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Serie A
Serie A Italy
05.05.2025 18:45 UTC Match prediction
05.05.2025 18:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Genoa - AC Milan

Italy Football
Genoa
Genoa
1 : 2
Finished
AC Milan
AC Milan

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Genoa - AC Milan May 5, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AC Milan.

Line favourite market consensus: AC Milan. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.04 / X 3.94 / 2 1.73
  • 1X2 market: Genoa 19.3% / X 24.6% / AC Milan 56.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 52.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.0%
1 19.3%
X 24.6%
2 56.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 2.6%
Over 2.5 52.7%
Under 2.5 47.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 05.05.2025 18:45 UTC
Match center

Genoa - AC Milan

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.73 market consensus · line only
X 3.94 market consensus · line only
1 5.04 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.19 market consensus · line only
12 1.30 market consensus · line only
1X 2.25 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.85 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.06 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
5.04 19.8%
X 3.94 25.4%
1.73 57.8%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.19 84.0%
home_away 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 2.25 44.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 2.5 1.85 54.1%
Under 2.5 2.06 48.5%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.80 26.3%
1.30 76.9%
Match center
Genoa
L L D W L
27.04 10:30 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:1 ComoComo
23.04 16:30 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:2 LazioLazio
13.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
04.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:0 UdineseUdinese
31.10 17:30 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:1 FiorentinaFiorentina
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
4 Points
AC Milan
W L W D L
27.04 10:30 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 2:0 Venezia
20.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 0:1 AtalantaAtalanta
11.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 4:0 UdineseUdinese
05.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 2:2 FiorentinaFiorentina
29.10 19:45 UTC Serie A
AC Milan 0:2 NapoliNapoli
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyGenoa - AC Milan

Genoa
0 matches total
AC Milan
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history