AI verdict
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Genoa. Full breakdown below.
Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
Serie A
Genoa go head-to-head with Napoli on August 22, 2026 in the Serie A, Italy.
Recent form (W-D-L): Genoa 2-1-2, Napoli 3-1-1. These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI neural-network verdict.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Genoa — 46%
Model estimate: win Genoa 46.3%, draw 21.4%, win Napoli 32.3%. Model favourite — Genoa.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: Fonbet line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| no | 1.75 57.1% |
| yes | 2.02 49.5% |
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.35 74.1% |
| 1x | 2.00 50.0% |
| x2 | 1.19 84.0% |
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 1.45 69.0% | |
| 1.32 75.8% | |
| 1.07 93.5% | |
| 1.05 95.2% | |
| 3.40 29.4% | |
| 2.75 36.4% | |
| 3.10 32.3% | |
| 6.30 15.9% | |
| 7.20 13.9% | |
| 1.27 78.7% |
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.06 94.3% |
| Over 1 | 1.10 90.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.40 71.4% |
| Over 2 | 1.67 59.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.25 44.4% |
| Over 3 | 3.15 31.8% |
| Over 3.5 | 3.80 26.3% |
| Over 4 | 5.80 17.2% |
| Over 4.5 | 6.60 15.2% |
| Under 0.5 | 6.60 15.2% |
| Under 1 | 5.50 18.2% |
| Under 1.5 | 2.75 36.4% |
| Under 2 | 2.15 46.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.65 60.6% |
| Under 3 | 1.30 76.9% |
| Under 3.5 | 1.22 82.0% |
| Under 4 | 1.08 92.6% |
| Under 4.5 | 1.06 94.3% |
Genoa
Napoli
Genoa
Napoli
Full head-to-head history: Genoa - Napoli
Seriya A
Napoli
Seriya A
Napoli
Seriya A
Napoli
The Genoa - Napoli breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
August 22, 2026.
