Serie A Italy

13.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

13.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Finished

Serie A

Fiorentina - Lazio

Italy Futbol

Stadium Артемио Франки

Fiorentina

1 : 0

Finished

Lazio

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Fiorentina — 42%

1 · Fiorentina42.3%

X · draw28.9%

2 · Lazio28.7%

Model estimate: win Fiorentina 42.3%, draw 28.9%, win Lazio 28.7%. Model favourite — Fiorentina.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Fiorentina - Lazio 13 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fiorentina.

Strongest: Fiorentina - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.31 / X 3.14 / 2 3.34
1X2 market: Fiorentina 41.2% / X 30.3% / Lazio 28.5%
Glicko: Fiorentina 42.3% / X 28.9% / Lazio 28.7%
Total 2.5: over probability 53.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%

1 41.2%

X 30.3%

2 28.5%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%

Over 2.5 44.8%

Under 2.5 55.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 41.7%

Total ТМ 2.5

Score 1:1

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

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Match center

Start 13.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Stadium Артемио Франки (Флоренция)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Fiorentina 42%

💹 Market Fiorentina 4118%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Fiorentina - Lazio

Fiorentina: Победа 2.30 Fiorentina: Ничья 3.20 Lazio Победа: 3.40 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 2.20 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 1.67 Индивидуальный тотал голов Fiorentina больше 1.5: 2.38 Индивидуальный тотал голов Fiorentina меньше 1.5: 1.53 Индивидуальный тотал голов Lazio …

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:0

Events 15

Statistics 24

Lineups 42

min Event Player Team

28' 28' Normal Goal | R. Gosens | assist/sub out: J. Harrison Fiorentina

31' 31' Yellow Card | D. Rugani P. Neto Fiorentina

46' 46' Substitution 1 | T. Basic | assist/sub out: F. Dele-Bashiru C. Rivero Lazio

46' 46' Substitution 2 | M. Zaccagni | assist/sub out: T. Noslin Lazio

63' 63' Yellow Card | T. Noslin Lazio

64' 64' Penalty cancelled | T. Noslin Lazio

67' 67' Substitution 7 | B. Dia | assist/sub out: Pedro E. Slørdal Lazio

67' 67' Substitution 8 | M. Cancellieri | assist/sub out: G. Isaksen Lazio

Metric Fiorentina Lazio SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 0.61 1.33 final

Заблокированные удары 2 4 final

Удары мимо 4 3 final

Удары в створ 2 6 final

Удары всего 8 13 final

Фолы совершено 10 10 final

Желтые карточки 3 2 final

Офсайды 0 0 final

Fiorentina #4 Patric, #10 M. Zaccagni, #13 Alessio Romagnoli, #17 N. Tavares, #19 B. Dia, #22 Matteo Cancellieri, #24 K. Taylor, #25 Oliver Provstgaard, #26 Toma Bašić, #29 Manuel Lazzari, #40 E. Motta

Lazio #2 Dodô, #3 D. Rugani, #6 L. Ranieri, #8 R. Mandragora, #17 J. Harrison, #21 R. Gosens, #22 J. Fazzini, #27 C. Ndour, #43 David de Gea, #80 G. Fabbian, #91 R. Piccoli

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Przyborek Fiorentina Сейвы 0

Alessio Furlanetto Fiorentina Сейвы 0

Alessio Romagnoli Fiorentina football.player.assists 0

Alessio Romagnoli Fiorentina Дриблинг попытки 9

Alessio Romagnoli Fiorentina Единоборства всего 2

Alessio Romagnoli Fiorentina Единоборства выиграно 12

Alessio Romagnoli Fiorentina Сейвы 0

Alessio Romagnoli Fiorentina football.player.minutes_played 90

Alessio Romagnoli Fiorentina Ключевые пасы 98

Alessio Romagnoli Fiorentina Рейтинг (старый) 7.3

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Fiorentina 41.0% 42.3% market and model agree

Draw 31.1% 28.9% draw risk

Lazio 28.0% 28.7%

xG - 1.23 : 0.96

Total 2.5 Over 53.6% - Under 46.4%

Model check - - Difference 0.02

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 42.3% / 28.9% / 28.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,494 / 1,544 Fiorentina / Lazio

RD 73 / 72 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.34 market consensus · no value · model 28.7%

X 3.14 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.31 market consensus · no value · model 42.3%

Double chance

X2 1.60 market consensus · no value · model 57.7%

12 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 71.1%

1X 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 71.3%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.62 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.27 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.26 market consensus · line only

2 +1 6.18 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.13 market consensus · value +14.1% · model 53.6%

Under 2.5 1.73 market consensus · no value · model 46.4%

Both teams to score

No 1.92 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.82 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
П1	2.28 43.9%	2.31 43.3%	2.38 42.0%	2.30 43.5%	2.37 42.2%	2.30 43.5%
Х	3.10 32.3%	3.15 31.8%	3.25 30.8%	3.10 32.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.25 30.8%
П2	3.25 30.8%	3.40 29.4%	3.48 28.7%	3.40 29.4%	3.45 29.0%	3.25 30.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.95 51.3%	1.94 51.6%	1.90 52.6%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.91 52.4%	1.95 51.3%	1.88 53.2%	1.91 52.4%
yes	1.80 55.6%	1.88 53.2%	1.82 55.0%	1.80 55.6%	1.78 56.2%	1.83 54.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.82 55.0%	1.83 54.6%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	1.57 63.7%	1.65 60.6%	1.57 63.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.55 64.5%
home_away	1.30 76.9%	1.39 71.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.35 74.1%	1.30 76.9%	1.36 73.5%
home_draw	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.35 74.1%	1.33 75.2%	1.29 77.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	1.07 93.5%	—	1.04 96.2%
ТБ 0.75	—	—	1.06 94.3%
ТБ 1.0	—	—	1.08 92.6%
ТБ 1.25	—	—	1.22 82.0%
ТБ 1.5	1.38 72.5%	—	1.35 74.1%
ТБ 1.75	—	—	1.44 69.4%
ТБ 2.25	—	1.97 50.8%	—
ТБ 2.5	2.10 47.6%	—	—
ТБ 3.5	3.75 26.7%	—	—
ТБ 4.5	7.50 13.3%	—	—
ТМ 0.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
ТМ 1.5	3.00 33.3%	—	—
ТМ 2.25	—	1.93 51.8%	—
ТМ 2.5	1.70 58.8%	—	—
ТМ 3.5	1.25 80.0%	—	—
ТМ 4.5	1.08 92.6%	—	—

Match center

Fiorentina

Founded 1926

Lazio

Founded 1900

Match center

Fiorentina

MS M. Solomon Muscle Injury

NF N. Fagioli Yellow Cards

Lazio

SG S. Gigot Ankle Injury

P Patric Inactive

Fiorentina Founded: 1926

Lazio Founded: 1900

Match center

Fiorentina

W D W D L

04.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Fiorentina 1:0 Hellas Verona

22.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Fiorentina 1:1 Inter

16.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Fiorentina 4:1 Cremonese

08.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Fiorentina 0:0 Parma

02.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Fiorentina 0:3 Udinese

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.0 Conceded

8 Points

Lazio

D W W W L

04.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Lazio 1:1 Parma

22.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Lazio 2:0 Bologna

15.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Lazio 1:0 AC Milan

09.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Lazio 2:1 Sassuolo

01.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

Lazio 0:2 Torino

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.2 Scored

0.8 Conceded

10 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyFiorentina - Lazio

Fiorentina

2 matches total

Lazio

Fiorentina: 1 (50%)

Draws:1 (50%)

Lazio: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Fiorentina 2:1 (22.09 10:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 07.01 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (07.01 19:45 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 3

3 Goals conceded 4

Match history

07.01 19:45 UTC

Serie A

Fiorentina

2:2

Lazio

22.09 10:30 UTC

Serie A

Fiorentina

2:1

Lazio

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.