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Serie A Italy

26.04.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction

26.04.2026 13:00 UTC

Finished

Serie A

Genoa - Como

Italy Football

Stadium Luidzhi Ferraris

Genoa

0 : 2

Finished

Como

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Como — 56%

1 · Genoa19.7%

X · draw24.6%

2 · Como ✓ Pick55.7%

Model estimate: win Genoa 19.7%, draw 24.6%, win Como 55.7%. Model favourite — Como.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Genoa - Como April 26, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Como.

Strongest: Como - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.49 / X 3.68 / 2 1.77
1X2 market: Genoa 21.0% / X 25.7% / Como 53.3%
Glicko: Genoa 19.7% / X 24.6% / Como 55.7%
Total 2.5: over probability 75.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9%

1 21.0%

X 25.6%

2 ✓ Pick 53.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%

Over 2.5 47.2%

Under 2.5 52.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 8/8

Confidence 55.0%

Total Over 2.5

Score 1:2

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 26.04.2026 13:00 UTC

Stadium Luidzhi Ferraris (Genuya)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Como 56%

💹 Market Como 5330%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Genoa - Como

Genoa: Win 4.75 Genoa: Draw 3.50 Como Win: 1.73 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Genoa bolshe 0.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov Genoa menshe 0.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Como bolshe 1.5: 1.83 Indiv…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:2

Events 16

Statistics 24

Lineups 45

min Event Player Team

10' 10' Normal Goal | Anastasios Douvikas | assist/sub out: Lucas Da Cunha Como

37' 37' Yellow Card | Diego Carlos Alessandro Cardinali Como

39' 39' Yellow Card | Assane Diao Como

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Justin Bijlow | assist/sub out: Nicola Leali Genoa

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Nico Paz | assist/sub out: Maxence Caqueret Como

57' 57' Substitution 2 | Sebastian Otoa | assist/sub out: Junior Messias Genoa

57' 57' Substitution 2 | Diego Carlos | assist/sub out: Marc Kempf Alessandro Cardinali Como

68' 68' Normal Goal | Assane Diao | assist/sub out: Maxence Caqueret Como

Metric Genoa Como SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.59 1.06 final

Zablokirovannye udary 3 2 final

Shots off target 5 4 final

Shots on target 1 2 final

Udary vsego 9 8 final

Fouls soversheno 12 15 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final

Offsides 3 3 final

Genoa #4 Alexsandro Amorim, #5 L. Ostigard, #9 Vítinha, #16 J. Bijlow, #20 S. Sabelli, #21 J. Ekhator, #22 J. Vasquez, #27 A. Marcandalli, #32 M. Frendrup, #34 S. Otoa, #77 M. Ellertsson

Como #1 Jean Butez, #3 A. Valle, #10 N. Paz, #11 A. Douvikas, #14 Jacobo Ramón, #20 M. Baturina, #23 M. Perrone, #28 I. Smolcic, #33 Lucas Da Cunha, #34 Diego Carlos, #38 A. Diao

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Marcandalli Genoa football.player.assists 0

A. Marcandalli Genoa Dribling popytki 7

A. Marcandalli Genoa Edinoborstva vsego 3

A. Marcandalli Genoa Edinoborstva vyigrano 10

A. Marcandalli Genoa Fouls soversheno 1

A. Marcandalli Genoa Seyvy 0

A. Marcandalli Genoa football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Marcandalli Genoa Klyuchevye pasy 54

A. Marcandalli Genoa Reyting (staryy) 6.9

A. Marcandalli Genoa Bloki 3

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Genoa 20.9% 19.7%

Draw 24.9% 24.6% draw risk

Como 54.2% 55.7% market and model agree

xG - 0.86 : 1.64

Total 2.5 Over 75.4% - Under 24.6%

Model check - - Difference 0.02

The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 19.7% / 24.6% / 55.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,497 / 1,632 Genoa / Como

RD 72 / 73 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.77 market consensus · no value · model 55.7%

X 3.68 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 4.49 market consensus · no value · model 19.7%

Double chance

X2 1.19 market consensus · no value · model 80.3%

12 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 75.4%

1X 2.03 market consensus · no value · model 44.3%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.20 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.02 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.72 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.39 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.01 market consensus · weak value +51.6% · model 75.4%

Under 2.5 1.80 market consensus · no value · model 24.6%

Both teams to score

No 1.85 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.89 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	4.60 21.7%	4.60 21.7%	4.00 25.0%	4.75 21.1%	4.55 22.0%	4.75 21.1%
X	3.65 27.4%	3.98 25.1%	3.50 28.6%	3.50 28.6%	3.80 26.3%	3.80 26.3%
	1.73 57.8%	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.73 57.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.75 57.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.83 54.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%	1.91 52.4%	1.82 55.0%	1.87 53.5%	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.86 53.8%
yes	1.90 52.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.91 52.4%	1.91 52.4%	1.93 51.8%	1.87 53.5%	1.85 54.1%	1.87 53.5%	1.88 53.2%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.18 84.8%	1.24 80.7%	1.22 82.0%	1.18 84.8%	1.22 82.0%	1.14 87.7%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.29 77.5%	1.29 77.5%	1.28 78.1%	1.26 79.4%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	2.05 48.8%	2.09 47.9%	1.91 52.4%	2.05 48.8%	2.10 47.6%	2.00 50.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25	—	1.16 86.2%
Over 1.5	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%
Over 1.75	—	1.38 72.5%
Over 2.0	—	1.49 67.1%
Over 2.25	—	1.74 57.5%
Over 2.5	2.00 50.0%	—
Over 3.5	3.55 28.2%	—
Over 4.5	7.00 14.3%	—
Under 0.5	9.00 11.1%	—
Under 1.5	3.30 30.3%	—
Under 2.5	1.80 55.6%	—
Under 3.5	1.28 78.1%	—
Under 4.5	1.09 91.7%	—

Match center

Genoa

Founded 1893

Como

Founded 1907

Match center

Genoa

W W L L W

19.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Genoa 2:1 Pisa

12.04 10:30 UTC Serie A

Genoa 2:1 Sassuolo

06.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Genoa 0:2 Juventus

20.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Genoa 0:2 Udinese

15.03 11:30 UTC Serie A

Genoa 2:0 Hellas Verona

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.2 Conceded

9 Points

Como

L L D W W

17.04 16:30 UTC Serie A

Como 1:2 Sassuolo

12.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Como 3:4 Inter

06.04 10:30 UTC Serie A

Como 0:0 Udinese

22.03 11:30 UTC Serie A

Como 5:0 Pisa

15.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

Como 2:1 AS Roma

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

2.2 Scored

1.4 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyGenoa - Como

Genoa

2 matches total

Como

Genoa: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (50%)

Como: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Como 0:1 (27.04 10:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 15.09 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (15.09 18:45 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

15.09 18:45 UTC

Serie A

Genoa

1:1

Como

27.04 10:30 UTC

Serie A

Genoa

0:1

Como

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.