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Serie A
Serie A Italy
04.01.2026 14:00 UTC Match prediction
04.01.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Fiorentina - Cremonese

Italy Football
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
1 : 0
Finished
Cremonese
Cremonese

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Fiorentina - Cremonese January 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fiorentina.

Line favourite market consensus: Fiorentina. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.74 / X 3.73 / 2 4.85
  • 1X2 market: Fiorentina 54.8% / X 25.6% / Cremonese 19.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%
1 54.8%
X 25.6%
2 19.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.2%
Over 2.5 51.0%
Under 2.5 49.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 04.01.2026 14:00 UTC
Match center

Fiorentina - Cremonese

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.86 market consensus · line only
X 3.74 market consensus · line only
1 1.74 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.12 market consensus · line only
12 1.28 market consensus · line only
1X 1.19 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.11 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.62 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.35 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.55 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.88 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.96 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.96 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.80 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.75 57.1%
X 3.83 26.1%
5.01 20.0%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.75 57.1% 1.72 58.1% 1.79 55.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.78 56.2% 1.73 57.8%
X 3.70 27.0% 3.80 26.3% 3.86 25.9% 3.80 26.3% 3.85 26.0% 3.60 27.8%
4.60 21.7% 5.00 20.0% 5.06 19.8% 4.75 21.1% 5.00 20.0% 4.75 21.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Superbet
no 1.95 51.3% 2.04 49.0% 1.94 51.6% 1.95 51.3% 1.98 50.5% 1.91 52.4% 1.92 52.1% 2.02 49.5% 1.97 50.8%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.79 55.9% 1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.83 54.6% 1.79 55.9% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 2.00 50.0% 2.14 46.7% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.15 46.5% 2.19 45.7%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.18 84.8% 1.21 82.6% 1.18 84.8% 1.21 82.6% 1.20 83.3% 1.20 83.3%
Match center
Fiorentina
L W L L L
27.12 11:30 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 0:1 ParmaParma
21.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 5:1 UdineseUdinese
14.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:2 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
06.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:3 SassuoloSassuolo
30.11 17:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 0:2 AtalantaAtalanta
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.8 Conceded
3 Points
Cremonese
L D L W W
28.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Cremonese 0:2 NapoliNapoli
20.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Cremonese 0:0 LazioLazio
13.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Cremonese 0:1 TorinoTorino
07.12 11:30 UTC Serie A
Cremonese 2:0 LecceLecce
01.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Cremonese 3:1 BolognaBologna
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyFiorentina - Cremonese

Fiorentina
0 matches total
Cremonese
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history