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Serie A Italy

35 round 04.05.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction

04.05.2026 16:30 UTC 35 round

Finished

Serie A

Cremonese - Lazio

Italy Football

Stadium Stadio Giovanni Zini

Referee D. Chiffi

Capacity 20 034

Cremonese

1 : 2

Finished

Lazio

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Lazio — 41%

1 · Cremonese30.4%

X · draw28.9%

2 · Lazio40.7%

Model estimate: win Cremonese 30.4%, draw 28.9%, win Lazio 40.7%. Model favourite — Lazio.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cremonese - Lazio May 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lazio.

Strongest: Lazio - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.14 / X 3.19 / 2 2.34
1X2 market: Cremonese 30.1% / X 29.7% / Lazio 40.3%
Glicko: Cremonese 30.4% / X 28.9% / Lazio 40.7%
Total 2.5: over probability 26.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9%

1 30.1%

X 29.6%

2 40.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%

Over 2.5 44.8%

Under 2.5 55.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 4/5

Confidence 29.4%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Stadium Dzhovanni Tsini (Kremona, Italy), 10 618 zriteley (53% pri vmestimosti 20 034)

Referee Daniele Kiffi (Paduya)

Start 04.05.2026 16:30 UTC

Capacity 20,034

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Lazio 41%

💹 Market Lazio 4030%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Cremonese - Lazio

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Kremoneze - Latsio, 4 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Italy po futbolu (Seriya A) 2025-2026, 35 round. Kremoneze - Latsio, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:2

Events 16

Statistics 24

Lineups 96

min Event Player Team

21' 21' Substitution 1 | F. Baschirotto | assist/sub out: M. Bianchetti F. Baschirotto Cremonese

29' 29' Normal Goal | F. Bonazzoli Federico Bonazzoli Cremonese

40' 40' Yellow Card | O. Provstgaard Oliver Provstgaard Lazio

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Patric | assist/sub out: N. Rovella Patric Lazio

46' 46' Substitution 2 | D. Maldini | assist/sub out: T. Noslin Daniel Maldini Lazio

53' 53' Normal Goal | G. Isaksen G. Isaksen Lazio

60' 60' Substitution 3 | M. Zaccagni | assist/sub out: Pedro M. Zaccagni Lazio

61' 61' Substitution 4 | A. Zerbin | assist/sub out: M. Payero Alessio Zerbin Cremonese

Metric Cremonese Lazio SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.55 0.8 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 1 final

Shots off target 4 4 final

Shots on target 5 3 final

Udary vsego 13 8 final

Fouls soversheno 16 13 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final

Offsides 1 4 final

Cremonese #4 Patric, #10 M. Zaccagni, #13 Alessio Romagnoli, #17 N. Tavares, #18 G. Isaksen, #24 K. Taylor, #25 Oliver Provstgaard, #26 Toma Bašić, #27 Daniel Maldini, #40 E. Motta, #77 A. Marusic

Lazio #1 Emil Audero, #3 Giuseppe Pezzella, #5 Sebastiano Luperto, #6 F. Baschirotto, #7 Alessio Zerbin, #22 Romano Floriani Mussolini, #24 Filippo Terracciano, #29 Youssef Maleh, #33 Alberto Grassi, #90 Federico Bonazzoli, #99 Antonio Sanabria

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Marusic Cremonese Dribling popytki 2

A. Marusic Cremonese Edinoborstva vsego 1

A. Marusic Cremonese Edinoborstva vyigrano 3

A. Marusic Cremonese Fouls soversheno 1

A. Marusic Cremonese Seyvy 0

A. Marusic Cremonese Klyuchevye pasy 82

A. Marusic Cremonese Reyting (staryy) 6.6

A. Marusic Cremonese Otbory vsego 77

A. Przyborek Cremonese Seyvy 0

Alberto Grassi Cremonese football.player.assists 0

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Cremonese 31.5% 30.4%

Draw 30.1% 28.9% draw risk

Lazio 38.4% 40.7% market and model agree

xG - 1.00 : 1.20

Total 2.5 Over 26.4% - Under 73.7%

Model check - - Difference 0.02

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 30.4% / 28.9% / 40.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,407 / 1,549 Cremonese / Lazio

RD 72 / 70 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.34 market consensus · no value · model 40.7%

X 3.19 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 3.14 market consensus · no value · model 30.4%

Double chance

X2 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 69.6%

12 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 71.1%

1X 1.58 market consensus · no value · model 59.3%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.38 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.12 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.30 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.79 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.13 market consensus · no value · model 26.4%

Under 2.5 1.73 market consensus · value +27.4% · model 73.7%

Both teams to score

No 1.92 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.83 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	3.10 32.3%	3.32 30.1%	3.00 33.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.10 32.3%
X	3.20 31.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.00 33.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.25 30.8%	3.10 32.3%
	2.30 43.5%	2.44 41.0%	2.30 43.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.35 42.6%	2.30 43.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.91 52.4%	1.90 52.6%	1.95 51.3%	1.91 52.4%	1.91 52.4%	1.91 52.4%	1.90 52.6%	1.88 53.2%	1.93 51.8%
yes	1.83 54.6%	1.82 55.0%	1.83 54.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.82 55.0%	1.82 55.0%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.35 74.1%	1.38 72.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.38 72.5%	1.33 75.2%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.38 72.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%
home_draw	1.57 63.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.62 61.7%	1.57 63.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.07 93.5%	1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0	—	1.05 95.2%
Over 1.25	—	1.19 84.0%
Over 1.5	1.38 72.5%	1.33 75.2%
Over 1.75	—	1.43 69.9%
Over 2.0	—	1.57 63.7%
Over 2.25	—	1.93 51.8%
Over 2.5	2.10 47.6%	—
Over 3.5	3.80 26.3%	—
Over 4.5	7.50 13.3%	—
Under 0.5	8.00 12.5%	—
Under 1.5	3.00 33.3%	—
Under 2.5	1.70 58.8%	—
Under 3.5	1.25 80.0%	—
Under 4.5	1.08 92.6%	—

Match center

Cremonese

Founded 1903

Lazio

Founded 1900

Match center

Cremonese

JV J. Vardy Muscle Injury

FM F. Moumbagna Muscle Injury

Lazio

SG S. Gigot Ankle Injury

DC D. Cataldi Illness

Faris Mumbanya Travmirovannye Ivan Provedel Samuel Zhigo Alessio Furlanetto Mario Khila Diskvalifitsirovannye Matteo Kanchelleri CHAMP

Cremonese Founded: 1903

Lazio Founded: 1900

Match center

Cremonese

L D L L W

24.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Cremonese 0:4 Napoli

19.04 10:30 UTC Serie A

Cremonese 0:0 Torino

11.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Cremonese 0:1 Cagliari

05.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Cremonese 1:2 Bologna

21.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Cremonese 2:0 Parma

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

0.6 Scored

1.4 Conceded

4 Points

Lazio

D W L D W

27.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Lazio 3:3 Udinese

18.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Lazio 2:0 Napoli

13.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Lazio 0:1 Fiorentina

04.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Lazio 1:1 Parma

22.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Lazio 2:0 Bologna

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.0 Conceded

8 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyCremonese - Lazio

Cremonese

1 matches total

Lazio

Cremonese: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Lazio: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (20.12 17:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

20.12 17:00 UTC

Serie A

Cremonese

0:0

Lazio

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Cremonese

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Lazio

34 Games 34

6 Wins 12

10 Draws 12

18 Losses 10

26 Scored 37

51 Conceded 33

28 Points 48

97.9 Attacks 93

34.48 Dangerous attacks 41.48

0 Big chances 0

8.91 Shots on goal 10.97

3.21 Shots on target 4.03

ya 0.21 Goly Federiko Bonatstsoli Romano Floriani 1:0 29' Gustav Isaksen Teyyanni Noslin 1 53' Teyyanni Noslin Bulaye Dia 1:2 90+2' Nakazaniya Oliver Nilsen 40' Tommazo Barberi 75' Nunu Tavaresh 88'

Kremoneze Latsio 34 Games 34 6 Wins 12 10 Draws 12 18 Losses 10 26 Scored 37 51 Conceded 33 28 Points 48 97.9 Attacks 93 34.48 Dangerous attacks 41.48 0 Big chances 0 8.91 Shots on goal 10.97 3.21 Udary v stvor 4.03 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3.44 Uglovye 3.71 1.53 Offsaydy 0.82 13.65 Foly 10.35 46.09 % vladeniya myachom 50.18 1.91 Warnings 1.94 0.09 Sendoffs 0.21 Goly Federiko Bonatstsoli Romano Floriani 1:0 29' Gustav Isaksen Teyyanni Noslin 1 53' Teyyanni Noslin Bulaye Dia 1:2 90+2' Nakazaniya Oliver Nilsen 40' Tommazo Barberi 75' Nunu Tavaresh 88'