probability 38.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%

1 30.7%

X 29.4%

2 39.9%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.5%

Over 2.5 48.6%

Under 2.5 51.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 43.3%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 12.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Stadium Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia (Como)

Capacity 13,602

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Inter 47%

💹 Market Inter 3991%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Como - Inter

Como: Win 3.10 Como: Draw 3.25 Inter Win: 2.38 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Como bolshe 1.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov Como menshe 1.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov Inter bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individ…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:4

Events 28

Statistics 24

Lineups 48

min Event Player Team

24' 24' Yellow Card | Álex Valle Como

36' 36' Normal Goal Como

45' 45' Normal Goal | N. Paz | assist/sub out: J. Butez Como

45' 45' Normal Goal | M. Thuram | assist/sub out: N. Barella A. Flynn Inter

46' 46' Substitution 1 | A. Bastoni | assist/sub out: Carlos Augusto Inter

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Diego Carlos | assist/sub out: Jacobo Ramón Naveros Alessandro Cardinali Como

46' 46' Substitution 2 | Sergi Roberto | assist/sub out: L. Da Cunha Como

49' 49' Normal Goal | M. Thuram A. Flynn Inter

Metric Como Inter SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 3.12 0.88 final

Zablokirovannye udary 7 1 final

Shots off target 9 1 final

Shots on target 8 5 final

Udary vsego 24 7 final

Fouls soversheno 12 17 final

Zheltye kartochki 3 7 final

Offsides 2 4 final

Como #1 Yann Sommer, #2 Denzel Dumfries, #7 P. Zielinski, #9 M. Thuram, #15 Francesco Acerbi, #20 Hakan Çalhanoğlu, #23 N. Barella, #25 M. Akanji, #32 F. Dimarco, #94 F. Esposito, #95 A. Bastoni

Inter #1 Jean Butez, #2 Marc Kempf, #3 A. Valle, #8 Sergi Roberto, #10 N. Paz, #11 A. Douvikas, #20 M. Baturina, #23 M. Perrone, #34 Diego Carlos, #38 A. Diao, #77 Ignace Van der Brempt

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Bastoni Como football.player.assists 0

A. Bastoni Como Dribling popytki 2

A. Bastoni Como Edinoborstva vyigrano 5

A. Bastoni Como Seyvy 0

A. Bastoni Como football.player.minutes_played 45

A. Bastoni Como Klyuchevye pasy 22

A. Bastoni Como Reyting (staryy) 6.2

A. Bastoni Como Bloki 1

A. Bastoni Como Perekhvaty 1

A. Bastoni Como Otbory vsego 18

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Como 30.8% 27.3%

Draw 29.1% 26.0% draw risk

Inter 40.1% 46.7% market and model agree

xG - 1.07 : 1.48

Total 2.5 Over 38.0% - Under 62.0%

Model check - - Difference 0.07

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.07

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 27.3% / 26.0% / 46.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,652 / 1,739 Como / Inter

RD 74 / 78 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.39 market consensus · weak value +11.6% · model 46.7%

X 3.24 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 3.11 market consensus · no value · model 27.3%

Double chance

X2 1.37 market consensus · no value · model 72.7%

12 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 74.0%

1X 1.58 market consensus · no value · model 53.3%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.38 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.13 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.34 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.75 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.97 market consensus · no value · model 38.0%

Under 2.5 1.86 market consensus · value +15.4% · model 62.0%

Both teams to score

No 2.06 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.71 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	3.05 32.8%	3.20 31.3%	3.22 31.1%	3.10 32.3%	3.10 32.3%	3.20 31.3%
X	3.20 31.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.33 30.0%	3.25 30.8%	3.20 31.3%	3.25 30.8%
	2.34 42.7%	2.38 42.0%	2.47 40.5%	2.38 42.0%	2.40 41.7%	2.40 41.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.05 48.8%	2.13 47.0%	2.04 49.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.10 47.6%	2.05 48.8%	2.00 50.0%	2.02 49.5%	2.10 47.6%
yes	1.73 57.8%	1.72 58.1%	1.71 58.5%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.73 57.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.71 58.5%	1.70 58.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	1.36 73.5%	1.40 71.4%	1.36 73.5%	1.39 71.9%	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%
home_away	1.30 76.9%	1.38 72.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.25 80.0%	1.29 77.5%
home_draw	1.57 63.7%	1.61 62.1%	1.57 63.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.57 63.7%	1.53 65.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.06 94.3%	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.04 96.2%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.06 94.3%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.17 85.5%
Over 1.5	1.33 75.2%	—	1.29 77.5%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.36 73.5%
Over 2.5	1.95 51.3%	2.03 49.3%	—
Over 3.5	3.40 29.4%	—	—
Over 4.5	6.50 15.4%	—	—
Under 0.5	8.50 11.8%	—	—
Under 1.5	3.30 30.3%	—	—
Under 2.5	1.83 54.6%	1.87 53.5%	—
Under 3.5	1.30 76.9%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.10 90.9%	—	—

Match center

Como

Founded 1907

Inter

Founded 1908

Match center

Como

JA J. Addai Achilles Tendon Injury

JR Jacobo Ramón Naveros Muscle Injury

Inter

LM Lautaro Martínez Calf Injury

YB Y. Bisseck Thigh Injury

Como Founded: 1907

Inter Founded: 1908

Match center

Como

D W W W W

06.04 10:30 UTC Serie A

Como 0:0 Udinese

22.03 11:30 UTC Serie A

Como 5:0 Pisa

15.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

Como 2:1 AS Roma

07.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Como 2:1 Cagliari

28.02 14:00 UTC Serie A

Como 3:1 Lecce

4 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

2.4 Scored

0.6 Conceded

13 Points

Inter

W D D L W

05.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Inter 5:2 AS Roma

22.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Inter 1:1 Fiorentina

14.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Inter 1:1 Atalanta

08.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Inter 0:1 AC Milan

28.02 19:45 UTC Serie A

Inter 2:0 Genoa

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.8 Scored

1.0 Conceded

8 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyComo - Inter

Como

2 matches total

Inter

Como: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Inter: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Inter 0:4 (06.12 17:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (0:4, 06.12 17:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 6

6 Goals conceded 0

Match history

06.12 17:00 UTC

Serie A

Como

0:4

Inter

23.05 18:45 UTC

Serie A

Como

0:2

Inter

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.