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Serie A Brazil

05.04.2026 20:30 UTC Match prediction

05.04.2026 20:30 UTC

Finished

Serie A

Flamengo - Santos

Brazil Football

Stadium Marakana

Flamengo

3 : 1

Finished

Santos

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Flamengo — 64%

1 · Flamengo ✓ Pick63.8%

market70%

X · draw21.1%

market20%

2 · Santos15.1%

market11%

Model estimate: win Flamengo 63.8%, draw 21.1%, win Santos 15.1%. Model favourite — Flamengo.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Flamengo - Santos April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Flamengo.

Strongest: Flamengo - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.35 / X 4.76 / 2 8.75
1X2 market: Flamengo 69.5% / X 19.7% / Santos 10.7%
Glicko: Flamengo 63.8% / X 21.1% / Santos 15.1%
Total 2.5: over probability 83.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.5%

1 ✓ Pick 69.5%

X 19.7%

2 10.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.8%

Over 2.5 55.6%

Under 2.5 44.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 67.7%

Total Over 2.5

Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 05.04.2026 20:30 UTC

Stadium Marakana (Rio-de-Zhaneyro)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Flamengo 64%

💹 Market Flamengo 6953%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Flamengo - Santos

Flamengo: Win 1.40 Flamengo: Draw 4.33 Santos Win: 9.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.85 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.95 Individualnyy total golov Flamengo bolshe 1.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov Flamengo menshe 1.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Santos bolshe…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:1

Events 17

Statistics 24

Lineups 21

min Event Player Team

48' 48' Normal Goal | L. Diaz Santos

53' 53' Yellow Card | Gabriel Bontempo Santos

57' 57' Goal cancelled | Leo Ortiz Fabián Franco Flamengo

64' 64' Normal Goal | Pedro | assist/sub out: J. Carrascal Felipe Anderson Flamengo

65' 65' Substitution 7 | Samuel Lino | assist/sub out: Bruno Henrique Flamengo

65' 65' Substitution 8 | Evertton Araujo | assist/sub out: Lucas Paqueta Flamengo

67' 67' Yellow Card | A. Barreal O. Obradov Santos

71' 71' Penalty | Jorginho C. Matsima Flamengo

Metric Flamengo Santos SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.29 0.77 final

Zablokirovannye udary 8 10 final

Shots off target 7 5 final

Shots on target 4 2 final

Udary vsego 19 17 final

Fouls soversheno 2 12 final

Zheltye kartochki 0 2 final

Offsides 2 0 final

Flamengo #1 A. Rossi, #2 G. Varela, #3 Leo Ortiz, #4 Léo Pereira, #6 Ayrton Lucas, #10 G. de Arrascaeta, #15 J. Carrascal, #16 Samuel Lino, #52 Evertton Araujo

Santos #28 C. Oliva

Player Team Metric SStats

A. da Silva Ventura Flamengo Seyvy 0

A. Rossi Flamengo football.player.assists 0

A. Rossi Flamengo Dribling popytki 1

A. Rossi Flamengo Edinoborstva vyigrano 1

A. Rossi Flamengo Seyvy 1

A. Rossi Flamengo football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Rossi Flamengo Klyuchevye pasy 31

A. Rossi Flamengo Reyting 1

A. Rossi Flamengo Reyting (staryy) 6.7

A. Rossi Flamengo Otbory vsego 25

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Flamengo 71.0% 63.8% market and model agree

Draw 18.7% 21.1% draw risk

Santos 10.3% 15.1%

xG - 1.95 : 0.82

Total 2.5 Over 83.2% - Under 16.8%

Model check - - Difference 0.07

The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.07

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 63.8% / 21.1% / 15.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,601 / 1,473 Flamengo / Santos

RD 119 / 111 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 8.75 market consensus · no value · model 15.1%

X 4.76 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 63.8%

Double chance

X2 3.09 market consensus · no value · model 36.2%

12 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 78.9%

1X 1.07 market consensus · no value · model 84.9%

Handicap

2 -0.5 3.15 market consensus · line only

2 -1 2.36 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.37 market consensus · line only

1 -1 1.53 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.70 market consensus · value +41.5% · model 83.2%

Under 2.5 2.13 market consensus · no value · model 16.8%

Both teams to score

No 1.76 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.96 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
	1.35 74.1%	1.38 72.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.38 72.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%
X	4.55 22.0%	4.76 21.0%	4.50 22.2%	4.75 21.1%	5.00 20.0%	4.80 20.8%
	9.00 11.1%	9.10 11.0%	8.50 11.8%	9.00 11.1%	8.50 11.8%	8.50 11.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet	William Hill
no	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.78 56.2%	1.75 57.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.73 57.8%	1.75 57.1%
yes	1.91 52.4%	1.97 50.8%	2.00 50.0%	1.98 50.5%	1.95 51.3%	1.97 50.8%	1.98 50.5%	1.95 51.3%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	3.00 33.3%	3.08 32.5%	3.00 33.3%	3.15 31.8%	3.25 30.8%	3.10 32.3%
home_away	1.14 87.7%	1.19 84.0%	1.18 84.8%	1.18 84.8%	1.17 85.5%	1.09 91.7%
home_draw	1.06 94.3%	1.05 95.2%	1.08 92.6%	1.09 91.7%	1.07 93.5%	1.08 92.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.04 96.2%	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0	—	1.00 100.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.09 91.7%
Over 1.5	1.22 82.0%	1.18 84.8%
Over 1.75	—	1.23 81.3%
Over 2.0	—	1.29 77.5%
Over 2.25	—	1.48 67.6%
Over 2.5	1.67 59.9%	1.73 57.8%
Over 3.5	2.70 37.0%	—
Over 4.5	4.75 21.1%	—
Under 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—
Under 1.5	4.20 23.8%	—
Under 2.5	2.15 46.5%	—
Under 3.5	1.45 69.0%	—
Under 4.5	1.18 84.8%	—

Match center

Flamengo

Founded 1895

Santos

Founded 2010

Match center

Flamengo

S Saúl Ankle Injury

AS Alex Sandro Injury

Santos

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Flamengo Founded: 1895

Santos Founded: 2010

Match center

Full head-to-head historyFlamengo - Santos

Flamengo

0 matches total

Santos

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.