Serie A
Serie A Italy
25.01.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Genoa - Bologna

Italy Futbol
Genoa
Genoa
3 : 2
Finished
Bologna
Bologna

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Genoa - Bologna 25 января 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bologna.

Line favourite market consensus: Bologna. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.27 / X 3.00 / 2 2.42
  • 1X2 market: Genoa 29.1% / X 31.7% / Bologna 39.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 60.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 29.1%
X 31.7%
2 39.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 39.7%
Under 2.5 60.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 25.01.2026 14:00 UTC
Match center

Genoa - Bologna

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.43 market consensus · line only
X 3.01 market consensus · line only
1 3.28 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.35 market consensus · line only
12 1.38 market consensus · line only
1X 1.57 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.36 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.10 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.38 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.96 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.40 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.58 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.80 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.97 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 3.40 29.4%
Х 3.09 32.4%
П2 2.44 41.0%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
П1 3.25 30.8% 3.35 29.9% 3.42 29.2% 3.10 32.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3%
Х 2.96 33.8% 3.00 33.3% 3.11 32.2% 2.88 34.7% 3.00 33.3% 3.05 32.8%
П2 2.36 42.4% 2.44 41.0% 2.49 40.2% 2.40 41.7% 2.40 41.7% 2.40 41.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.77 56.5% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.85 54.1%
yes 1.95 51.3% 1.96 51.0% 1.96 51.0% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.93 51.8% 1.95 51.3% 1.96 51.0% 2.02 49.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.42 70.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.41 70.9%
home_draw 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.60 62.5%
Match center
Genoa
D W D D L
18.01 11:30 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:0 ParmaParma
12.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Genoa 3:0 CagliariCagliari
08.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:1 AC MilanAC Milan
03.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:1 PisaPisa
29.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:3 AS RomaAS Roma
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.0 Conceded
6 Points
Bologna
L W D L L
18.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 1:2 FiorentinaFiorentina
15.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Bologna 3:2 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
10.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 1:1 ComoComo
07.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Bologna 0:2 AtalantaAtalanta
04.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Bologna 1:3 InterInter
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
2.0 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyGenoa - Bologna

Genoa
3 matches total
Bologna
Genoa: 1 (33.3%)
Draws:1 (33.3%)
Bologna: 1 (33.4%)
Biggest win Genoa 3:1 (24.05 16:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (3:1, 24.05 16:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (19.10 13:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

6 Goals scored 5
5 Goals conceded 6

Match history

20.09 13:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa
1:2
Bologna
24.05 16:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa
3:1
Bologna
19.10 13:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa
2:2
Bologna