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Serie A Italy

05.04.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction

05.04.2026 13:00 UTC

Finished

Serie A

Cremonese - Bologna

Italy Football

Stadium Stadio Giovanni Zini

Capacity 20 034

Cremonese

1 : 2

Finished

Bologna

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Bologna — 45%

1 · Cremonese27.4%

X · draw27.3%

2 · Bologna45.3%

Model estimate: win Cremonese 27.4%, draw 27.3%, win Bologna 45.3%. Model favourite — Bologna.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cremonese - Bologna April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bologna.

Strongest: Bologna - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.33 / X 3.31 / 2 2.22
1X2 market: Cremonese 28.5% / X 28.7% / Bologna 42.8%
Glicko: Cremonese 27.4% / X 27.3% / Bologna 45.3%
Total 2.5: over probability 34.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%

1 28.5%

X 28.7%

2 42.8%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%

Over 2.5 48.3%

Under 2.5 51.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 44.8%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 05.04.2026 13:00 UTC

Stadium Stadio Giovanni Zini (Cremona)

Capacity 20,034

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Bologna 45%

💹 Market Bologna 4279%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Cremonese - Bologna

Cremonese: Win 3.40 Cremonese: Draw 3.30 Bologna Win: 2.20 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.10 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Cremonese bolshe 0.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov Cremonese menshe 0.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov Bologna …

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:2

Events 19

Statistics 26

Lineups 44

min Event Player Team

3' 3' Normal Goal | João Mário Bologna

16' 16' Normal Goal | Jonathan Rowe Bologna

45' 45' Yellow Card | Youssef Maleh Cremonese

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Jari Vandeputte | assist/sub out: Morten Thorsby Cremonese

46' 46' Substitution 2 | Alberto Grassi | assist/sub out: Warren Bondo Cremonese

46' 46' Substitution 3 | Milan Đurić | assist/sub out: David Okereke Cremonese

53' 53' Substitution 4 | Morten Thorsby | assist/sub out: Martín Payero Cremonese

61' 61' Substitution 1 | Federico Bernardeschi | assist/sub out: Riccardo Orsolini Filip Jørgensen Bologna

Metric Cremonese Bologna SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.42 1.14 final

Zablokirovannye udary 2 2 final

Shots off target 4 5 final

Shots on target 3 7 final

Udary vsego 9 14 final

Fouls soversheno 15 15 final

Red cards 1 1 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 3 final

Cremonese #6 N. Moro, #8 R. Freuler, #9 S. Castro, #10 F. Bernardeschi, #11 J. Rowe, #13 F. Ravaglia, #17 João Mário, #23 S. Sohm, #26 J. Lucumi, #33 Juan Miranda, #41 M. Vitík

Bologna #1 Emil Audero, #3 Giuseppe Pezzella, #5 Sebastiano Luperto, #7 Alessio Zerbin, #9 Milan Đurić, #15 Matteo Bianchetti, #24 Filippo Terracciano, #27 Jari Vandeputte, #29 Youssef Maleh, #33 Alberto Grassi, #90 Federico Bonazzoli

Player Team Metric SStats

E. Helland Cremonese Seyvy 0

F. Bernardeschi Cremonese football.player.assists 0

F. Bernardeschi Cremonese Dribling popytki 3

F. Bernardeschi Cremonese Dribling uspeshno 3

F. Bernardeschi Cremonese Edinoborstva vyigrano 4

F. Bernardeschi Cremonese Fouls na igroke 2

F. Bernardeschi Cremonese Seyvy 0

F. Bernardeschi Cremonese football.player.minutes_played 61

F. Bernardeschi Cremonese Klyuchevye pasy 40

F. Bernardeschi Cremonese Reyting (staryy) 6.9

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Cremonese 27.2% 27.4%

Draw 28.7% 27.3% draw risk

Bologna 44.1% 45.3% market and model agree

xG - 1.00 : 1.37

Total 2.5 Over 34.5% - Under 65.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.01

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 27.4% / 27.3% / 45.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,425 / 1,509 Cremonese / Bologna

RD 74 / 73 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.22 market consensus · no value · model 45.3%

X 3.31 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 3.33 market consensus · no value · model 27.4%

Double chance

X2 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 72.7%

12 1.32 market consensus · no value · model 72.7%

1X 1.65 market consensus · no value · model 54.7%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.32 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.09 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.15 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.36 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.98 market consensus · no value · model 34.5%

Under 2.5 1.85 market consensus · value +21.2% · model 65.5%

Both teams to score

No 2.02 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.74 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	3.25 30.8%	3.40 29.4%	3.46 28.9%	3.20 31.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.30 30.3%
X	3.25 30.8%	3.35 29.9%	3.46 28.9%	3.20 31.3%	3.40 29.4%	3.30 30.3%
	2.20 45.5%	2.23 44.8%	2.29 43.7%	2.20 45.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.25 44.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.05 48.8%	2.08 48.1%	2.02 49.5%	2.00 50.0%	1.95 51.3%	2.07 48.3%	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	1.99 50.3%
yes	1.73 57.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.70 58.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.67 59.9%	1.73 57.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.30 76.9%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.36 73.5%	1.30 76.9%	1.33 75.2%	1.32 75.8%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.65 60.6%	1.70 58.8%	1.62 61.7%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.62 61.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.06 94.3%	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.15 87.0%
Over 1.5	1.30 76.9%	—	—
Over 2.25	—	1.82 55.0%	—
Over 2.5	1.93 51.8%	2.03 49.3%	—
Over 3.5	3.35 29.9%	—	—
Over 4.5	6.50 15.4%	—	—
Under 0.5	8.50 11.8%	—	—
Under 1.5	3.35 29.9%	—	—
Under 2.25	—	2.08 48.1%	—
Under 2.5	1.85 54.1%	1.89 52.9%	—
Under 3.5	1.30 76.9%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.10 90.9%	—	—

Match center

Cremonese

Founded 1903

Bologna

Founded 1909

Match center

Cremonese

AS Antonio Sanabria Hip Injury

JV J. Vardy Muscle Injury

Bologna

ŁS Ł. Skorupski Muscle Injury

JO J. Odgaard Thigh Injury

Cremonese Founded: 1903

Bologna Founded: 1909

Match center

Cremonese

W L L L L

21.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Cremonese 2:0 Parma

16.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Cremonese 1:4 Fiorentina

08.03 11:30 UTC Serie A

Cremonese 1:2 Lecce

01.03 11:30 UTC Serie A

Cremonese 0:2 AC Milan

22.02 19:45 UTC Serie A

Cremonese 0:3 AS Roma

1 Wins

0 Draws

4 Losses

0.8 Scored

2.2 Conceded

3 Points

Bologna

L W L W W

22.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Bologna 0:2 Lazio

15.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Bologna 1:0 Sassuolo

08.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Bologna 1:2 Hellas Verona

02.03 17:30 UTC Serie A

Bologna 1:0 Pisa

23.02 19:45 UTC Serie A

Bologna 1:0 Udinese

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

0.8 Scored

0.8 Conceded

9 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyCremonese - Bologna

Cremonese

1 matches total

Bologna

Cremonese: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Bologna: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Cremonese 3:1 (01.12 19:45 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (3:1, 01.12 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 3

Match history

01.12 19:45 UTC

Serie A

Cremonese

3:1

Bologna

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.