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Serie A
Serie A Italy
09.11.2025 14:00 UTC Match prediction
09.11.2025 14:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Genoa - Fiorentina

Italy Football
Genoa
Genoa
2 : 2
Finished
Fiorentina
Fiorentina

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Genoa - Fiorentina November 9, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Genoa.

Line favourite market consensus: Genoa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.80 / X 2.88 / 2 2.89
  • 1X2 market: Genoa 34.1% / X 33.0% / Fiorentina 32.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 64.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 34.0%
X 33.1%
2 32.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%
Over 2.5 35.3%
Under 2.5 64.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 09.11.2025 14:00 UTC
Match center

Genoa - Fiorentina

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.89 market consensus · line only
X 2.89 market consensus · line only
1 2.80 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.44 market consensus · line only
12 1.41 market consensus · line only
1X 1.43 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.46 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.14 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.79 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.64 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.69 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.47 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.68 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.12 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.88 34.7%
X 2.95 33.9%
2.94 34.0%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.75 36.4% 2.78 36.0% 2.88 34.7% 2.70 37.0% 2.90 34.5% 2.82 35.5%
X 2.80 35.7% 2.95 33.9% 3.00 33.3% 2.88 34.7% 2.75 36.4% 2.90 34.5%
2.94 34.0% 2.93 34.1% 2.98 33.6% 2.80 35.7% 2.90 34.5% 2.85 35.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.67 59.9% 1.68 59.5% 1.66 60.2% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.64 61.0% 1.71 58.5%
yes 2.10 47.6% 2.19 45.7% 2.12 47.2% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.07 48.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.12 47.2% 2.23 44.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.42 70.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.47 68.0%
home_away 1.36 73.5% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.39 71.9% 1.44 69.4%
home_draw 1.40 71.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.44 69.4%
Match center
Genoa
W L L D L
03.11 17:30 UTC Serie A
Genoa 2:1 SassuoloSassuolo
29.10 19:45 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:2 CremoneseCremonese
26.10 11:30 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:2 TorinoTorino
19.10 13:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:0 ParmaParma
05.10 16:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:2 NapoliNapoli
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
4 Points
Fiorentina
L L D L L
02.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 0:1 LecceLecce
29.10 19:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 0:3 InterInter
26.10 17:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 2:2 BolognaBologna
19.10 18:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:2 AC MilanAC Milan
05.10 13:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:2 AS RomaAS Roma
0 Wins
1 Draws
4 Losses
0.8 Scored
2.0 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyGenoa - Fiorentina

Genoa
1 matches total
Fiorentina
Genoa: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Fiorentina: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Fiorentina 0:1 (31.10 17:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 31.10 17:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 0

Match history

31.10 17:30 UTC Serie A
Genoa
0:1
Fiorentina