PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
Serie A
Serie A Italy
26.04.2026 10:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction
26.04.2026 10:30 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Fiorentina - Sassuolo

Italy Football
Stadium Artemio Franki
Referee L. Marinelli
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
0 : 0
Finished
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Fiorentina — 45%

1 · Fiorentina44.6%
X · draw27.4%
2 · Sassuolo28.0%

Model estimate: win Fiorentina 44.6%, draw 27.4%, win Sassuolo 28.0%. Model favourite — Fiorentina.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Fiorentina - Sassuolo April 26, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fiorentina.

Strongest: Fiorentina - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.93 / X 3.45 / 2 3.97
  • 1X2 market: Fiorentina 48.8% / X 27.3% / Sassuolo 23.9%
  • Glicko: Fiorentina 44.6% / X 27.4% / Sassuolo 28.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 77.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.0%
1 48.9%
X 27.3%
2 23.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 51.3%
Under 2.5 48.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 8/8
Confidence 47.6%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 26.04.2026 10:30 UTC
Stadium Artemio Franki (Florentsiya)
Referee L. Marinelli

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ?????  ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Fiorentina 45%
💹 Market Fiorentina 4879%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Fiorentina - Sassuolo

Fiorentina: Win 1.90 Fiorentina: Draw 3.50 Sassuolo Win: 3.75 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.80 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Fiorentina bolshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Fiorentina menshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Sas…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:0
Events 11
Statistics 24
Lineups 44
min Event Player Team
30' 30' Yellow Card | Luca Ranieri Fiorentina
57' 57' Yellow Card | Rolando Mandragora Fiorentina
65' 65' Substitution 1 | Cristian Volpato | assist/sub out: Luca Lipani Sassuolo
66' 66' Substitution 1 | Jack Harrison | assist/sub out: Jacopo Fazzini S. Quillahuaman Fiorentina
67' 67' Substitution 2 | Rolando Mandragora | assist/sub out: Giovanni Fabbian Fiorentina
74' 74' Substitution 2 | Ismael Koné | assist/sub out: Alieu Fadera Sassuolo
74' 74' Substitution 3 | Andrea Pinamonti | assist/sub out: M'Bala Nzola Sassuolo
75' 75' Substitution 3 | Luís Balbo | assist/sub out: Pietro Comuzzo Fiorentina
Metric Fiorentina Sassuolo SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.94 0.88 final
Zablokirovannye udary 5 5 final
Shots off target 12 5 final
Shots on target 5 1 final
Udary vsego 22 11 final
Fouls soversheno 13 12 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final
Offsides 1 1 final
Fiorentina #6 S. Walukiewicz, #7 Cristian Volpato, #13 S. Turati, #18 N. Matić, #21 J. Idzes, #23 U. Garcia, #42 K. Thorstvedt, #45 A. Laurienté, #80 T. Muharemovic, #90 I. Kone, #99 A. Pinamonti
Sassuolo #2 DodGґ, #3 D. Rugani, #6 L. Ranieri, #8 R. Mandragora, #10 A. GuG°mundsson, #17 J. Harrison, #19 M. Solomon, #27 C. Ndour, #43 David de Gea, #44 N. Fagioli
Player Team Metric SStats
A. GuG°mundsson Sassuolo football.player.assists 0
A. GuG°mundsson Sassuolo Dribling uspeshno 1
A. GuG°mundsson Sassuolo Edinoborstva vyigrano 3
A. GuG°mundsson Sassuolo Conceded golov 1
A. GuG°mundsson Sassuolo Seyvy 0
A. GuG°mundsson Sassuolo football.player.minutes_played 90
A. GuG°mundsson Sassuolo Tochnost pasov % 5
A. GuG°mundsson Sassuolo Klyuchevye pasy 30
A. GuG°mundsson Sassuolo Pasy vsego 2
A. GuG°mundsson Sassuolo Reyting (staryy) 6.3
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Fiorentina 50.1% 44.6% market and model agree
Draw 27.8% 27.4% draw risk
Sassuolo 22.1% 28.0%
xG - 1.35 : 1.01
Total 2.5 Over 77.8% - Under 22.2%
Model check - - Difference 0.06
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 44.6% / 27.4% / 28.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,502 / 1,523 Fiorentina / Sassuolo
RD 72 / 72 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.97 market consensus · no value · model 28.0%
X 3.45 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.93 market consensus · no value · model 44.6%
Double chance
X2 1.86 market consensus · weak value +3.1% · model 55.4%
12 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 72.6%
1X 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 72.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.46 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.88 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.30 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.86 market consensus · value +44.8% · model 77.8%
Under 2.5 1.96 market consensus · no value · model 22.2%
Both teams to score
No 2.05 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.90 52.6% 2.00 50.0% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3%
X 3.50 28.6% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4% 3.50 28.6% 3.60 27.8% 3.60 27.8%
3.85 26.0% 4.53 22.1% 3.70 27.0% 3.75 26.7% 3.85 26.0% 3.90 25.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.05 48.8% 2.08 48.1% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.06 48.5% 2.02 49.5%
yes 1.73 57.8% 1.68 59.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.73 57.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.68 59.5% 1.74 57.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.88 53.2% 1.80 55.6%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.37 73.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.22 82.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — 1.13 88.5%
Over 1.5 1.28 78.1% 1.23 81.3%
Over 1.75 — 1.30 76.9%
Over 2.0 — 1.38 72.5%
Over 2.25 — 1.61 62.1%
Over 2.5 1.85 54.1% —
Over 3.5 3.10 32.3% —
Over 4.5 5.75 17.4% —
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5% —
Under 1.5 3.55 28.2% —
Under 2.5 1.93 51.8% —
Under 3.5 1.35 74.1% —
Under 4.5 1.12 89.3% —
Match center
Fiorentina
Founded 1926
Sassuolo
Founded 1922
Match center
Fiorentina
D W W D W
20.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:1 LecceLecce
13.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:0 LazioLazio
04.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
22.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:1 InterInter
16.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 4:1 CremoneseCremonese
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.6 Conceded
11 Points
Sassuolo
W L W D L
17.04 16:30 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 2:1 ComoComo
12.04 10:30 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 1:2 GenoaGenoa
04.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 2:1 CagliariCagliari
21.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 1:1 JuventusJuventus
15.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 0:1 BolognaBologna
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.2 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyFiorentina - Sassuolo

Fiorentina
1 matches total
Sassuolo
Fiorentina: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Sassuolo: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Sassuolo 1:3 (06.12 14:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 06.12 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 1

Match history

06.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina
1:3
Sassuolo
Match center
? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.