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Serie A Italy

37 round 17.05.2026 10:00 UTC Match prediction

17.05.2026 10:00 UTC 37 round

Finished

Serie A

Genoa - AC Milan

Italy Football

Genoa

1 : 2

Finished

AC Milan

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Genoa - AC Milan May 17, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AC Milan.

Line favourite market consensus: AC Milan. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.10 / X 3.77 / 2 1.68
1X2 market: Genoa 18.6% / X 25.1% / AC Milan 56.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 52.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7%

1 18.6%

X 25.1%

2 56.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%

Over 2.5 47.8%

Under 2.5 52.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: Genoa

Main outcome Genoa

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 60.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Luidzhi Ferraris (Genuya, Italy), 31 302 zritelya (85% pri vmestimosti 36 703)

Referee Simone Sodza

Start 17.05.2026 10:00 UTC

Match center

Genoa - AC Milan

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Dzhenoa - Milan, 17 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Italy po futbolu (Seriya A) 2025-2026, 37 round. Dzhenoa - Milan, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:2

Events 16

Statistics 22

Lineups 47

min Event Player Team

48' 48' Yellow Card | J. Bijlow J. Bijlow Genoa

50' 50' Penalty | C. Nkunku Christopher Nkunku AC Milan

62' 62' Yellow Card | M. Gabbia Matteo Gabbia AC Milan

63' 63' Yellow Card | Vitinha Vítinha Genoa

64' 64' Substitution 1 | T. Baldanzi | assist/sub out: J. Ekhator T. Baldanzi Genoa

68' 68' Substitution 1 | S. Gimenez | assist/sub out: N. Fullkrug S. Gimenez AC Milan

68' 68' Substitution 2 | Y. Fofana | assist/sub out: S. Ricci Youssouf Fofana AC Milan

72' 72' Yellow Card | F. Tomori F. Tomori AC Milan

Metric Genoa AC Milan SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.32 1.75 final

Zablokirovannye udary 2 1 final

Shots off target 7 1 final

Shots on target 2 6 final

Udary vsego 11 8 final

Fouls soversheno 8 19 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 3 final

Offsides 1 1 final

Genoa #9 Vítinha, #16 J. Bijlow, #17 R. Malinovskyi, #22 J. Vasquez, #29 L. Colombo, #4 Alexsandro Amorim, #8 T. Baldanzi, #34 S. Otoa, #27 A. Marcandalli, #32 M. Frendrup, #77 M. Ellertsson

AC Milan #16 M. Maignan, #18 Christopher Nkunku, #31 S. Pavlovic, #33 D. Bartesaghi, #7 S. Gimenez, #12 A. Rabiot, #46 Matteo Gabbia, #23 F. Tomori, #30 A. Jashari, #19 Youssouf Fofana, #24 Zachary Athekame

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Marcandalli Genoa football.player.assists 0

A. Marcandalli Genoa football.player.minutes_played 90

Aarón Martín Genoa football.player.assists 0

Aarón Martín Genoa football.player.minutes_played 10

Alexsandro Amorim Genoa football.player.assists 0

Alexsandro Amorim Genoa football.player.minutes_played 89

C. Ekuban Genoa football.player.assists 0

C. Ekuban Genoa football.player.minutes_played 16

J. Bijlow Genoa football.player.assists 0

J. Bijlow Genoa football.player.minutes_played 90

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.68 market consensus · line only

X 3.77 market consensus · line only

1 5.10 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.16 market consensus · line only

12 1.25 market consensus · line only

1X 2.15 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.18 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.66 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.21 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.99 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.82 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.84 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	4.60 21.7%	5.52 18.1%	4.80 20.8%	5.00 20.0%	5.50 18.2%	5.00 20.0%
X	3.75 26.7%	3.96 25.3%	3.60 27.8%	3.90 25.6%	3.95 25.3%	3.75 26.7%
	1.71 58.5%	1.72 58.1%	1.67 59.9%	1.65 60.6%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.80 55.6%	1.78 56.2%	1.83 54.6%	1.78 56.2%	1.79 55.9%	1.92 52.1%
yes	1.91 52.4%	1.92 52.1%	1.83 54.6%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.91 52.4%	1.91 52.4%	1.92 52.1%	1.82 55.0%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.17 85.5%	1.18 84.8%	1.18 84.8%	1.18 84.8%	1.18 84.8%	1.13 88.5%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.29 77.5%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	2.10 47.6%	2.25 44.4%	2.05 48.8%	2.00 50.0%	2.25 44.4%	2.10 47.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0	—	1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25	—	1.17 85.5%
Over 1.5	1.33 75.2%	1.29 77.5%
Over 1.75	—	1.38 72.5%
Over 2.0	—	1.48 67.6%
Over 2.25	—	1.82 55.0%
Over 2.5	2.00 50.0%	—
Over 3.5	3.50 28.6%	—
Over 4.5	7.00 14.3%	—
Under 0.5	9.00 11.1%	—
Under 1.5	3.30 30.3%	—
Under 2.5	1.80 55.6%	—
Under 3.5	1.28 78.1%	—
Under 4.5	1.09 91.7%	—

Match center

Genoa

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

AC Milan

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Zhunior Messyas Maksvell Korne Zhan Onana Bruk Norton-Kaffi Travmirovannye Rafael Leau Pervis Estupinyan Aleksis Salemakers CHAMP

Match center

Genoa

D D L W W

10.05 13:00 UTC Serie A

Genoa 0:0 Fiorentina

02.05 18:45 UTC Serie A

Genoa 0:0 Atalanta

26.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Genoa 0:2 Como

19.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Genoa 2:1 Pisa

12.04 10:30 UTC Serie A

Genoa 2:1 Sassuolo

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

0.8 Scored

0.8 Conceded

8 Points

AC Milan

L L D W L

10.05 18:45 UTC Serie A

AC Milan 2:3 Atalanta

03.05 13:00 UTC Serie A

AC Milan 0:2 Sassuolo

26.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

AC Milan 0:0 Juventus

19.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

AC Milan 1:0 Hellas Verona

11.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

AC Milan 0:3 Udinese

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

0.6 Scored

1.6 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyGenoa - AC Milan

Genoa

2 matches total

AC Milan

Genoa: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (50%)

AC Milan: 1 (50%)

Biggest win AC Milan 1:2 (05.05 18:45 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 05.05 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (08.01 19:45 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 3

3 Goals conceded 2

Match history

08.01 19:45 UTC

Serie A

Genoa

1:1

AC Milan

05.05 18:45 UTC

Serie A

Genoa

1:2

AC Milan

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Genoa

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 AC Milan

36 Games 36

10 Wins 19

11 Draws 10

15 Losses 7

40 Scored 50

48 Conceded 32

41 Points 67

89.31 Attacks 102.32

36.5 Dangerous attacks 48.12

0 Big chances 0

11.03 Shots on goal 13

3.81 Shots on target 4.28

1.58 0.08 Sendoffs 0.08 Goly Kristofer Nkunku 0:1 51' Zakari Atekame Kristian Pulishich 0:2 81' Khoan Vaskes 1:2 87' Nakazaniya Yustin Beylo 49' Matteo Gabbia 63' Vitor Oliveyra 64' Fikayo Tomori 71' Samuele Richchi 86'

Dzhenoa Milan 36 Games 36 10 Wins 19 11 Draws 10 15 Losses 7 40 Scored 50 48 Conceded 32 41 Points 67 89.31 Attacks 102.32 36.5 Dangerous attacks 48.12 0 Big chances 0 11.03 Shots on goal 13 3.81 Udary v stvor 4.28 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3.61 Uglovye 4.25 1.28 Offsaydy 1.81 12.58 Foly 10.06 47.69 % vladeniya myachom 52.25 1.67 Warnings 1.58 0.08 Sendoffs 0.08 Goly Kristofer Nkunku 0:1 51' Zakari Atekame Kristian Pulishich 0:2 81' Khoan Vaskes 1:2 87' Nakazaniya Yustin Beylo 49' Matteo Gabbia 63' Vitor Oliveyra 64' Fikayo Tomori 71' Samuele Richchi 86'